The Rugby Championship heads into round two this weekend after kicking off with matches between the All Blacks and the Pumas in Christchurch and the Wallabies faced the Springboks in Brisbane last weekend. As expected, the All Blacks had too much class across the pitch and cantered away to a 21-point victory, in a match that will be remembered in Christchurch as Richie McCaw and Dan Carter’s farewell. At Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, the Springboks physicality in defense and attacking efficiency propelled them to a 20 – 7 lead, however, a number of injuries to key personnel and a lack of experience on the bench let a rare Brisbane win escape their grasp. The Wallabies showed a lot of fight and the win will do them a world of good and in turn, has kept their Rugby Championship campaign alive. There were a number of injuries across both games that would’ve created some concern for fans, most notably with Super Rugby’s leading try-scorer Waisake Naholo breaking his leg on debut for the All Blacks. However, injuries to Rob Horne, Will Genia, Marcell Coetzee, Victor Matfield and Jannie du Plessis have been reported to be short term.
Looking ahead to this week, Johannesburg will be buzzing with a 1995 Rugby World Cup Rematch set for Saturday evening and Australia will find themselves at the scene of the crime that saw them lose to Argentina last year in Mendoza. Both best bets last week failed to cash, however, with both of them missing by only 2 points, I am still confident in my processes. As always it was a pleasure catching up with a few of you on Twitter, but for the newcomers, don’t forget to follow me (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of International rugby.
Best Bet 1: New Zealand -1.5 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 2: Australia -4.5 @ $1.82 – Tab.co.nz (early twitter play)
South Africa ($2.22) vs New Zealand ($1.67)
The world famous Ellis Park in Johannesburg will play host to a mouth-watering clash between the reigning Rugby World Cup and Rugby Championship champions, the All Blacks and the Springboks on Saturday night. New Zealand got their campaign off to the best possible start last Friday in Christchurch with a four-try bonus point win over a weakened Argentinian outfit, whereas the Springboks let a 13-point lead slip to be denied victory by the Wallabies in the 82nd minute of the match. Given that The Rugby Championship is shortened this year and the emphasis that is placed on the Rugby World Cup, South Africa are all but out of the running, but against their biggest rivals, a victory would hold them in good stead with the showpiece less than two months away. Looking at the history between these proud rugby nations, New Zealand have won ten of the last 12, which is an astounding statistic, however, South Africa did manage to secure a victory last year at Ellis Park over the All Blacks, courtesy of a monstrous last gasp Pat Lambie penalty goal (27 – 25).
South Africa team:
Tendai Mtawarira, Bismarck du Plessis, Jannie du Plessis, Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager, Heinrich Brussow, Francois Louw, Schalk Burger, Ruan Pienaar, Handre Pollard, Bryan Habana, Damien de Allende, Jesse Kriel, Cornal Hendricks, Willie le Roux
Reserves: Adriaan Strauss, Trevor Nyakane, Vincent Koch, Warren Whiteley, Cobus Reinach, Pat Lambie, Lionel Mapoe
South African coach Heyneke Meyer has made eight changes to the team that went to battle against the Wallabies last weekend. The front row of Mtawarira and the two du Plessis brothers remains unchanged, however, the injury to Victor Matfield has given youngster, Lood de Jager an opportunity in the number five jersey. Heinrich Brussow, a player of immense talent, has been selected in the back row for his first Test start since 2011. One would feel that his combination with Francois Louw and Schalk Burger will be highly important if the Springboks are to win this match. Additionally, Brussow has a perfect record against the All Blacks having played four matches for four wins. As a result of Victor Matfield’s hamstring strain, Schalk Burger has also been entrusted with the Springboks interim captaincy armband, something he will no doubt cherish and grow from. The backline initially remained unchanged, however, JP Pietersen has been replaced by Cornal Hendricks due to a hamstring strain suffered at training. Once again this week, the spotlight will be on Handre Pollard, a player who really rose to prominence on the international stage against the All Blacks last year. The bench is where the majority of the changes have taken place, with Trevor Nyakane and Vincent Koch supporting Adriaan Strauss as front row replacements, Flip van der Merwe returns to the fray and Warren Whiteley will also get some time off the pine. Cobus Reinach and Pat Lambie continue as the understudies to Ruan Pienaar’s and Handre Pollard and Lionel Mapoe comes onto to bench, replacing Cornal Hendricks as an outside back substitute.
