International Test match rugby returned last weekend and what a fascinating round of action it was. The All Blacks had a scare in Auckland before they proved why they are peerless when it comes to 80-minute performances with an 18-point victory over Wales. England came from behind against the Wallabies in Brisbane to record a comfortable 11-point victory and Ireland upset the Springboks, despite playing the majority of the match with 14-men to record their first ever win in South Africa. What usually sets the southern hemisphere apart is their ability to bounce back as they very rarely record back-to-back losses against northern hemisphere opposition, so it will be interesting to see how the Wallabies and the Springboks perform, whereas, I only expect the All Blacks to increase the margin of victory in Wellington. Last week’s best bets went two from three, so fingers crossed for another profitable round after a rough end to the Super Rugby season. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.

Best Bet 1: England Saxons +1.5 (vs South Africa ‘A’) @ $1.80 – Bet365
Best Bet 2: New Zealand 2nd Half Handicap – 10.5 (vs Wales) @ $1.83 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Australia to win (vs England) @ $1.80 – Luxbet
Best Bet 4: South Africa vs Ireland – Bet to be posted on Twitter when all markets are released

New Zealand ($1.07) vs Wales ($9.00)

The All Blacks and the Welsh Dragons will clash in the second game of the series at Westpac Stadium in Wellington on Saturday evening. Last weekend in Auckland, Wales gave the All Blacks one hell of a scare, heading into halftime with an 18-15 lead. However, as the All Blacks have done so many times before, they managed to break clear of the visitors to win 39-21, on the back of a five tries to two performance.

New Zealand: Joe Moody, Dane Coles, Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Jerome Kaino, Sam Cane, Kieran Read, Aaron Smith, Aaron Cruden, Ben Smith, Ryan Crotty, Malakai Fekitoa, Waisake Naholo, Israel Dagg

Replacements: Nathan Harris, Wyatt Crockett, Charlie Faumauina, Patrick Tuipulotu, Ardie Savea, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Seta Tamanivalu

Wales: Gethin Jenkins, Ken Owens, Samson Lee, Luke Charteris, Alun Wyn Jones, Ross Moriarty, Sam Warburton, Toby Faletau, Rhys Webb, Dan Biggar, Hallam Amos, Jamie Roberts, Jonathan Davies, Liam Williams, Rhys Patchell

Replacements: Scott Baldwin, Rob Evans, Tomas Francis, Bradley Davies, Ellis Jenkins, Gareth Davies, Rhys Priestland, Scott Williams

Prediction: 

Last weekend, New Zealand had a 91% success rate with their lineout and 100% with their scrum, which allowed them to dominate with ball in hand. They made almost double the metres the Welsh made, beat twice as many defenders (31) and made 18 offloads. Interestingly, Wales made an extra line break (14), but failed to capitalise showing a combination of their lack of finishing prowess and the All Blacks effective scramble defence. On the other hand, Wales missed 31 tackles to the All Blacks 17 and they also had issues at lineout time, only winning 70% on their own throw and although they won all of their scrums, the quality of the ball they received had them on the back foot.

Coach Steve Hansen has made just the two changes to his team this week, bringing in Sam Whitelock for Luke Romano, with the latter dropping out of the match day 23. Israel Dagg comes into fullback, shifting Ben Smith to the wing and pushing Julian Savea out of the squad. Warren Gatland has also made two changes to his squad with lock Luke Charteris who captained Wales during the week, coming in for Bradley Davies and Rhys Patchell starts at fullback shifting Liam Williams to George North’s vacant wing spot. This is unfortunate for Wales given that they will be without their most potent attacking threat for the rest of the tour after picking up a hamstring injury in Auckland. North made 121 running metres at Eden Park and managed four clean line breaks, which is no mean feat against the All Blacks.

If Wales were ever going to win a match in New Zealand this year it was going to be the first one at Eden Park. The All Blacks will be spending extra time this week analyzing where they let holes open up in defence at Eden Park and with a few small corrections, the Welsh might feel suffocated on attack. This will play right into New Zealand’s hand. Wales have conceded 16 tries from their three matches this summer and I expect the All Blacks to add at least another handful to that tally en route to a comfortable win in what will be Israel Dagg’s and Ben Smith’s 50th Test matches.

