Test match rugby returns to the southern hemisphere for the first time in 2016 when three key matches take place this weekend. The first match in a three-match Test series kicks off when New Zealand takes on Wales at Eden Park, the Wallabies host England at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane and South Africa welcome Ireland to Cape Town. This Test match window signifies the end of the European season and the beginning of the Test match season in the southern hemisphere. Being a post-Rugby World Cup year, there are a number of fresh faces in all of the squads and it will be interesting to see if there are any major strategy changes, namely the Springboks. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.

Best Bet 1: New Zealand Total team points O33.5 @ $1.89 – Bet365
Best Bet 2: Total successful drop goals – Over 0.5 (Australia vs England) @ $5.50 – Bet265
Best Bet 3: Total Penalties scored O4.5 (South Africa vs Ireland) @ $2.25 – Bet365

New Zealand ($1.06) vs Wales ($8.10)

The world Champions start their four-year campaign at the spiritual home of rugby, Eden Park, where they face Six Nations runners-up, Wales. New Zealand head into this match riding an eight match win-streak, which saw them claim the William Webb Ellis trophy last October. A full-strength Welsh outfit lost to England two weekends ago at Twickenham with their 2016 record standing at three wins (Italy, France, Scotland), two losses (England x2) and a draw (Ireland). The All Blacks have beaten Wales 26 times in a row and have never lost to them in New Zealand.

New Zealand: Joe Moody, Dane Coles, Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Jerome Kaino, Sam Cane, Kieran Read, Aaron Smith, Aaron Cruden, Julian Savea, Ryan Crotty, Malakai Fekitoa, Waisake Naholo, Ben Smith

Replacements: Nathan Harris, Wyatt Crockett, Charlie Faumauina, Patrick Tuipulotu, Ardie Savea, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Seta Tamanivalu

Wales: Gethin Jenkins, Ken Owens, Samson, Bradley Davies, Alun Wyn Jones, Ross Moriarty, Sam Warburton, Toby Faletau, Rhys Webb, Dan Biggar, Hallam Amos, Jamie Roberts, Jonathan Davies, George North, Liam Williams

Replacements: Scott Baldwin, Rob Evans, Tomas Francis, Jake Ball, Ellis Jenkins, Gareth Davies, Gareth Anscombe, Scott Williams

Prediction: 

The All Blacks head into this match having only lost two matches (Australia 2015/South Africa 2014) and drawn one since 2012. Whoever said that the All Blacks would be far weaker this year after the RWC exodus, probably disagrees now. The pack remains strong, with an equal balance between pace, power and skill. Aaron Cruden has been preferred to Beauden Barrett and Lima Sopoaga in the ten jersey, to partner the world’s best halfback in Aaron Smith. Ryan Crotty and Malakai Fekitoa will look to begin a centre combination that has big shoes to fill, but they have enough firepower out wide in Julian Savea, Waisake Naholo and Ben Smith. The latter is a player who continues to amaze viewers with his high-level of involvements, deft touches and sound positional play. Coach Steve Hanson has named a strong bench with debuts awaiting Hurricanes back rower Ardie Savea and Chiefs centre Seta Tamanivalu.

Looking at recent form, the Welsh were demolished by England and that match saw them miss 21 tackles, concede 20 turnovers and lost three lineouts on their own throw. Conceding that amount of errors against the All Blacks would be catastrophic, so coach Warren Gatland will have to have his troops performing at a higher level in Auckland. Wales have had a settled squad for a number of years, despite not achieving huge amounts of success. As a result, Wales have become predictable and away from home especially, other nations know how to pick them apart. They are very direct with their ball-runners, but the lack of creativity that this week’s opponents have in abundance will hurt them. It is a squad that is reaching peak age, but they need to start delivering results for themselves and for their coach, who has been at the helm of Welsh rugby for far too long in my opinion.

