As we edge towards the playoffs, which are now less than two months away, Super Rugby is starting to heat up and the pressure is starting to build with the Rugby World Cup on the horizon. Round 11 was more in line with predictions across the park, with six of the seven home teams winning, as well as all favourites. The round got underway on Friday with the Chiefs holding off a spirited Western Force comeback in Hamilton and the Brumbies took care of an understrength Highlanders outfit in Canberra. Saturday’s action saw the Crusaders defeat the Blues, whilst the Rebels gave the Waratahs a big fright in Sydney. The Lions narrowly beat the Cheetahs in the most entertaining match of the round, before the Stormers triumphed over the Bulls in a traditional South African arm-wrestle. The final match of the round came to us from Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane and although the Reds did put up a good performance in patches, the Hurricanes were simply too strong.

As a result, the Hurricanes remain at the top of the log, with the Brumbies and the Stormers leading their respective conferences. The Chiefs, Bulls and Highlanders make up the final three playoff places, but with a number of weeks still remaining, these placings could still change considerably. This weekend, I am looking forward to the Hurricanes match against the Crusaders and the Brumbies clash with the Waratahs. Both games are sure to play a major role in terms of who might top their respective conferences this year. New Zealand derbies are generally played at a very high standard and I don’t see this being an exception, but the match in Canberra will probably be more of a grind with Wallabies spots on the line. From a betting standpoint, it was another profitable round last week, thanks largely to the Hurricanes 3-unit play. This week, I am leaning on the Stormers to win comfortably over the Cheetahs for another 2-unit play. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.

Best Bet 1: Waratahs +2.5 @ $1.87 – Tab.co.nz (early twitter play)

Best Bet 2: Chiefs -6.5 (vs Rebels) @ $1.87 – Tab.co.nz (early twitter play)

Best Bet 3: Stormers – 4.5 (x2 Units) (vs Cheetahs) @ $1.75 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
*More plays might be posted on twitter once Totals have been released

Highlanders ($1.35) vs Sharks ($3.40)

Super Rugby action kicks off on Friday afternoon from Forsyth-Barr Stadium in Dunedin, where the Highlanders face the battling Sharks. Loosing three All Blacks to a mandatory ‘rest week’ was always going to make the Highlanders visit to Canberra much harder, and as a result, they fell short against the Brumbies 18 – 31. The Sharks have travelled over from South Africa during the week having had their own bye last weekend and this match very much is a must-win should they wish to make the playoffs this season. The Sharks have had a stranglehold over the Highlanders in the last ten matches played, having won eight of them, but the home team did beat the Sharks the last time they played in Dunedin last season.

Highlanders Team:

Kane Hames, Liam Coltman, Josh Hohneck, Tom Franklin, Mark Reddish, Gareth Evans, Dan Pryor, Nasi Manu (Co-Captain), Aaron Smith, Lima Sopoaga, Patrick Osborne, Richard Buckman, Malakai Fekitoa, Waisake Naholo, Ben Smith

Reserves: Ash Dixon, Brendon Edmonds, Pingi Talaapitaga, Joe Latta, Elliot Dixon, Gareth Evans, Fumiaki Tanaka, Marty Banks, Jason Emery

Sharks Team:

Tendai Mtawawira, Bismarck du Plessis, Lourens Adriaanse, Stephan Lewies, Marco Wentzel (Captain), Marcell Coetzee, Renaldo Bothma, Willem Alberts, Cobus Reinach, Fred Zeilinga, Lwazi Mvovo, Andre Estherhuizen, JP Pietersen, S’bura Sithole, Odwa Ndungane

Reserves: Monde Habebe, Thomas du Toit, Matt Stevens, Lubabalo Mtyanda, Etienne Oosthuizen, Conrad Hoffman, Lionel Cronje, Waylon Murray,

Prediction:

When Jamie Joseph decided to rest Aaron Smith, Malakai Fekitoa and Ben Smith last week, the Highlanders were always going to be up against it in Canberra. They are the heart and soul of that team and not only do they capitalise on opportune moments themselves, but they also create a lot of opportunities for their strike players around them. In saying that, in a World Cup year, NZ need their stars to rest and New Zealand and South Africa are lucky that they have the depth to be able to do it, although it may have not seemed like it last weekend. This week, the Highlanders three backline stars return, which will no doubt instil confidence amongst the line up, however, the unavailability of their best lock Joe Wheeler (out for the season) doesn’t make the Highlanders job any easier this week coming up against a Sharks team with their backs to the wall.

