Things are really starting to heat up in the 2015 version of Super Rugby with a mixture of high-scoring matches and physical local derbies the order of the day. The last two weeks have seen a trend of the home teams being victorious and once again, a number of upsets and disappointing results have hurt the wallet, however, that is the nature of the beast that is betting. Round 12 got underway on Friday with the Highlanders clicking into top gear after a tough early period against the Sharks and the Waratahs topped the Brumbies by three points in Canberra. On Saturday, the Blues kept the Force languishing at the bottom of the Super Rugby ladder with a big win at Eden Park, the Hurricanes were too good for the Crusaders in the match of the round and the Rebels upset the Chiefs in Melbourne. The late matches from South Africa saw the Stormers underestimate the Cheetahs and succumb to an eight-point loss before the Bulls attacking prowess shun through in a high-scoring match and victory over the Lions at Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria.
As a result, the Hurricanes remain at the top of the log, with the Brumbies hanging on in Australia and the Bulls now claim pole position in South Africa. The Chiefs, Highlanders and Waratahs round out the final three playoff places. This weekend, I am looking forward to the Crusaders and the Reds, who have had some colossal battles in the past, and both matches from South Africa with the Lions and the Highlanders to be a try-fest and the Stormers and Brumbies match will be a good gauge of where both teams currently are. From a betting standpoint, we all suffered last round as a result of some poor play, however, back on the horse this weekend with the following picks. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.
Best Bet 1: Waratahs -7.5 (vs Force) @ $1.91 – Bet365 (early twitter play)
Best Bet 2: Highlanders ML x2 Units (vs Lions) @ $2.00 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Brumbies +3.5 (vs Stormers) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
*More plays might be posted on twitter once Totals have been released
Crusaders ($1.10) vs Reds ($7.50)
The Crusaders and the Reds open up Friday’s Super Rugby account when both teams clash at AMI Stadium in Christchurch. After last weekend’s tough loss to the league-leading Hurricanes, the Crusaders season now hangs by a thread. However, this week they face a rested Reds outfit that has only managed two wins so far this season, so the home team needs to get at least four points out of this match. The Crusaders have dominated the head-to-head battles over the years, winning 15 of the 21 matches played.
Crusaders Team:
Wyatt Crockett, Codie Taylor, Nepo Laulala, Dominic Bird, Sam Whitelock, Jordan Taufua, Matt Todd, Kieran Read (Captain), Andy Ellis, Colin Slade, Nemani Nadolo, Dan Carter, Ryan Crotty, Nafi Tuitavake, Tom Taylor
Reserves: Ben Funnell, Alex Hodgman, Joe Moody, Jimmy Tupou, Richie McCaw, Mitchell Drummond, Kieron Fonotia, Jone Macilai
Reds Team:
James Slipper (Captain), James Hanson, Greg Holmes, Rob Simmons, James Horwill, Adam Thomson, Liam Gill, Jake Schatz, Will Genia, Nick Frisby, James O’Connor, Anthony Fainga’a, Samu Kerevi, Chris Feauai-Sautia, Lachie Turner
Reserves: Andrew Ready, Sef Faagase, Sam Talakai, Marco Kotze, Lolo Fakaosilea, Scott Gale, Ben Tapuai, JJ Taulagi
Prediction:
Both teams have had some fantastic battles over the years, none more memorable than the 2011 Super Rugby final where the Reds were victorious at Suncorp Stadium. It would be fair to say that in 2011, both teams were at their peaks and in recent years, they have both really fallen away. It will emotional match for all Cantabrians with Tom Taylor, Colin Slade and two of Christchurch’s favourite sons, Dan Carter and Richie McCaw due to wear the Crusaders colours at AMI Stadium for the last time. With the Crusaders still a chance to make the playoffs (just), I expect players like Sam Whitelock, Kieran Read, Colin Slade and Nemani Nadolo to really stand up and show their worth. The Reds have certainly improved in the weeks leading up to their bye, but the reliance on makeshift flyhalf Nick Frisby to run the show might be too much of an ask against a well drilled Crusaders outfit. The Reds also have a number of players who have been off-colour this season, so players like James Horwill, Will Genia and James O’Connor could really do with strong performances and announce themselves for national selection in the process. The Crusaders are on a three-match win streak against the Reds and haven’t lost to the Queenslanders at home since 1999. Coupled with the emotion of their beloved heroes playing their final games at AMI Stadium, the Crusaders should win this match quite comfortably or they can kiss their season goodbye.