New Zealand Team:
Tony Woodcock, Dane Coles, Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick, James Broadhurst, Liam Messam, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Aaron Smith, Lima Sopoaga, Charles Piutau, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Ben Smith, Israel Dagg
Reserves: Codie Taylor, Wyatt Crockett, Ben Franks, Sam Whitelock, Victor Vito, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Malakai Fekitoa
Looking at the team named by Coach Steve Hansen, the All Blacks are in a good spot to wrap up The Rugby Championship for the fourth year in a row. In total there are three changes in the pack, with hooker Dane Coles getting his first start of the International season alongside Tony Woodcock and Owen Franks. James Broadhurst is on debut in the second row alongside Brodie Retallick, with Liam Messam also back in the picture next to Richie McCaw and Kieran Read at number eight. Aaron Smith, the world’s best halfback, will partner Highlanders teammate and All Blacks debutant Lima Sopoaga in the halves, but he has a wonderful backline at his disposal with the record-setting Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith in the centres and Charles Piutau, Ben Smith and Israel Dagg at fullback. Codie Taylor gets another chance at hooker on the bench, as does Wyatt Crockett and Ben Franks. Sam Whitelock and Victor Vito round out the forwards replacements with TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett and Malakai Fekitoa probably the most dangerous 21, 22, and 23 in the world rugby.
Prediction:
Like many teams in world rugby, matches against the All Blacks are of the utmost importance to the Springboks and their passionate fans. The All Blacks success has come on the back of professionalism, class and balance and very few teams have managed to outsmart them for a long, long time. In fact, only England (2012) and South Africa (2014) have managed to beat the All Blacks since they won the Rugby World Cup in 2011 on home soil and an early loss in 2015 would certainly come as a surprise ahead of the grand daddy of them all in September.
In Brisbane, the Springboks defended solidly for the first 70 minutes of the match against the Wallabies, which was reiterated by the stats, with the top five tacklers of the rounds being Springboks: Burger (20), Louw (18), de Jager (18), de Allende (15), Etzebeth (15), Coetzee (15). Richie McCaw was the first of the non-South Africans with 13, followed closely by Michael Hooper with 12. However, what holds South Africa back on the field is their inability to read the game and adjust to different circumstances. They are a powerful and skilful unit that do so many things right, but once again they were outthought by the Wallabies in Brisbane. The Springboks peppered one of the games great fullbacks in Israel Folau with high balls all match and eventually it cost them. Folau ended up making more metres than any other player in round one (closely followed by Willie le Roux and Jesse Kriel). The fact that South Africa also continued to retain possession in their own 22 with the clock winding down was asking for trouble and when they were penalised for sealing off the ruck, it was de ja vu. The same thing happened in Bloemfontein in 2010, when Kurtley Beale broke their Highveld hoodoo with a long range penalty. Furthermore, the same thing happened in Perth last season when the Rob Horne scored in the last minute. Gifting the All Blacks this type of momentum is asking for trouble, so hopefully for the Springboks sake, they have learned their lesson.
This week marks the first time any team has held the number one ranking in world rugby for a total of ten years. Since the introduction of the rankings system, only South Africa has managed to join New Zealand and experience top spot, which they last held in 2009 and was also the beginning of the All Blacks current reign. In a fascinating stat, since the All Blacks took over the number one ranking in 2009, they have played 73 tests for 66 wins and two draws. Revisiting last week’s match in Christchurch, the All Blacks were solid however, they took their game to another level in the ten minutes either side of half time. This is a period of time where coaches insist that their players lift because it creates a lot of momentum for the back half of the match. The front row was superb against the Pumas, with Tony Woodcock, Kevin Mealamu and Owen Franks putting in arguably their best shifts of the season. The rest of the pack did their jobs well and it was great to see Kieran Read back near his best with a number of barnstorming runs and Richie McCaw was rewarded with a try in his Christchurch swansong. In the backs, TJ Perenara grabbed his opportunity at halfback and Dan Carter was solid in the jersey he held onto for so many years. It was also great to see the improvement in SBW’s game compared to the match in Apia and he formed a dangerous combination with Ma’a Nonu. Israel Dagg also showed touches of brilliance and based on his last two performances, another strong outing against the Springboks would see him on the plane to England.
It is one versus two at the ground that really cemented their rivalry. It is going to be physical, it is going to be fast and it is going to be a true gauge of where both teams are at in their Rugby World Cup 2015 preparations. Whoever can maintain composure, keep their discipline and execute in the big moments will come out on top in this match. It is important to note that Ellis Park isn’t a happy hunting ground for the All Blacks, as the Springboks have won 5 of the last 7 matches played. However, the All Blacks will be ready for the Springboks physical onslaught and once they get the hosts measure, the class of their backline should be too strong. The Springboks secured ten breakdown turnovers against the Wallabies and the visitors will be well aware of this, but I think the All Blacks will get their first win at Ellis Park since 2004, in a match that will have the rugby world talking about on Sunday.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win by less than ten points @ $1.67 – William Hill
Best Bet 1: New Zealand -1.5 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet (early twitter play)
Argentina ($2.70) vs Australia ($1.48)
A hostile environment at the Estadio Malvinas Argentinas in Mendoza will welcome a confident, but physically bruised Australian team on Sunday morning Australian time for a match against their faithful Argentinian Pumas. The Pumas are coming off a substandard performance against the All Blacks last weekend in Christchurch that saw the home team record their 37th home victory in succession, whereas the Wallabies fought hard to erase a 13-point deficit and beat the Springboks thanks to a last minute try to Tevita Kuridrani.