During the week, Bismarck du Plessis requested not to regain the Sharks captaincy, having now served his four-match suspension for reckless play. The back end of the season is going to be important for Bismarck, once regarded as the undisputed best hooker in the game, Adriaan Strauss of the Bulls has since eclipsed him. Stephan Lewies is also in line to play his first game of the season at lock. 2014 was a breakthrough year for him and Heyneke Meyer will have a keen eye on his performances over the coming weeks. The return of JP Pietersen at outside centre does also bolster the midfield somewhat, however, he has a huge task on his hands in trying to contain Malakai Fekitoa this week. The Sharks will look to keep things pretty tight in Dunedin and play a structured game rather than playing into the hands of Highlanders who like a bit of razzle-dazzle.

Based on how the Sharks have performed so far this season, there is no way I can back them for an outright victory this week. Last year in Durban, the Highlanders did what many thought they couldn’t do by beating the Sharks and I think they’ll be able to do the same in Dunedin this weekend, but its going to be a physical match that might only be decided by a couple of penalties, with a number of Sharks players international careers looking questionable.

Predicted result:  Highlanders to win an arm-wrestle @ $1.35 – Sportsbet

Brumbies ($1.70) vs Waratahs ($2.17)

The Brumbies will run out at GIO Stadium in Canberra for the second consecutive week when they face their northern rivals, the Waratahs in what is expected to be a fiercely contested matchup. The Brumbies returned to the winner’s circle last weekend on the back of a strong performance by star flanker David Pocock, when they beat an understrength Highlanders outfit. The Waratahs were also victorious against the Melbourne Rebels, but it was once again a case of not turning the screws and finishing off their visitors in Sydney. The Waratahs head into this matchup having won the last three matches, however, the Waratahs haven’t won in Canberra since 2011, which they will be well and truly aware of.

Brumbies Team:

JP Smith, Stephen Moore (Captain), Ben Alexander, Jordan Smiler, Sam Carter, Scott Fardy, David Pocock, Ita Vaea, Michael Dowsett, Christian Lealifano, Joe Tomane, Robbie Coleman, Tevita Kuridrani, Henry Speight, Jesse Mogg

Reserves: Josh Mann-Rea, Allan Alaalatoa, Ruan Smith, Blake Enever, Jarrad Butler, Joe Powell, James Dargaville, Nigel Ah Wong

Waratahs Team:

Benn Robinson, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Sekope Kepu, Will Skelton, Dave Dennis (Captain), Jacques Potgieter, Michael Hooper, Wycliff Palu, Nick Phipps, Bernard Foley, Rob Horne, Kurtley Beale, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Peter Betham, Israel Folau

Reserves: Tolu Latu, Jeremy Tilse, Paddy Ryan, Wycliff Palu, Stephen Hoiles, Brendan McKibbin, Matt Carraro, Taqele Naiyaravoro

Prediction:

Last week’s win was an important one for the Brumbies, but I still think it’s still a bit of a band aid for some bigger depth issues that they currently have. The return of Ben Alexander and Sam Carter does strengthen their tight five, with Fardy, Pocock and Vaea making up a very strong back row. Jesse Mogg also had a solid game back form injury, but in the past he has gone missing in the big games, so it will be interesting to see how he performs on Friday night.

Although the Waratahs have the edge in terms of winning the last three matches, the Brumbies have dominated the contests in Canberra 8 – 3. In saying that, the ‘Tahs have now won four matches in a row against Australian opposition and they will be eager to repeat their resounding victory over the Brumbies a few weeks ago. I think the Tahs have a stronger front row, more imposing second row, but I think the breakdown will be an even contest with five of the six players proven Internationals. The matchup between David Pocock and Michael Hooper will be worth the price of admission alone and there are a number of other positional clashes that Waratahs and Wallabies coach Michael Cheika will have an eye on. Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley are a stronger and more experienced pairing than Michael Dowsett and Christian Leali’ifano and I think the rest of the backlines are pretty evenly matched. The Brumbies always start very strongly at home and often score the first try, so the Waratahs will most likely be playing a territory game early on to negate this. This match will go along way to determining who wins the Australian conference and I can’t go past the Waratahs this week, a team that has been there and done it before and a team that is due for a big performance.

