After a late try derailed yesterday’s best bets, today is the main event for both New Zealand and South African provincial rugby. The inform Wellington Lions welcome reigning champions Canterbury to Westpac Stadium this afternoon (17:30 AEDT) and Western Province clash with the Sharks at Newlands Stadium in Cape Town (01:30 AEDT). Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat. Good luck!

ITM Cup Final – Wellington vs. Canterbury 

Best Bet 1: Tri Bet – Either Team under 7.5 @ $1.81 – Betfair
Best Bet 2: Team B (Canterbury) Points First Half OVER 10.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet

Currie Cup Final – Western Province vs. Sharks

Best Bet 3: Team B (Sharks) First half – OVER 9.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4:  Will there be a drop goal – YES @ $2.24 – Sportsbet

Wellington (1.75) vs. Canterbury ($2.44) – Premiership Final 

Windy Wellington will host the Premiership final between two powerhouses of New Zealand provincial rugby, the Lions and Canterbury. Both teams are littered with experience, X-factor and international class, so it is only fitting that the minor premiers (Wellington) are playing the runners up (Canterbury) after an enthralling, but arduous season. Last weekend, Wellington easily accounted for newcomers Counties Manukau, holding them scoreless in the first half and ran in six tries in a dominant display. Similarly, Canterbury ran in seven tries of their own against a strong Auckland line up. It was a high-scoring matchup that entertained a healthy crowd in Christchurch, however, Wellington will be quietly confident having to come up against a defence that leaked a few points last week.

Wellington: 

Wellington has always been seen as one of the heavyweights in New Zealand rugby, however, it has been thirteen long years since they last raised the trophy (NPC). That’s not to say they haven’t had their chances as in the last seven years, they have been losing finalists on four occasions and losing semi-finalists on two others. Put simply, their finals record has been shocking, but you get the feeling that this squad has as good a chance as any to bring the title back to a rugby-mad Wellington. Their league-leading season includes important victories over Canterbury, Waikato and Auckland, but a loss this weekend will undo all of their hard work to date.

Coach Chris Boyd has announced a strong team for Saturday’s final including one of the best back rows in the business in Brad Shields, Ardie Savea and Victor Vito. Ardie, younger brother of All Blacks winger Julian, is sure to play many games for his country over the next few years and his excellent ITM Cup form has seen him rewarded by being chosen to travel with the AB’s on their end of season tour (not officially part of the squad). The Lions backline boasts some seasoned veterans in Shaun Treeby and Tim Bateman with rising stars such as Proctor and Super 15 winner Charlie Ngatai always a threat from the back. Samoan International and Wellington winger Alapati Leiua boldly stated after scoring two tries in last week’s victory, “I’m telling you, we’ll win next week. We’ll win the game”. Confidence is obviously high in the Wellington camp and despite being one of the best wingers in New Zealand rugby, he should know that a win against Canterbury is never guaranteed.

Canterbury: 

Having won the ITM Cup for the last five years in succession, it is no surprise to see Canterbury make the final yet again. Their systems and structures are conducive to developing world-class players and their successful brand inspires existing players to reach new heights whilst nurturing the young talent coming through. Having started the season with a healthy five-match streak, Wellington derailed their campaign somewhat with a gutsy victory at Westpac Stadium. Canterbury went on to win three of their last four matches including a 72-7 thrashing of Manawatu in Christchurch – the highest total score by any team in this year’s competition.

Coach Scott Robertson has made three changes to his team for the final thanks largely to the All Black’s management releasing the towering lock Dominic Bird and recent All Black debutant and utility back Tom Taylor. The forward pack has a solid mix of youth and experience and Andy Ellis and Tyler Bleyendaal remain a classy halves combination. Ryan Crotty has been an unsung hero for Canterbury rugby for many a year and wingers Jonny McNicholl and Patrick Osborne have the ability to score some sensational tries. All in all and as you would expect, Canterbury are a well balanced side that can adapt to any situation put in front of them and for that reason they are a very hard team to crack.

Prediction: 

A little over a month ago, both teams clashed at this weekend’s venue and it was the home side that got up in a fiery encounter. After absorbing an intense amount of pressure for nearly ten minutes and holding up Canterbury on two occasions, the Lions eventually clung on for a brave 25 – 19 victory. Without a doubt, Wellington have been the form team of the competition, however, history suggests that Canterbury are in the driver’s seat. Can Wellington end Canterbury’s stranglehold on the ITM Cup or will the visitors prove why they are the most successful franchise in New Zealand rugby. For me, they are very hard to split and for that reason, the Tri-Bet on Betfair looks a good chance.