Predicted result: New Zealand to win by at least 20 @ $1.07 – Luxbet

Best Bet 2: New Zealand 2nd Half Handicap – 10.5 (vs Wales) @ $1.83 – Sportsbet

Australia ($1.80) vs England ($2.00)

AAMI Park in Melbourne will be the venue for the all-important second Test match between Australia and England on Saturday night. England triumphed 39 – 28 in Brisbane last weekend on the back of a solid set piece and a fine performance by Owen Farrell, who bagged 24 points. The Wallabies did manage to score four tries to three, but it was their ill-discipline and England’s better game management that won the opening Test match of the series.

Australia: James Slipper, Stephen Moore (captain), Sekope Kepu, Rory Arnold, Sam Carte, Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper, Sean McMahon, Nick Phipps, Bernard Foley, Rob Horne, Samu Kerevi, Tevita Kuridrani, Dane Haylett-Petty, Israel Folau

Replacements: Not finalised at time of writing

England: Mako Vunipola, Dylan Hartley, Dan Cole, Maro Itoje, George Kruis, Chris Robshaw, James Haskell, Billy Vunipola, Ben Youngs, George Forde, Jack Nowell, Owen Farrell, Jonathan Joseph, Anthony Watson, Mike Brown

Replacements: Jamie George, Matt Mullan, Paul Hill, Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes, Jack Clifford, Danny Care, Elliot Day

Prediction: 

Not even a quarter into the match, the Wallabies held a 10 – 0 lead and simply looked like running away with it. It was a masterstroke from Eddie Jones to bring on George Ford for Luther Burrell to have another playmaker and sure up the defence. Australia still dominated all attacking statistics including possession (64%:36%), carries (134:67), running metres (454:311), defenders beaten (22:8), clean breaks (11:10), passes (194:65), offloads (13:3), whilst they both made a similar amount of turnovers (12:11). Defensively, the tourists had to make 49 more tackles (72:121) and missed more tackles (8:22). Australia won 9/10 lineouts and 4/5 scrums, whereas England won 13/15 lineouts and lost one of their two scrums. The difference was the dsicpline, where Australia conceded 15 penalties to England’s eight, gave away a yellow card (Scott Sio). Additionally, England were superior in the goal kicking department with Australia successful on three out of six attempts, whereas England nailed nine out of 10.

Michael Cheika has opted for four changes this week with James Slipper and Sekope Kepu coming in for Scott Sio and Greg Holmes respectively. Rob Simmons has struggled to overcome a back injury and has been replaced by Brumbies lock Sam Carter, with the other change seeing Sean McMahon coming in for the injured David Pocock. There has been a lot of talk in the media about how much the Wallabies will miss Pocock, but I’m not so sure of that. Sean McMahon has been in fantastic form over the past twelve months and brings a running game that barely any other back rower in Australia can match. Given the fact that Wallabies back row was outperformed in Brisbane, I think it is more balanced this weekend. The backline remains unchanged.

England coach Eddie Jones has made just two changes this week. Owen Farrell will start with the 12 jersey and Jack Nowell has replaced Marland Yarde on he left wing. I’m not surprised that there are no changes up front given how well the pack played last week. Farrell’s selection speaks for itself and Jack Nowell will want to make the most of his opportunity in Melbourne. Chris Robshaw will also play his 50th match for the visitors.

England secured their first ever win over Australia in Brisbane last weekend and they will be going for a rare series victory in Melbourne. A similar storyline played out during the 2013 British & Irish Lions series, where the visitors won the first Test in Brisbane before falling short in Melbourne. The pressure is on the Wallabies and they will need to dominate the breakdown and keep James Haskell and Maro Itoje out of the action as much as possible. Cheika has done his best to sure up the scrum and with Craig Joubert in charge, a referee that the Australians are used to, they should be closer to parity. Australia enjoys the underdog tag and although England will kick penalty after penalty, I expect them to outscore England again from a tries standpoint and level the series heading to Sydney.

Predicted result: Australia to win narrowly @ $1.80 – Luxbet

Best Bet 3: Australia to win (vs England) @ $1.80 – Luxbet

South Africa ($1.28) vs Ireland ($3.80)

Test match rugby returns to Ellis Park, the home of rugby in South Africa, where the Springboks are looking for redemption against the Irish on Saturday night. Ireland made history last weekend in Cape Town when they won their first Test match ever in South Africa 26-20, despite not being able to call upon a number of first choice starters and they also played 60 minutes of the match with 14 men.

