A week before the Autumn International Test series begin, rugby fans will be treated to a plethora of finals across New Zealand, Australia and South Africa. Provincial rugby in these parts of the world is the soul of Southern Hemisphere rugby and teams play some of the best attacking rugby on the planet. Last weekend in Brisbane, the All Blacks snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in front of a pretty ordinary Suncorp Stadium crowd. Despite not playing their best rugby in recent weeks, the All Blacks extended their lead in the IRB world rankings, but one must commend Australia’s performance after the tumultuous week they had leading into the Test Match. Hurricane Beale swept through the squad and as a result, Ewen McKenzie resigned and Waratahs Super Rugby and Heineken Cup winning coach Michael Cheika was appointed as head coach – time will only tell how the Wallabies will fare under his guidance.

Last weeks best bets went two for three, which turned over a profit and after this weekend, I will be returning to cover the Autumn International Test Match Series which sees the world’s best teams face off against each other in Europe. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat. Fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of provincial rugby, before the best of the southern hemisphere face off against their foes from the north next weekend.

Best Bet 1: Brisbane City -5.5 (vs NSW Eagles) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 2: Perth Spirit +19.5 (vs Melbourne Rising) @ $1.91 – Bet365
Best Bet 3: Tasman -1.0 (vs Taranaki) @ $1.90 – Bet365
Best Bet 4: Stormers -2.5 (vs Lions) @ $1.86 – Sportingbet

NRC Semi Final 1 – NSW Country ($2.60) vs Brisbane City ($1.50)

The first ever NRC semi-final will take place on the Central Coast in Gosford this weekend when New South Wales Country face off against Brisbane City. Very few would’ve predicted NSW Country to make it this far, however, they have surprised many and do the basics very well. Their opposition this week, Brisbane City are littered with International and Super Rugby players. Both teams battled it out in Lismore in round four with Brisbane City prevailing 34 – 26 on the back of a hat trick from Reds number eight Jake Schatz. Jake Schatz will once again feature this weekend alongside Queensland Reds teammates Dave McDuling (Captain), Curtis Browning, Liam Gill, Nick Frisby, Samo Kerevi and Chris Kuridrani. It is a highly skilful and industrious back row that will take a lot of stopping and flyhalf Jake McIntyre has organised his troops well out wide. I truly believe Nick Frisby is a superstar at this level and watch the slender half back create opportunities and dominate with his tactical kicking. Although the New South Wales Country team will be propped up by their home crowd, I can’t see them outplaying a Brisbane City team that will want to avenge their loss to the Rising, most likely in next weekend’s final.

Predicted result:  Brisbane City to win @ $1.50 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 1: Brisbane City -5.5 (vs NSW Eagles) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet

NRC Semi Final Two – Melbourne Rising ($1.14) vs Perth Spirit ($5.71)

AAMI Park in Melbourne will welcome their local stars, Melbourne Rising when they clash with the Perth Spirit on Saturday evening. The Rising have been the form team of the competition winning all of their eight matches and collecting bonus points in each, which makes them such an imposing team to play against. With the bulk of their squad recognised Super Rugby players, their results don’t come as much of a surprise, but their attacking style of play and sheer size advantage have been the hallmarks of their game. The Spring tour Wallaby call ups for flanker Sean McMahon and winger Tom English has certainly weakened the Melbourne-based squad, but the upside is that it is evident that there is a place for the NRC and the ability to further develop players to compete at the next level. The Perth Spirit will be represented by 11 Western Force players including the likes of Pek Cowan and Captain Sam Wykes in the forwards and Ian Prior, Zach Holmes, Junior Rasolea and Luke Morahan in the backs. It may not look like a complete team, especially in comparison to the high-flying Rising team, however, the camaraderie in the west is matched by very few given their isolation and the fact that they aren’t often disrupted by national call-ups.

As was the case with the first semi-final, both teams locked horns in Melbourne in Round four, a game in which the Rising really announced themselves with a strong seven tries to three (44 – 24) victory. Although I am confident that the Melbourne Rising will win this match, I do believe that Perth has enough class and X-Factor to not let the lead blow out past 19 points.