Predicted result: Crusaders to win by double digits @ $1.10 – Sportsbet
Rebels ($1.53) vs Blues ($2.55)
Friday night’s Super Rugby action concludes at Aami Park in Melbourne, where the resurgent Rebels host the Auckland Blues. The Rebels are currently in a purple patch having won three of their last four matches, including their first ever win over the Chiefs last weekend. The Blues also showed some good form in easily disposing the Western Force in Auckland, so I expect a tough and gritty match in Melbourne.
Rebels Team:
Toby Smith, Pat Leafa, Paul Alo-Emile, Luke Jones, Lopeti Timani, Colby Fainga’a, Jordy Reid, Scott Higginbotham, Nic Stirzaker, Jack Debreczeni, Tom English, Mitch Inman, Dom Shipperley, Sefanaia Naivalu, Mike Harris
Reserves: Tom Sexton, Cruze Ah-Nau, Tim Metcher, Cadeyrne Neville, Scott Fuglistaller, Luke Burgess, Bryce Hegarty, Telusa Veainu
Blues Team:
Tony Woodcock, Kevin Mealamu, Angus Ta’avao, Culum Retallick, Hayden Triggs, Akira Ioane, Brendon O’Connor, Steven Luatua (Captain), Ihaia West, Tevita Li, George Moala, Francis Saili, Melani Nanai, Lolagi Visinia
Reserves: Greg Pleasants-Tate, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Sam Prattley, Josh Bekhuis, Joe Edwards, Jamison Gibson-Park, Simon Hickey, Hamish Northcott
Prediction:
Over the last few weeks, the Rebels have managed to work themselves into 10th place and only sit two matches behind the current sixth placed Waratahs. Although the Blues have only won two matches this season, both have come at Eden Park over the last few weeks. Of the three matches played between these teams so far, the Blues have won two out of the three games, however, the home team has won all matches in high-scoring games. In saying that, I am reluctant to go ‘overs’ in this match given that the Rebels only average 18 points per game and the Blues only average just less than 20 this season.
The Rebels have been heavily reliant on their defense this season and using Jack Debreczeni’s big boot to kick penalty goals, so it will be interesting to see if the Blues can find the same attacking form that they showed against the Force last week. Last weekend, Rebels number eight Scott Higginbotham became the equal-highest Super Rugby try scorer for a forward (29 tries) equalling Owen Finegan, but since he has had to play a more conservative role under the tutelage of Tony McGahan, he has only managed to cross the chalk once this season. Injuries to Jerome Kaino, Dan Bowden and Charles Piutau certainly rob the Blues of a lot of talent and experience, but keep an eye on flanker Akira Ioane, who has the potential to be a World XV player by the time the next Rugby World Cup comes around in 2019. With a number of changes in the Blues line-up (along with their unpredictably), and the Rebels still not totally convincing, I will stay away from this game, but the home team is in the box seat going on historical data.
Predicted result: Rebels to win in a close one @ $1.53 – Sportingbet
Hurricanes ($1.20) vs Sharks ($4.50)
The Hurricanes return to Westpac Stadium in Wellington for the second week in a row, where they face an extremely disappointing Sharks team on Saturday afternoon. In round 12, the Hurricanes beat the Crusaders 29 – 23 to stay atop the Super Rugby ladder, whereas the Sharks were embarrassed in Dunedin by the Highlanders, eventually going down by 33 points. The big news coming out of Wellington is that Beauden Barrett will miss the next month of action having injured his knee.
Hurricanes Team:
Chris Eves, Motu Matu’u, Ben Franks, Jeremy Thrush, James Broadhurst, Blade Thomson, Ardie Savea, Victor Vito, Chris Smylie, James Marshall, Matt Proctor, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Cory Jane, Nehe Milner Skudder
Reserves: Brayden Mitchell, Jeffrey Toomaga-Allen, Reggie Goodes, Callum Gibbins, Brad Shields, Frae Wilson, Otere Black, Rey Lee-Lo
Sharks Team:
Tendai Mtawawira, Bismarck du Plessis, Jannie du Plessis, Stephan Lewies, Marco Wentzel (Captain), Marcell Coetzee, Etienne Oosthuizen, Renaldo Bothma, Stefan Ungerer, Lionel Cronje, S’bura Sithole, Frans Steyn, JP Pietersen, Odwa Ndungane, Lwazi Mvovo
Reserves: Franco Marais, Dale Chadwick, Lourens Adriaanse, Mouritz Botha, Kyle Cooper, Conrad Hoffman, Andre Estherhuizen, Waylon Murray,
Prediction:
The Hurricanes continue their dream run at the top of the Super Rugby ladder, a position (I don’t believe) they haven’t been in this late in the season before. The ‘Canes coaching staff have opted to rest Julian Savea and rightly so given that they come up against a toothless Sharks outfit. The Hurricanes are boosted by the return of number eight Victor Vito and impressive performances by Blade Thomson off the bench in recent weeks have seen him elevated into the starting team. For the Sharks, Willem Alberts takes a break this week and Cobus Reinach broke his hand against the Highlanders, so the gifted halfback has been sent home and is replaced by Stefan Ungerer, a former South Africa under-20 player. It is a bit of a mix-and-match Sharks team with a number of players playing out of position, but the key matchup comes in the centres with Steyn and Pietersen marking the benchmark combination, Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith. The Hurricanes haven’t had a lot of success over the Sharks in the last ten years, only winning one match since 2006, but they smell blood in the water in the Pacific Ocean this time around.
