The Rugby Championship 2015 – Week 1 Preview

With the Super Rugby season done and dusted after culminating with a spectacular Final played out between the Hurricanes and the Highlanders in Wellington, rugby fanatics are in for a treat as we embark on the fourth edition of The Rugby Championship. Rugby purists believe that nothing compares to Test Match rugby and with the Rugby World Cup looming large in the distance, these Southern Hemisphere giants only have a few more opportunities to get their attacking and defensive systems in place to launch a global assault on world rugby in September. The Rugby Championship contains the three top rugby union teams in the world in the All Blacks, South Africa and Australia, with the Argentinians also providing tough opposition from time to time. Keep in mind though that the winner’s of the Tri-Nations/Rugby Championship have never gone onto becoming Rugby World Cup Champions in that calendar year.

Round one action kicks off this week in Christchurch with the All Blacks hosting the Pumas before we head to Brisbane where the Wallabies have been busy preparing for a physical encounter with the Springboks. As always it was a pleasure catching up with a few of you on Twitter, but for the newcomers, don’t forget to follow me (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of International rugby.

Best Bet 1: New Zealand -22.5 @ $1.82 – Tab.co.nz (early twitter play)
Best Bet 2: Australia vs South Africa – Total Points OVER 45.5 @ $1.91 – Bet365

*More plays will be released for Australia vs South Africa on twitter/website on Friday night once totals have been released

New Zealand ($1.04) vs Argentina ($13.00)

Test Match rugby returns to AMI Stadium in Christchurch on Friday afternoon when the reigning titleholders of the Rugby Championship, the New Zealand All Blacks host Argentina. The hosts International season kicked off last week with an arm-wrestle victory over Manu Samoa in Apia, but the All Blacks were certainly made to work for their victory in stifling conditions. On the other hand, Argentina has had a quiet lead-up to this campaign, but will be well aware of the challenge posed by New Zealand and will be looking to get their season off the best possible start ahead of the Rugby World Cup later on this year. From their 20 matches played, the All Blacks have never lost to the Pumas and last year’s matches saw the AB’s win by 19 points in New Plymouth, followed by a 21 point win and Rugby Championship-winning victory in the penultimate round in La Plata.

New Zealand team:

Tony Woodcock, Kevin Mealamu, Owen Franks, Luke Romano, Brodie Retallick, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, TJ Perenara, Dan Carter, Charles Piutau, Sonny Bill Williams, Ma’a Nonu, Waisake Naholo, Israel Dagg

Reserves: Codie Taylor, Wyatt Crockett, Nepo Laulala, Jeremy Thrush, Liam Messam, Brad Weber, Colin Slade, Ryan Crotty

Argentina Team:

Marcos Ayerza, Agustin Creevy, Ramiro Herrera, Manuel Carizza, Guido Petti Pagadizabal, Juan Manuel Leguizamon, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, Facundo Isa, Tomas Cubelli, Nicolas Sanchez, Santiago Cordero, Jeronimo de la Fuente, Marcelo Bosch, Horacio Agulla, Joaquin Tuculet

Reserves: Julian Montoya, Lucas Noguera, Nahuel Chaparro Tetaz, Benjamin Macome, Javier Ortega Desio, Martin Landajo, Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias, Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino

Prediction:

The All Blacks have an extremely prosperous brand that has been built on the back of consistency and success over many years. They have one of the highest winning percentages for any team in world sport and subsequently, an aura has been created that has many of their opposition mentally defeated before the match even begins. Looking at last three Rugby Championship campaigns, the All Blacks have an impeccable record having won 16 of their 18 matches, including one draw, with their only loss coming last year against the Springboks in Johannesburg. With success comes added pressure and even greater expectation, but early analysis and expert predictions suggest that the Kiwis are on track to take out this year’s title and consolidate their position at the top of the world rankings heading into the 2015 showpiece.

Looking at the squad named by Coach Steve Hansen, they are likely to cause Argentina problems across the pitch. The engine room of Woodcock, Mealamu and Franks, although ageing, have a point to prove against the visitor’s scrum this weekend. Luke Romano gets another shot in the second row and pairs up with Brodie Retallick, who will be a first choice starter come the Rugby World Cup. Jerome Kaino, Captain Richie McCaw and Kieran Read select themselves in the back row and it is good to see TJ Perenara getting a start at halfback. Dan Carter proved last week against Samoa that he still has what it takes to compete at this level with six of seven penalties from the boot and he has a dream centre combination of Sonny Bill Williams and Ma’a Nonu to work with on Friday. Charles Piutau was one of the most industrious All Blacks against Samoa and he has been rewarded with another start, alongside debutant and Super Rugby’s leading try scorer, Waisake Naholo. Israel Dagg gets another chance at fullback and one would think that this could be one of his last opportunities to prove himself until Ben Smith makes his return to the fold. The fact that there is one backline player from each franchise may reduce the fluidity of the All Blacks attack, however, they are all match winners in their own right and I expect them to cause havoc for the Pumas. The bench will get a fair bit of game time in this match as Hansen continues to experiment with his combinations, but it is somewhat inexperienced with Codie Taylor on debut, and Nepo Laulala and Brad Weber only in line to play their second matches.