This is a big match for the Wallabies given that the corresponding fixture in Mendoza last year, saw the Pumas record their first Rugby Championship victory from 18 attempts (21 – 17) and in a World Cup year, the Wallabies won’t want to let this match slip.
Argentina Team:
Marcos Ayerza, Agustin Creevy, Ramiro Herrera, Manuel Carizza, Tomas Lavanini, Javier Ortega Desio, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, Facundo Isa, Martin Landajo, Nicolas Sanchez, Juan Imhoff, Juan Pablo Socino, Matias Moroni, Gonzalo Camacho, Santiago Cordero
Reserves: Santiago Iglesias Valdez, Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Matias Diaz, Matias Alemanno, Leonardo Senatore, Tomas Cubelli, Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias, Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
Australia Team:
James Slipper, Stephen Moore, Greg Holmes, Rob Simmons, Will Skelton, Scott Fardy, David Pocock, Ben McCalman, Nick Phipps, Bernard Foley, Joe Tomane, Matt Toomua, Tevita Kuridrani, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Israel Folau
Reserves: Tatafu Polota-Nau, Scott Sio, Sekope Kepu, Dean Mumm, Michael Hooper, Nic White, Quade Cooper, Kurtley Beale
Prediction:
Australian Coach Michael Cheika has rung the changes this week as he looks to rotate his squad and give each player enough game time to justify their Rugby World Cup selection. It comes as no surprise that Greg Holmes returns to the front row this weekend as the Wallabies will be looking to fight fire with fire at scrum time in Mendoza. The Queensland Reds tight five had an exceptional scrum in Super Rugby and that was evident when Holmes and Horwill joined Slipper and Simmons last week against the Springboks. Holmes will start his first test for the Wallabies since 2007 when he played Canada at that year’s showcase event. The only other two changes in the forwards see David Pocock replace Michael Hooper at openside flanker and Ben McCalman makes his first start of the Test season taking over from Scott Higginbotham. Hooper was exceptional against the Springboks and Pocock also made a big impression with his short time on the field and I expect both of them to play in tandem at some point in the match. In the backline, the Waratahs halves pairing of Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley has been reinstated and they will partner the Brumbies centre pairing of Matt Toomua and Tevita Kuridrani. Joe Tomane takes over from the injured Rob Horne on the left wing to complete the back three alongside Adam Ashley-Cooper and the bomb-diffusing expert, Israel Folau. Tatafu Polota Nau, Scott Sio and Sekope Kepu will come on in the match at some point from the bench, as will Dean Mumm, the aforementioned Michael Hooper, and the back reserves of Nic White, Quade Cooper and Kurtley Beale. Once again the Wallabies will field a useful bench that could easily break the game open in the last stanza.
Looking at the Pumas, other than their driving maul against the All Blacks, they didn’t look very threatening. Coach Daniel Hourcade has made seven changes to his squad to tackle the Wallabies in Mendoza, with the majority of those changes coming in the backline. The forward pack aimed up fairly well against a stronger, more elusive New Zealand eight, and they will be licking their lips coming up against a ‘weaker’ Wallabies unit, especially at scrum time. However, away from the lineouts and the scrums, the spotlight will be on fly half Nicolas Sanchez, who had a shocking match in Christchurch. As opposed to last week, he has been given a fairly inexperienced backline to work with, which the Wallabies will no doubt look to exploit, so it could be another long afternoon for the little general from Tucuman.
The Wallabies don’t need to be reminded about how they can ill-afford to take the Pumas lightly in Mendoza. The Wallabies raced out to an early lead against Argentina last year and they have a strong first half record against the home team. The Argentinian team features a lot of changes this week, with a number of new combinations and I feel this is going to hurt them. Daniel Hourcade is experimenting prior to the Rugby World Cup, however, with the reintroduction of certain players, the guidance of Michael Cheika, the Wallabies are starting to believe and as a result, they are beginning to play better rugby. If the Wallabies can keep on top of the referee and nullify the effect of the 40,000 strong crowd in the opening stanza, I can see them cantering away to a comfortable win in Mendoza, setting up a colossal battle with the All Blacks in two weeks.
Predicted result: Australia to win by double digits @ $1.48 – William Hill
Best Bet 2: Australia -4.5 @ $1.82 – Tab.co.nz (early twitter play)