The strength of the All Blacks is their adaptability. They can play the confrontational one-off runner game, but rather they choose to play a more complex game, focusing on having multiple options and feasting on turnover ball, with the end result is often a lot prettier to watch. The All Blacks have not lost at Eden Park since 1994, a streak of 35 undefeated matches and they haven’t lost at home for 38 straight games. Will that change this weekend? Not likely. The Welsh might be competitive off Dan Biggar’s boot in the opening stanza, but the ruthlessness and the home team will see them cruise home.

Predicted result: New Zealand to win by 20 @ $1.06 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 1: New Zealand Total team points O33.5 @ $1.89 – Bet365

Australia ($1.65) vs England ($2.24)

Rugby World Cup runners-up Australia face their old foe in England and the current Six Nations Champions at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane on Saturday night. The Wallabies will still be stinging having lost the Rugby World Cup Final to the All Blacks last October, which halted a seven-match winning streak. England also arrive in Australia in good-form having won seven matches in a row. The most recent match between these two saw Australia outclass England 33 – 12 at the Rugby World Cup, but England have won four of the last seven matches dating back to 2010.

Australia: Scott Sio, Stephen Moore (captain), Greg Holmes, Rory Arnold, Rob Simmons, Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper, David Pocock, Nick Phipps, Bernard Foley, Rob Horne, Samu Kerevi, Tevita Kuridrani, Dane Haylett-Petty, Israel Folau

Replacements: Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Slipper, Sekope Kepu, James Horwill, Dean Mumm, Sean McMahon, Nick Frisby, Christian Leali’ifano

England: Mako Vunipola, Dylan Hartley, Dan Cole, Maro Itoje, George Kruis, Chris Robshaw, James Haskell, Billy Vunipola, Ben Youngs, Owen Farrell, Marland Yarde, Luther Burrell, Jonathan Joseph, Anthony Watson, Mike Brown

Replacements: Luke Cowan-Dickie, Matt Mullan, Paul Hill, Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes, Danny Care, George Ford, Jack Nowell

Prediction: 

This is definitely the most exciting match of the three ‘main’ fixtures this weekend and one that I will be at. There are so many sub-plots, whether it be around Eddie Jones vs Michael Cheika or England exacting revenge on the Wallabies for dumping them out of the Rugby World Cup in their own back yard. Michael Cheika has named a strong squad. It is clear that he has gone for size in some positions with Rory Arnold due to make his debut at lock (2.08m) and Reds prodigy Samu Kerevi selected for his first match at inside centre, paired with Tevita Kuridrani in a bash-brothers combination. The spine of the team remains unchanged and Cheika is persisting with the back row of Fardy, Hooper and Pocock that performed so admirably in the RWC. The bench has a mix of youth and experience with strong front row replacements, although I would’ve opted for someone other than James Horwill and Dean Mumm on the bench. Sean McMahon can play any of the back row positions so his introduction will be eye-catching in the second half, as will debutant Nick Frisby, but I don’t expect that he would get much game time in Brisbane.
Eddie Jones was appointed as head coach of England after the Wallabies dumped England out of last year’s Rugby World Cup in the group stages.
Since his inception into the prestigious coaching role, the Poms are yet to lose under his guidance and also claimed their first 6 Nations Grand Slam for 13 years in March of this year. By all accounts, he puts together some of the most challenging training sessions of them all, but his ability to control the media and direct all of their attention towards him in the lead up to this Test match has been a masterstroke. The visitors will have a strong set piece, whether it be in the scrums or at lineout time – it is something they pride themselves on. My concern for them is the balance of their back row. They don’t have a specialist flanker, who will play on the ball which creates openings for the likes of David Pocock, Michael Hooper and even Samu Kerevi in the centre channel. Billy Vunipola will have to shoulder a lot of the ball carrying load and Chris Robshaw needs a big game, a player I just don’t think cuts the mustard at this level. Heineken Cup and Aviva Premiership-winning flyhalf Owen Farrell has been preferred to George Ford after the latter had an off day against Wales with the boot. There is a lot of X-factor and pace outside of him, but whether or not the ball gets to them remains to be seen.
The 2010 two-match series in Australia saw delivered a drawn result and I wouldn’t be surprised if this series goes to a decider in Sydney in two weeks time. The Wallabies often play some of their best rugby at Suncorp Stadium and with a vocal crowd behind them, I think they will just edge it.