Joining The Rugby Championship in the short term was never going to be easy for Argentina, but for the long term, it was always a necessary to grow the game. It took 18 matches for the Pumas to record their first victory in the tournament, with a 21 – 17 win last year over the Wallabies in Mendoza. Last season’s competition was easily the best on record for the South Americans, with three other matches (Australia and twice against South Africa) going down to the wire. The Pumas are yet to play an International Test match this season and with only five matches to go until the commencement of the Rugby World Cup, Coach Daniel Hourcade will use the next few matches to get his combinations right. Looking at the team named by Hourcade, the front row of Ayerza, Creevy and Herrera is beastly and will cause ‘everyone’ problems at scrum time. Lock Manuel Carizza has been playing for the Stormers, but he does seem somewhat off the pace and is more likely seen as a leader in the group. Back rowers Juan Manuel Leguizamon and Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe have been two of the best to ever wear the blue and white stripes and they will play a role in bringing up promising number eight, Facundo Isa who is a player of the future. Tomas Cubelli and Nicolas Sanchez are a diminutive halves pairing, however, they are excellent exponents of beating tired defences. Besides having one of the better names in world rugby, Jeronimo de la Fuente is a young centre that will be targeted, but the experienced Marcelo Bosch will partner him. Santiago Cordero is an exciting talent on the wing, and Horacio Agulla and Joaquin Tuculet look likely to be Rugby World Cup starters for the Pumas.

In Christchurch, the All Blacks will be out to make a statement after a subpar performance against the Samoans last week in Apia. Another poor performance on Friday could see a number of stalwarts dropped for the matches against the Wallabies and the Springboks in the coming weeks. The Argentinians will rely heavily on their power and prowess at scrum time, but they are coming up against a very experienced front row and their combinations won’t have had enough time to gel. From jerseys 5 – 15, New Zealand holds an edge and with good conditions expected under foot, the Argentinians should be in for the first half an hour, before the class of the All Blacks prevail with a convincing win.

Predicted result:  New Zealand to win comfortably @ $1.04 – Bet365

Best Bet 1: New Zealand -22.5 @ $1.82 – Tab.co.nz (early twitter play)

Australia ($1.60) vs South Africa ($2.36)

The Wallabies and the Springboks will open up their Rugby Championship accounts on Saturday night at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, in front of what is always a boisterous crowd. South Africa got their Test match season off to the best possible start last weekend with a comprehensive victory over a World XV coached by former Wallaby leader, Robbie Deans. Instead of opting for match practice, Michael Cheika and the Wallabies elected for a weeklong training camp on the Sunshine Coast with his extended squad, which has since been reduced for this match. Looking at the history between these two proud rugby nations, the Springboks have won four of the last five fixtures, including the last time these two faced off at Suncorp Stadium in 2013. However, the Wallabies will take confidence from their 24 – 23 win over the Springboks last season at Paterson’s Stadium in Perth.

Australia Team:

James Slipper, Stephen Moore, Sekope Kepu, Rob Simmons, Will Skelton, Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper, Scott Higginbotham, Will Genia, Quade Cooper, Rob Horne, Matt Giteau, Tevita Kuridrani, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Israel Folau

Reserves: Tatafu Polota-Nau, Scott Sio, Greg Holmes, James Horwill, David Pocock, Nick Phipps, Matt Toomua, Drew Mitchell

South Africa Team:

Tendai Mtawarira, Bismarck du Plessis, Jannie du Plessis, Eben Etzebeth, Victor Matfield, Marcell Coetzee, Francois Louw, Schalk Burger, Ruan Pienaar, Handre Pollard, Bryan Habana, Damien de Allende, Jesse Kriel, JP Pietersen, Willie le Roux

Reserves: Adriaan Strauss, Heinke van der Merwe, Frans Malherbe, Oupa Mohoje, Cobus Reinach, Pat Lambie, Lwazi Mvovo

Prediction:

The Wallabies head into this year’s Rugby Championship quietly confident with two of their Super Rugby teams making the semi-finals (Brumbies and Waratahs) and the introduction of some new eligibility laws allowing the likes of Drew Mitchell and Matt Giteau to play for the Wallabies, despite plying their trade in the French Top 14. This will be the first year that the Wallabies head into the quadrangular series under the guidance of Michael Cheika, a coach that brings a real sternness and a sense of resolve to the national team. With only five matches (South Africa, Argentina, New Zealand x2, USA) remaining, it is important that the Wallabies get their campaign off to the best possible start with a win this weekend because the All Blacks are looming, a team the Wallabies have had very little success against over the last decade. I think the team named by Michael Cheika this week is a strong one. James Slipper, Captain Stephen Moore and Sekope Kepu find themselves in the front row with Rob Simmons and Will Skelton selected as the starting locks. Scott Fardy continues to play good rugby and is rewarded with a start at blindside flanker, alongside former Wallabies Captain Michael Hooper and Rebels number eight Scott Higginbotham. Will Genia and Quade Cooper will once again be reunited in the gold jersey and it will be the first time that they have played inside of Matt Giteau since 2010. Tevita Kuridrani is one of the form outside centres in world rugby and will form a dangerous partnership with Giteau, and the selection of Rob Horne and Adam Ashley-Cooper on the wings tell me that the Wallabies are worried about what the Springboks can do out wide. Israel Folau rounds out the fifteen at fullback and he will be licking his lips at the prospect of coming up against Willie le Roux, one-on-one. Given that it is the first game, how much game time the bench gets is up in the air, but there are a number of level heads to call upon with the likes of Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Horwill and David Pocock selected as reserves forwards and Drew Mitchell should get his first minutes in the Wallabies jersey since 2012.

The Springboks have been on an upward slope over the past 12 months with victories over England, Australia and New Zealand. However, their away form is still somewhat shaky and they have a host of injured players on the sidelines at present. Against the World XV in Cape Town, the Springboks played a very vibrant and ambitious game and will be well prepared for a shootout with the Wallabies this week. However, one area that Coach Heyneke Meyer has been displeased about is the conditioning of many of the South African players. The World XV was a composite team and they failed to make the Springboks work for their points, whereas, the Wallabies will no doubt look to manoeuvre the big Springbok pack from side to side and hope to make some inroads as a result of lazy defending. It will be interesting to see if the Springboks revert back to a more ten-man style of play against the Wallabies or if they will meet the home team head on and spread the ball like they did with great success against the Wallabies in Brisbane in 2013.

Coach Heyneke Meyer named his squad on Wednesday evening with only one change from the match against the World XV, with Schalk Burger taking over from Warren Whitely at number eight. As always, the forward pack is uncompromising with the Sharks trio of Tendai ‘the beast’ Mtawarira, Bismarck du Plessis and Jannie du Plessis leading the charge from the front row. Eben Etzebeth partners one of his childhood heroes Victor Matfield in the second row with Marcel Coetzee, Francois Louw and Schalk Burger rounding out the loose trio. The loss of Duane Vermuelen is a big one for the Springboks, but Burger has developed additional skills over the past 18 months that make him a threat whenever he has the ball. Ruan Pienaar and Handre Pollard will wear the nine and ten jerseys respectively after a satisfactory effort last weekend against the World XV. Damien de Allende, last week’s man of the match, retains the inside centre jumper and will once again partner with debutant Jesse Kriel in the centres. Their combination oozes X-factor, however, coming up against the Wallabies and Matt Giteau and Tevita Kuridrani in particular, will be a much harsher challenge. Bryan Habana, JP Pietersen and Willie le Roux form a dangerous back three and one that will punish any aimless kicking from the Wallabies. Looking at the bench, Adriaan Strauss (hooker) and Pat Lambie (utility back) both have 40 caps or more, however, the remaining players have ten caps or less to their name.

Although it is only the first official Test match for both teams this season, a win could very well set the tone for the year, whereas a loss would set either team back a great deal and potentially sideline some players. The Wallabies will be targeted at the set piece and achieving parity is going to be a key focus with the Rugby World Cup being played on heavier grounds in England (and Wales) in two months time. Both teams look good on paper and have players who were in great form throughout Super Rugby. Both teams also have a number of X-Factor players and as a result, I can see this match being a high-scoring affair. Don’t underestimate the value of South Africa’s hit-out against the World XV either, as we saw with the All Blacks that ring rust does occur, even for the most seasoned professionals. For me, this is going to be a cracking game that goes down to the wire and the Brisbane crowd will be sure to be cheering on their six Queensland Reds representatives. I am going to tip the upset this week and choose South Africa, but it isn’t with 100% confidence.

Predicted result: South Africa to win @ $2.36 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 2: Australia vs South Africa – Total Points OVER 45.5 @ $1.91 – Bet365