Although the Hurricanes home record doesn’t make for pretty reading (50%) since the start of the competition and despite the injury to star-player Beauden Barrett and the resting of Julian Savea, the Hurricanes are on a high, while the Sharks are wounded and I expect a pretty easy victory for the home team this weekend in another match that should produce plenty of points.
Predicted result: Hurricanes to win @ $1.20 – Sportsbet
Western Force ($3.35) vs Waratahs ($1.33)
The Western Force return home to the ‘Force Field’ in Perth on Saturday where they face the ‘form team of the competition’, the Waratahs who are on a three-match win streak. The Force are still pegged to the foot of the Super Rugby ladder having lost their last ten matches in a row, while the Waratahs currently sit in sixth place and are ready to make a charge towards the playoffs having beaten the Brumbies in Canberra last weekend.
Western Force Team:
Pek Cowan, Nathan Charles, Tetera Faulkner, Steve Mafi, Adam Coleman, Angus Cottrell, Matt Hodgson (Captain), Ben McCalman, Ryan Louwrens, Sias Ebersohn, Nick Cummins, Solomoni Rasolea, Kyle Godwin, Luke Morahan, Dane Haylett-Petty
Reserves: Heath Tessmann, Chris Heiberg, Guy Millar, Wilhelm Steenkamp, Kane Koteka, Alby Mathewson, Luke Burton, Marcel Brache
Waratahs Team:
Benn Robinson, Tolu Latu, Sekope Kepu, Will Skelton, Dave Dennis (Captain), Jacques Potgieter, Michael Hooper, Wycliff Palu, Nick Phipps, Bernard Foley, Rob Horne, Kurtley Beale, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Taqele Naiyaravoro, Israel Folau
Reserves: Hugh Roach, Jeremy Tilse, Paddy Ryan, Mitchell Chapman, Stephen Hoiles, Brendan McKibbin, Matt Carraro, Peter Betham
Prediction:
Western Force coach Michael Foley must be very nervous about his position having lost ten matches in a row, especially after opening their season with a dominant win over the reigning premiers. They have been relatively injury-free this season and this has allowed the Force to build some consistency, but this squad of players just doesn’t seem to be able to compete for 80 minutes with the big dogs of the competition. The back row continues to be a nuisance for opposition and halfback Ryan Louwrens has been in good form scoring two tries in his first two matches and his size advantage has given the Force an extra dimension and as a result, Alby Mathewson returns off the bench this week. Like the Force, Michael Cheika has also been consistent with his selections and that is now starting to reap rewards for the reigning champs. Although the Waratahs are winless against the Force since early 2014, the visitors will have higher motivation and simply need the points to maintain their push towards defending their title. The last two weeks have seen the Force concede 76 points and with the attacking threats that the Waratahs have, things could really open up after a tight match last weekend with the Brumbies.
Predicted result: Waratahs to win @ $1.33 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 1: Waratahs -7.5 (vs Force) @ $1.91 – Bet365 (early twitter play)
Lions ($1.82) vs Highlanders ($2.00)
The first game from the Republic on Saturday night comes to us from Ellis Park, where the Lions will entertain the high-flying Highlanders. Last weekend, the Lions fairy-tale run was broken in a narrow loss to the Bulls in Pretoria, whereas the Highlanders thumped what looked like a toothless Sharks outfit. These two teams faced off last year in Dunedin, where the Highlanders secured a narrow 23 – 22 win, having led 23 – 0 at half time. Interestingly, the last five matches have gone overs, so if the weather is clear, this would be a good play.