South Africa: Tendai Mtwawira, Adriaan Strauss (captain), Frans Malherbe, Eben Etzebeth, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Francois Louw, Siya Kolisi, Duane Vermuelen, Faf de Klerk, Elton Jantjies, Lwazi Mvovo, Damien de Allende, Lionel Mapoe, JP Pietersen, Willie le Roux

Replacements: Bongi Mbonambi, Trevor Nyakane, Julian Redelinghuys, Franco Mostert, Warren Whitely, Rudy Paige, Morne Steyn, Ruan Combrinck

Ireland: Jack McGrath, Rory Best (captain), Mike Ross, Iain Henderson, Devin Toner, CJ Stander, Jordi Murphy, Jamie Heaslip, Connor Murray, Paddy Jackson, Keith Earls, Luke Marshall, Robbie Henshaw, Andrew Trimble, Jared Payne

Replacements: Sean Cronin, Finlay Bealham, Tadhg Furlong, Ultan Dillane, Rhys Ruddock, Kieran Marmion, Ian Madigan, Craig Gilroy

Prediction: 

Many are calling it one of the worst weekends in South African rugby history. England ‘A’, better known as the Saxons beat South Africa ‘A’, Argentina under 20 beat the Baby Boks for the first time ever and Ireland obviously won their first match on South African soil.
Like the other southern hemisphere nations (New Zealand and Australia), South Africa dominated the attacking statistics. They controlled possession (56%:44%), had more carries (131:93), more metres made (585:280), beat more defenders (19:9), made more passes (204:117), more offloads (10:7), but were undone having conceded a massive 22 turnovers to six. Interestingly, Ireland also had more clean line breaks, despite being down to 13 men at one stage. Defensively, Ireland had to make 57 more tackles and missed more (7:19), but they won nine turnovers to one disrupting the Springboks momentum far too regularly. To make things worse for the home team, the also dominated the lineouts and at scrum time (in terms of stats), so to go down to the visitors was simply unacceptable.
Springbok coach Alastair Coetzee has made five injury-enforced changes to the match day squad. Pieter-Steph du Toit replaces Lood de Jager at lock and Elton Jantjies comes in for the injured Pat Lambie at flyhalf. On the bench, Lions lock Franco Mostert is in line for his first Test match, as is Lions back Ruan Combrinck. Morne Steyn has also been recalled as cover for Elton Jantjies on the bench. Ireland coach Joe Schmidt has made five changes to his team, naming three uncapped players in the squad. Tadhg Furlong starts his first Test match at tighthead prop, with the South African-born Quinn Roux coming in to partner Devin Toner in the second row. Iain Henderson has been shifted to blindside flanker after CJ Stander was unfairly suspended for one match, with Rhys Ruddock selected in the number seven jersey. Ulster’s Stuart Olding comes in at inside centre with Craig Gilroy selected on the left wing. The other two uncapped players in the squad are the New Zealand-born flanker Sean Reidy and Connacht’s Tiernan O’Halloran.
The Springboks have never lost a series to Ireland and they have never lost a home series to Ireland, England, Scotland or Wales. With that being said, over the past two years, the Springboks have lost matches they were expected to win against Wales, Argentina (away and first time), Japan (RWC 2015) and of course Ireland. The Springboks have been guilty of complacency, a lack or precision and what is most disappointing, pure heart. Take nothing away from Ireland, they were exceptional in Cape Town, but I really can’t see them winning that match more than 10% of the time, especially in those circumstances. The hosts are guilty of dropping further down the world rankings this weekend, but they are a dangerous side when their backs are against the wall. Ireland will be doing everything they can to win this Test match, so I expect them to take all of their chances of kicking at goal and they will again look for drop goals. I’m not going to bet against the Springboks, but I am still going to stay away from a handicap bet as I don’t have a lot of faith with their selections and after how they played last week.

Predicted result: South Africa to win ugly @ $1.28 – Luxbet

Best Bet 4: South Africa vs Ireland – Bet to be posted on Twitter when all markets are released