Predicted result:  Waratahs to win @ $2.17 – Sportingbet

Best Bet 1: Waratahs +2.5 @ $1.87 – Tab.co.nz (early twitter play)

Blues ($1.31) vs Western Force ($3.50)

The first of five matches on Saturday comes to us from Eden Park in Auckland, where the Blues face the Western Force. An understrength Blues outfit couldn’t match it with the Crusaders last week in Christchurch, however, they will be eager to secure their second win of the season in front of their home fans. The Western Force are currently languishing in last place in the competition, a spot below the Blues, but they certainly gave the Chiefs some problems in last weekend’s 27 – 35 loss and will be approaching this match like a do-or-die.

Blues Team:

Tony Woodcock, Kevin Mealamu, Charlie Faumauina, Josh Bekhuis, Hayden Triggs, Akira Ioane, Brendon O’Connor, Jerome Kaino, Jimmy Cowan, Dan Bowden, Melani Nanai, George Moala/Hamish Northcott, Francis Saili, Lolagi Visinia, Charles Piutau
Reserves: James Parsons, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Angus Ta’avao, Steven Luatua, Luke Braid, Jamison Gibson-Park, Ihaia West, Tevita Li

Western Force Team:

Pek Cowan, Nathan Charles, Tetera Faulkner, Steve Mafi, Adam Coleman, Angus Cottrell, Matt Hodgson, Ben McCalman, Ryan Louwrens, Sias Ebersohn, Nick Cummins, Luke Burton, Kyle Godwin, Luke Morahan, Dane Haylett-Petty
Reserves: Heath Tessmann, Chris Heiberg, Guy Millar, Willem Steenkamp, Kane Koteka, Justin Turner, Junior Rasolea, Marcel Brache

Prediction:

Very rarely do you find a New Zealand franchise involved in a bottom of the table clash. The Blues have had a pretty luckless season and certainly haven’t performed to the level that they are capable of. The Force got their season off to a bang with a victory over the reigning premiers in Sydney in round one, something no team could manage last year, but it has been downhill since then. Interestingly, the Western Force actually has the best ruck retention percentage in the competition. However, the fact that they haven’t been able to win matches, says that their defense isn’t up to scratch and they just aren’t making good use of the ball. I really think they need to let Sias Ebersohn go and look at trying to recruit a running flyhalf that will be able to create more opportunities for their backs. The red card to Ian Prior last weekend was completely justified and unfortunately for Prior, his chance to spend a few weeks in the starting team while Alby Mathewson recuperates has been taken away from him.

Having lost to the Force in the inaugural match played between these two teams in 2008, the Blues have won the previous four meetings and drawn one. Due to the Cricket World Cup, the Blues have only played once at Eden Park this season for one win. This is a game that they need to win or the knives will be sharpened in Auckland and with the return of Jerome Kaino and Charles Piutau, I think they’ll be able to take care of the Force in a game that combines moments of individual brilliance with some schoolboy errors.

Predicted result: Blues to win @ $1.31 – Sportingbet

Hurricanes ($1.61) vs Crusaders ($2.34)

The match of the day takes place at Westpac Stadium in Wellington on Saturday evening, where the top-of-the-table Hurricanes host the perennial superpowers, the Crusaders. The Hurricanes returned to winning ways last weekend with a comfortable victory over the Reds in Brisbane and the Crusaders snapped a two match losing streak by defeating the Blues 29 – 15 at AMI Stadium. This is the first of two matches to take place between these two proud franchises over the next month and the Crusaders will want to get revenge having lost both matches to the ‘Canes in 2014, albeit by narrow margins.