Lions Team:
Schalk van der Merwe, Robbie Coetzee, Julian Redelinghuys, Andries Ferreira, Franco Mostert, Jaco Kriel, Warwick Tecklenburg, Warren Whiteley (Captain), Ross Cronje, Marnitz Boshoff, Courtnall Skosan, Alwyn Hollenbach, Harold Vorster, Ruan Combrink, Andries Coetzee
Reserves: Armand van der Merwe, Jacques van Rooyen, Ruan Dreyer, Robert Kruger, Ruaan Lerm, Faf de Klerk, Elton Jantjies, Howard Mnisi
Highlanders Team:
Kane Hames, Liam Coltman, Josh Hohneck, Tom Franklin, Mark Reddish, Gareth Evans, Dan Pryor, Nasi Manu (Co-Captain), Aaron Smith, Lima Sopoaga, Patrick Osborne, Richard Buckman, Malakai Fekitoa, Waisake Naholo, Ben Smith
Reserves: Ash Dixon, Brendon Edmonds, Ross Geldenhuys, Elliot Dixon, Gareth Evans, John Hardie, Fumiaki Tanaka, Marty Banks, Jason Emery
Prediction:
The Lions almost did the ‘impossible’ last week by going to Loftus and coming away with a full-house of points, however, the Bulls were just a little bit too good. In saying that, the Lions played with great attacking flair and coach Johan Ackermann and his coaching staff really need to be commended for making what this franchise is today. I am a little puzzled with the inclusion of Ross Cronje and Marnitz Boshoff over Faf de Klerk and Elton Jantjies and to me this tells me that the Lions don’t want to play at the Highlanders pace. Last weekend, the return of Aaron Smith, Malakai Fekitoa and Ben Smith reignited the Highlanders attacking game last weekend and proved just how dangerous they can be. The Lions didn’t face teams with great attacking records throughout their recent good run of form and when the Bulls (who can attack) put them under pressure, they didn’t have the counter punch to wrestle back the victory. Now the Highlanders know that their pack isn’t going to dominate games, so they rely heavily on giving their backs space to work their magic and I think this attacking mindset and the fact the Lions look set on kicking the ball to them is going to unravel the home team once again, but this time in Johannesburg.
Predicted result: Highlanders to win @ $2.00 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 2: Highlanders ML x2 Units (vs Lions) @ $2.00 – Sportsbet
Stormers ($1.62) vs Brumbies ($2.30)
The final match of the round will be a Cape Town blockbuster between the Stormers and the Brumbies from Canberra. The home team will be stinging after an humiliating loss to the Cheetahs last weekend in Bloemfontein and the Brumbies are just clinging onto the Australian conference lead by one competition point having been beaten by the ‘Tahs in the nation’s capital last weekend. Historically, the Brumbies have a strong record over the Stormers and they have been able to win 50% of the matches in the Western Cape.
Stormers Team:
Steven Kitshoff, Bongi Mbonambi, Frans Malherbe, Eben Etzebeth, Manuel Carizza, Schalk Burger, Siya Kolisi, Duane Vermuelen, Nic Groom, Demetri Catrakilis, Dillyn Leyds, Damian de Allende, Huw Jones, Johnny Kotze, Cheslin Kolbe
Reserves: Scarra Ntubeni, Alistair Vermaak, Vincent Koch, Jean Kleyn, Nizaam Carr, Louis Schreuder, Kurt Coleman, Pat Howard
Brumbies Team:
JP Smith, Stephen Moore (Captain), Ben Alexander, Rory Arnold, Sam Carter, Scott Fardy, David Pocock, Ita Vaea, Nic White, Christian Lealifano, Joe Tomane, Robbie Coleman, Tevita Kuridrani, Henry Speight, Jesse Mogg
Reserves: Josh Mann-Rea, Allan Alaalatoa, Ruan Smith, Jordan Smiler, Jarrad Butler, Michael Dowsett, James Dargaville, Nigel Ah Wong
Prediction:
This game marks the start of a four game stretch at Newlands for the Stormers and the Brumbies will want to get their tour off to the best possible start. Both teams are coming off narrow losses, so they will be desperate for the win. This clash has a test-match feel about it with a number of Internationals facing off against each other. I expect it to be extremely physical and confrontational. The Brumbies have a strong pack and can certainly match it with the Stormers up front, but the visitors have a considerable edge in the backs and I think this is why the Brumbies will come up trumps in a narrow victory.
Predicted result: Brumbies to win @ $2.30 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Brumbies +3.5 (vs Stormers) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