Best Bet 1: Tri Bet – Either Team under 7.5 @ $1.81 – Betfair

Best Bet 2: Team B (Canterbury) Points First Half OVER 10.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet

Western Province (1.62) vs. Sharks ($2.78) – Currie Cup Final 

Newlands Stadium in Cape Town plays host to a mouth-watering clash between last year’s finalists, Western Province and the Sharks. It will be the Sharks fourth consecutive final, so it is safe to say that they have been the strongest provincial side in South Africa over the past few years, but Western Province has won 32 Currie Cups, which is nine more than their nearest rival (Bulls). The match day squads have an abundance of Springboks and rising stars of South African rugby so this physical encounter is one not to be missed.

Western Province: 

As minor premiers, Western Province have ‘coasted’ through the season to be undefeated, however, their mettle was tested on two occasions when all they could manage was a draw against a fast-finishing Bulls outfit and a hungry Lions squad. Last year, Western Province broke an eleven year drought when they defeated the Sharks in the grand final and another win on Saturday could potentially be the second instalment of a dynasty with a relatively young squad set to play on collectively for many years to come. In recent years, defence has been the hallmark of the Western Province game plan, however, this year the home side’s attacking efficiency has improved and they have scored a number of scintillating tries. Given the quality of their opposition this week, the team that defends most astutely will go a long way to determining the Currie Cup champions of 2013.

Western Province coach Allister Coetzee has named an unchanged line-up for the Currie Cup final this weekend with the versatile Deon Fourie recovering from a neck injury to captain the side in the number six jersey. The forward pack features four Springboks in Pat Cilliers, Eben Etzebeth, Siya Kolisi and Duane Vermuelen, with fellow Springbok Schalk Burger warming the bench. Demetri Catrakilis, probably one of South Africa’s best tactical fly halves will run the show from fly half, with the excitement machines of Cheslin Kolbe and Gio Aplon likely to cause havoc for the Sharks defence. Damien de Allende is a player of the future, but he will be tested by the ex-golden boy of South African rugby, Francois Steyn. On Saturday night, Springbok captain Jean de Villiers will earn his 50th cap for his province at Currie Cup level, and given that both he and the rejuvenated Schalk Burger haven’t won the title before, their teammates will no doubt dig extra deep to recreate the emotional ecstasy of last year’s successful campaign.

Sharks: 

The Durban-based unit has had a strong Currie Cup campaign after a sub-standard Super Rugby season. Very rarely do the Sharks put out a weak side and their fans have every reason to be confident of securing only their sixth title in the 121st year of the competition. The Sharks have been the strongest team in this year’s title race in terms of points differential, but they have been on the wrong side of the scoreboard on three occasions, two of which were against Western Province. Having been without a number of Springboks for a large part of the season, the Sharks welcomed back a number of their stalwarts last week and Patrick ‘roast’ Lambie composed himself brilliantly to earn himself the man-of-the-match award.

Sharks coach and ex-player Brad Macleod-Henderson has named an experienced squad for Saturday’s encounter, with a massive forward pack sure to be the decisive factor if they are to be victorious. Macleod-Henderson has selected eleven past and present Springboks including, the whole front row, the entire back row and the Charl Mcleod and Patrick Lambie forming the halves combination. Discipline is going to be key this week and it must be said that Bismarck du Plessis should be counting his lucky stars after escaping from the judicial enquiry unscathed after deliberately stomping on Free State Cheetahs flanker Lappies Labuschagne. His partnership with his brother Dr. Jannie du Plessis and the Beast, Tendai Mtawarira form an ominous front row and could be too much for the Western Province front three to handle. Accurate goal kickers are essential in finals football and similarly to New Zealand’s blockbuster in Wellington, an off game with the boot could easily cost either team.

Prediction: 

A home final comes with expectations and extra pressure, but also the vocal support from a sold out Newlands can often spur their team to go the extra mile. I have no doubt that it will be a tightly contested affair, reminiscent of ‘trench warfare’ with bone-crunching hits and skillsets of the highest calibre on display. Both provinces are extremely passionate and are littered with Springboks (19 to be exact) and with the Springboks end-of-year tour due to be named shortly after the final whistle blows, there will extra incentive for some of the fringe players. Although recent Currie Cup finals have managed to produce rather high-scoring affairs, with what is at stake, I can’t see either team pulling away by too many. In this year’s Super Rugby season, the ledger was squared at one a piece, however, the Stormers did manage to win their home fixture 22 – 15. Additionally, only one try was scored in 160 minutes of rugby signifying the defensive strengths of each team. In this year’s Currie Cup, Western Province won both matches, albeit my small margins of six and four respectively. On paper, it is hard to split the finalists so one would expect the end score to be close, but Western Province clearly have the better bench and this could well turn things in their favour later in the match.

Best Bet 3: Team B (Sharks) First half – OVER 9.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 4: Will there be a drop goal – YES @ $2.24 – Sportsbet