Hurricanes Team:

Reggie Goodes, Motu Matu’u, Ben Franks, Jeremy Thrush, James Broadhurst, Callum Gibbons, Ardie Savea, Brad Shields, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Julian Savea, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Cory Jane, Nehe Milner Skudder

Reserves: Dane Coles, Jeffrey Toomaga-Allen, Chris Eves, Mark Abbott, Blade Thomson, Chris Smylie, Matt Proctor, James Marshall

Crusaders Team:

Wyatt Crockett, Codie Taylor, Owen Franks, Luke Romano, Sam Whitelock, Jordan Taufua, Matt Todd, Kieran Read (Captain), Andy Ellis, Colin Slade, Nemani Nadolo, Dan Carter, Ryan Crotty, David Havili, Tom Taylor

Reserves: Ben Funnell, Joe Moody, Nepo Laulala, Jimmy Tupou, Luke Whitelock, Mitchell Drummond, Kieron Fonotia, Nafi Tuitavake

Prediction:

The Hurricanes got back to winning ways last weekend with a confidence-boosting win in Brisbane and find themselves in pole position in this year’s competition. However, they still have to play both the Crusaders and the Chiefs twice, as well as the Highlanders and the Sharks, so it isn’t a foregone conclusion that they will finish with a home semi-final yet. In saying that, they have been a fantastic team to watch this year and they have a number of seasoned campaigners propped up by their exuberant youths in players like Nehe Milner Skudder (who returns this week) and Ardie Savea. Their backline is also extremely dangerous and Beauden Barrett has become a master at running the show and in my opinion is a shoe-in for the All Blacks number 10 jersey.
Looking at the Crusaders, there are still a number of concerns with their top guns not firing or playing to their potential. To make matters worse, another head injury to Richie McCaw doesn’t bode well for the All Blacks skipper, but it does give Matt Todd, an excellent open-side flanker, a starting birth. Todd’s support play makes him a fantastic ATS option, but his work at the breakdown would arguably be better than McCaw’s at present. Israel Dagg also remains on the sidelines for at least another week due to a troublesome calf injury. Daniel Carter is currently the best New Zealand backline defender in this year’s competition, having only missed one tackle. In saying that, his offensive game hasn’t been at the quality that we are used to and it will need to improve if the Crusaders want to make the playoffs this season.
With a number of All Black battles taking place this weekend, I can assure you that this isn’t a game that you want to miss. I expect Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith to have big outings this week and the battle between Julian Savea and Nemani Nadolo, albeit on separate wings to be devastating. A win for the Crusaders here would revitalise their season, but the ‘Canes defensive edge and their consistency has me leaning towards a home victory by about seven points in front of what should be a strong crowd at the Cake Tin.

Predicted result:  Hurricanes to win @ $1.61 – Sportingbet

Rebels ($2.90) vs Chiefs ($1.42)

The Rebels return home to AAMI Stadium in Melbourne for the first time in a month, where they welcome a Chiefs outfit that is starting to find some good form in this year’s competition. Having beaten the Brumbies in round ten, the Rebels ventured to Sydney to try and secure their first ever win in the NSW capital, but they fell agonisingly short by two points. The Chiefs extended their winning streak to four straight matches by beating a 14-man Force team in Hamilton, but it wasn’t as easy as some may have thought it would’ve been.

Rebels Team:

Toby Smith, Pat Leafa, Paul Alo-Emile, Luke Jones, Lopeti Timani, Sean McMahon, Jordy Reid, Scott Higginbotham, Nic Stirzaker, Jack Debreczeni, Dom Shipperley, Mitch Inman, Tamati Ellison, Sefanaia Naivalu, Mike Harris

Reserves: Tom Sexton, Cruze Ah-Nau, Tim Metcher, Cadeyrne Neville, Colby Fainga’a, Luke Burgess, Tom English Bryce Hegarty

Chiefs Team:

Pauliasi Manu, Hika Elliott, Ben Tameifuna, Matt Symons, Michael Fitzpatrick, Liam Messam (Captain), Sam Cane, Michael Leitch, Brad Weber, Andrew Horrell, James Lowe, Sonny Bill Williams, Charlie Ngatai, Tim Nanai-Williams, Tom Marshall

Reserves: Quentin MacDonald, Siate Tokolahi, Jamie McKenzie, Michael Allardice, Johan Bardoul, Augustine Pulu, Damien McKenzie, Bryce Heem

Prediction:

The season is all but over for the Rebels after a number of agonisingly close losses, but the Chiefs still have a good chance of securing that vital home semi-final later on in the season. Week after week, I mention that the Rebels play well above their weight and they defend like their lives depend on it (most of the time), but they just lack that punch that someone like James O’Connor or Kurtley Beale gave to them in season’s past. Flanker Jordy Reid has been rewarded with a rare start having had a great cameo off the bench last weekend, but I think where the Rebels are benefiting this season, is that fact that they have been relatively injury free and have been able to announce a consistent squad, week-in and week-out.