Predicted result:  Melbourne Rising to win @ $1.14 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 2: Perth Spirit +19.5 (vs Melbourne Rising) @ $1.91 – Bet365

ITM Cup – Taranaki ($2.04) vs Tasman ($1.78)

Yarrow Stadium in New Plymouth will host it’s first ever ITM Cup final when they take on the Tasman Makos in what promises to be an exciting encounter to finish off the season. At the start of the season, it would’ve been seen as a miracle for both of these teams to make the finals, but such is rugby and the depth of New Zealand to be able to field two teams in the finals that aren’t from the more recognised cities in Aotearoa. Taranaki escaped with an extra-time win last weekend against Auckland in what was a fascinating contest, but Auckland may have taken some of the sting out of from the New Plymouth based franchise. In the other semi-final, Tasman cruised to a remarkable 26 – 6 victory over the reigning six time champions, the Crusaders. That just puts into perspective how well Tasman have been playing and given that both of those teams form the Crusaders, Canterbury rugby looks to be in a good place.

Looking at the teams, Taranaki has an experienced forward pack that gets the job more often than not. Blade Thompson at number eight has been one of the standout performers in this year’s competition and I expect to see more of him at Super Rugby level over the next few years. In the backs, Marty McKenzie more often than not finds a way to unleash the beasts like Waisake Naholo and outside centre Seta Taminavalu, but my focus will be on the incumbent New Zealand Maori Captain Charlie Ngatai. He is a very astute player, however, injuries have often derailed his progress, so here’s hoping that he lasts the full 80 minutes. Looking at Tasman, former Lions prop Ross Geldenhuys has anchored the scrum well this year and Alex Ainsley and Joe Wheeler have grafted well in the second row. Marty Banks has been a prolific points scorer at flyhalf and Tasman possess an extremely dangerous back line with the likes of Lowe (Chiefs), Marshall (Chiefs), Fonotia (Crusaders), Heem (Sevens) and Robbie Malneek at fullback.

For me, Tasman look to have the best team on paper and I expect them to get ahead early and nullify the home crowd and end up bringing the ITM Cup back home to Nelson.

Predicted result:  Tasman to win @ $1.78 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 3: Tasman -1.0 (vs Taranaki) @ $1.90 – Bet365

Currie Cup Final – Western Province ($1.61) vs Golden Lions ($2.30)

Newlands Stadium in Cape Town will play host to it’s second successive Currie Cup final on Saturday night when the rampant Golden Lions come to town for the first final between these two provinces since 1986. It will be Western Province’s third finals appearance in the past three seasons, which is a great accolade, however, last year they were defeated by the underdogs, the Sharks 33 – 19. Western Province has a proud history of winning 32 Currie Cups, which is nine more than their nearest rival, the Blue Bulls, but they won’t have it all their own way this weekend with the Lions playing some of the best rugby in their provincial history.

The strength of the Lions is without doubt their scrum and their back row. The Lions buckled the Sharks last week up front and Warren Whitely, Derrick Minnie and Jaco Kriel, the tournament’s leading try-scorer with nine, caused the Sharks all sorts of problems. In saying that, Western Province’s pack won’t be pushed back easily and in my opinion, number eight Nizaam Carr has been the blue and white’s best player this season in both the Currie Cup and at Super Rugby level. The men from the cape have a more slick and enterprising looking backline, so if their forwards do get some parity up front, I can see the likes of Juan de Jong, Seabelo Senatla and Cheslin Kolbe causing the Lions some real headaches out wide.

Craig Joubert is a great referee and he likes the game to flow, as was the case in his most recent appointment between the Wallabies and the All Blacks in Brisbane. The Lions stand between Western Province and their first Currie Cup finals victory at home since 2001. Province has only gone onto win one title since then and with their Super Rugby franchise usually promising, but failing to deliver, a victory might just be what the doctor ordered for Cape Town – I expect them to win this by a try.

Predicted result:  Stormers to win @ $1.61 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 4: Stormers -2.5 (vs Lions) @ $1.86 – Sportingbet

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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