Predicted result: Australia to win @ $1.65 – Luxbet

Best Bet 2: Total successful drop goals – Over 0.5 (Australia vs England) @ $5.50 – Bet265

South Africa ($1.13) vs Ireland ($6.05)

South Africa play their first match under new coach Alastair Coetzee on Saturday night when they welcome Ireland to Newlands Stadium in Cape Town. The Springboks were beaten semi-finalists at last year’s Rugby World Cup and with new transformation targets to adhere to, it will be interesting to see if they perform up to the same high standard that they have since re-admission in 1992. Ireland made the quarter-finals in England before falling short to a high-tempo Argentinian side, but they won’t be impressed with their 2016 campaign thus far having only one two matches, with losses to England and France and one draw with Wales. Looking at the history between these two, it has been a mixed bag of late with Ireland winning the last clash in 2014, 29 -15. I must point out though that Ireland has never beaten South African in South Africa from seven attempts.

South Africa: Tendai Mtwawira, Adriaan Strauss (captain), Frans Malherbe, Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager, Francois Louw, Siya Kolisi, Duane Vermuelen, Faf de Klerk, Pat Lambie, Lwazi Mvovo, Damien de Allende, Lionel Mapoe, JP Pietersen, Willie le Roux

Replacements: Bongi Mbonambi, Trevor Nyakane, Julian Redelinghuys, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Warren Whitely, Rudy Paige, Elton Jantjies, Jesse Kriel

Ireland: Jack McGrath, Rory Best (captain), Mike Ross, Iain Henderson, Devin Toner, CJ Stander, Jordi Murphy, Jamie Heaslip, Connor Murray, Paddy Jackson, Keith Earls, Luke Marshall, Robbie Henshaw, Andrew Trimble, Jared Payne

Replacements: Sean Cronin, Finlay Bealham, Tadhg Furlong, Ultan Dillane, Rhys Ruddock, Kieran Marmion, Ian Madigan, Craig Gilroy

Prediction: 

New Springbok coach Alastair Coetzee has opted for a local squad as he has only selected two overseas-based players in his squad in ex-Stormers prop Steven Kitshoff (not in the team this weekend) and rampaging number eight Duane Vermuelen. There are also a number of players who have been selected that I believe have been quota-driven. The pack is big and will be physically imposing and I am excited to see what Siya Kolisi can do to give the back row some more balance and as another threat at ruck time. Halfback Faf de Klerk will bring energy and speed to the South African setup and Lionel Mapoe gets a chance at outside centre after a couple of strong seasons. There is a lot of versatility and depth on the bench, but I have to argue against the selection of Bongi Mbonambi as reserve hooker. Malcom Marx of the Lions should be there, but will more than likely be another player driven away from South Africa.
Ireland have been rocked by injuries ahead of this tour to South Africa, their first since 2004. The injury list currently includes Jonny Sexton, Luke Fitzgerald, Dave Kearney, Rob Kearney, Peter O’Mahony, Tommy Bowe and Simon Zebo, all of which would more than likely be first-choice starters. The end of season fatigue could be something that weighs them down even more this weekend. Joe Schmidt will rely heavily on a tight scrum and the 2.10 metre lock, Devin Toner in the lineouts. Not having Jonny Sexton is a big blow in the playmaker role, but Paddy Jackson has had success against the Springboks before. Robbie Henshaw is a good young prospect and New Zealand-born Jarred Payne is a versatile player at fullback.
There will certainly be a degree of ring rust from both squads at Newlands on Saturday. There are a number of new combinations and potentially a more open style of play from the Springboks, so it should make for entertaining viewing. However, the Springboks won’t take any prisoners this weekend, especially in their own back yard and should win this comfortably by double digits in a high-scoring match.

Predicted result: South Africa to win @ $1.13 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 3: South Africa vs Ireland – Total Penalties scored O4.5 x @ $2.25 – Bet365