The Rebels will have their hands full this weekend coming up against one of the most dangerous attacking teams in the league, however, last week when the Chiefs were up one player, they drew with the Force over a 52-minute period, 18 – 18. This is somewhat flabbergasting considering how easy they make it look when the opposition has a full complement of players. Tim Nanai-Williams was arguably one of the players of the round last week (13 carriers for 96 metres, 8 defenders beaten, 5 offloads, four clean breaks, one try), but after this weekend, the Chiefs will be without his services for a couple of weeks as he is on duty for Samoa on the Sevens circuit. The Chiefs are still trying to figure out whom their best back up flyhalf is after the injury to Aaron Cruden, but with players like Brad Weber and Sonny-Bill Williams inside and outside of the nominated player, their job is made a lot easier.

Of the three matches played between the Rebels and the Chiefs, the Melbournians have never won. In saying that, the Chiefs have only been victorious over the Rebels by six points in the last two encounters. With clear skies predicted in Melbourne, the Chiefs will gain ascendency in the pack and their backline will do the rest. The Chiefs are also due a complete performance and I think that they will run up a big score in Melbourne on Saturday night.

Predicted result: Chiefs to win @ $1.42 – Sportingbet

Best Bet 2: Chiefs -6.5 (vs Rebels) @ $1.87 – Tab.co.nz (early twitter play)

Cheetahs ($2.55) vs Stormers ($1.53)

The penultimate match of the weekend comes to us from Vodacom Park in Bloemfontein, where the 12th placed Cheetahs, entertain South Africa’s best, the Stormers on Saturday night. The Cheetahs fought extremely hard and played some champagne rugby last weekend against the Lions, but their defense once again let them down in their 29 – 34 loss. Conversely, the Stormers held onto a narrow two-point victory over the Bulls in what was a ferocious, but error-ridden match. Last year’s two match series was squared at one a piece, but both teams will remember the last match that was played in Cape Town, where the home team shutout the Cheetahs 33 – 0 in a dominant performance.

Cheetahs Team:

Caylib Oosthuizen, Torsten van Jaarsveld, Coenie Oosthuizen/Maks van Dyk, Carl Wegner, Francois Uys (Captain), Tienie Burger, Boom Prinsloo, Willie Britz, Sarel Pretorius, Joe Pietersen, Sergeal Petersen, Michael van der Spuy, Francois Venter, Rayno Benjamin, Cornal Hendricks, Clayton Blommetjies

Reserves: Stephan Coetzee, Danie Mienie, Maks van Dyk/Ewald van der Westhuizen, Steven Sykes, Carel Greef, Tian Meyer, Francois Brummer, Danie Dames

Stormers Team:

Oli Kebble, Bongi Mbonambi, Frans Malherbe, Jean Kleyn, Ruan Botha, Schalk Burger, Siya Kolisi, Duane Vermuelen, Nic Groom, Demetri Catrakilis, Dillyn Leyds, Damian de Allende, Juan de Jong (Captain), Johnny Kotze, Cheslin Kolbe

 

Reserves: Scarra Ntubeni, Alistair Vermaak, Vincent Koch, Manuel Carizza, Nizaam Carr, Louis Schreuder, Kurt Coleman, Huw Jones

Prediction:

Cheetahs coach Naka Drotske has rung the changes this week naming a new look backline that has a lot of pace. The experimentation of Joe Pietersen at fullback probably cost them the match last weekend, as he was very shaky missing at least three tackles in the last line of defense, which all led to tries. His attacking potency is still worth having him being on the field, so he finds himself in the more familiar flyhalf role this weekend. The forward pack is industrious, but the gap left by Adriaan Strauss (last season’s leader) and Heinrich Brussow (injured) robs them of their x-factor, solidity and the experience you need when it matters most.

The Stormers are now in the box seat in the South African conference, but they know a slip up in Bloemfontein would invite the Bulls back into the equation. Captain Duane Vermuelen put in another herculean performance last weekend against the Bulls and it was epitomised by a last minute charge down on Bulls standoff Handre Pollard. He continues to go from strength to strength and the Stormers are lucky they can count on him to make the big plays. The Stormers will look for a bonus point this weekend and will have watched how the Lions cut the Cheetahs to pieces last weekend. Although they have decided to rest Steven Kitshoff and Eben Etzebeth, for me, it would be a monumental upset if the Cheetahs won and the Stormers should coast to a pretty comfortable victory after a pretty bruising first half.

Predicted result: Stormers to win @ $1.53 – Sportingbet

Best Bet 3: Stormers – 4.5 (x2 Units) (vs Cheetahs) @ $1.75 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)

 

Bulls ($1.33) vs Lions ($3.35)

 

The final match of the round comes to us from Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria, where the Bulls and the Lions will lock horns in a guaranteed physical battle. The Blues will be smarting over their narrow two-point loss the Stormers in Cape Town last week and the Lions won their fifth match in a row by less than five points, in what was the game of the round against the Cheetahs. The Bulls beat the Lions eight times in a row, before the Lions have fought back to win the last two encounters, including a 22 – 18 victory earlier this month at Ellis Park.

Bulls Team:

Trevor Nyakane, Adriaan Strauss, Marcell van der Merwe, Flip van der Merwe, Victor Matfield (Captain), Lappies Labushcagne, Jacques du Plessis, Arno Botha, Piet van Zyl, Handre Pollard, Francois Hougaard, Jan Serfontein, JJ Engelbrecht, Bjorn Basson, Jesse Kriel

Reserves: Callie Visagie, Morné Mellett, Andrew Beerwinkel, Grant Hattingh, Pierre Spies, Tian Schoeman, Burger Odendaal Jurgen Visser

Lions Team:

Jacques van Rooyen, Robbie Coetzee, Julian Redelinghuys, Andries Ferreira, Franco Mostert, Jaco Kriel, Warwick Tecklenburg, Warren Whitely (Captain), Faf de Klerk, Elton Jantjies, Andries Coetzee, Howard Mnisi, Harold Vorster, Ruan Combrink, Marnitz Boshoff

Reserves: Armand van der Merwe, Corne Fourie, Ruan Dreyer, MB Lusaseni, Robert Kruger, Ross Cronje, Alwyn Hollenbach, Courtnall Skosan

Prediction:

Neighbour versus neighbour will be the theme when two of South Africa’s proudest franchises clash on the Highveld on Saturday night. If the Bulls want to win the South African conference this year, this is a match they can ill afford to lose. They simply have to stop the Lions momentum and do so by winning the battle of the forwards, something other teams have struggled to do in recent weeks. Although not as dominant as last year, the Lions scrum is still powerful and the back row continues to tackle their way to the top of the statistics. In the backs, Lionel Mapoe at outside centre has been somewhat of an unsung hero for the Lions in recent years. He is a very efficient defensive player and now he possesses an offload game that is creating opportunities for his outside backs. Unfortunately, he finds himself on the sideline this week, but his replacement Harold Vorster who moves out once position, is having a breakthrough year. Winger Ruan Combrink has also had an exceptional season and he is also reaping the praises both in South Africa and abroad and was probably surprised when his name wasn’t called out in the two Springbok squads announced earlier this week.

The return of Victor Matfield (Captain) will help the Bulls secure aerial dominance and with Handré Pollard in fine form in the number ten jumper, the Bulls will look to grind down the Lions before unleashing their outside backs in Bjorn Basson, Francois Hougaard and Jesse Kriel. On paper, the Bulls have enough firepower to return the favour this weekend at home and I think this will be the end of the Lion’s fairy-tale with a number of tough matches still to come for them. Adding to that, Loftus Versfeld is not a happy hunting ground for the visitors, and a ground where the Bulls seldom lose. Expect a tight tussle with the Bulls pulling away at the end on the back of another very good Handré Pollard performance

Predicted result: Bulls @ $1.33 – Sportingbet