Four teams and three matches remain to see who will be the kings of provincial rugby in the southern hemisphere this season. The Hurricanes have been on top of their game since week one of the competition and this weekend they come up against a Brumbies outfit that put the sword to the Stormers last weekend in Cape Town. The other semi-final sees the reining champion Waratahs host the high-flying Highlanders in Sydney, after they were too strong for Chiefs last Saturday in Dunedin. That 20-point Newlands drubbing also meant that for the first time in 12 years, South Africa won’t have a participant in the final four of the tournament.

Looking at key statistics heading into these semi-finals, the first placed team (Hurricanes) has gone on to win the competition 13/19 times (68%) with the second placed team (Waratahs) winning the title 5/19 times (27%). Therefore, only once has a team finished in position three or four and gone onto become Champions, which was the Crusaders in 1999. These statistics don’t bode very well for the likes of the Brumbies and the Waratahs, but one cannot discount the role that home field advantage plays at this stage of the tournament. As aforementioned, Semi-final rugby aligns itself much more with Test rugby as opposed to what we have seen before, especially given the need to just win and not worry about securing bonus points. In saying that, it is also pertinent to note that all four semi-finalist feature in the top five for total tries scored this season. It is always great to see the attacking teams rewarded for playing expansively and at Super Rugby level, attack generally equals success. As always it was a pleasure catching up with a few of you on Twitter, but for the newcomers, don’t forget to follow me (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and my fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of rugby.

Best Bet 1: Hurricanes -6.5 (vs Brumbies) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet (early twitter play)

Best Bet 2: Waratahs vs Highlanders – Total Points Under 46.5  @ $1.87 – Sportingbet (early twitter play)

Best Bet 3: Hurricanes/Waratahs to win @ $2.10 – Sportsbet

Hurricanes ($1.37) vs Brumbies ($3.15)

The Cake Tin in Wellington will be buzzing on Saturday afternoon when the Hurricanes welcome the Brumbies to town for what is setup to be a classic semi-final bout. As minor premiers, the Hurricanes earned the week off, whereas the Brumbies were made to travel to Cape Town to secure the only remaining semi-final spot and they did so in emphatic style. By chance these teams didn’t clash in the regular season, however, the Brumbies currently hold a four-match win-streak over the Hurricanes, including the last two in Wellington.

Hurricanes Team:

Reggie Goodes, Dane Coles, Ben Franks, Jeremy Thrush, James Broadhurst, Brad Shields, Ardie Savea, Victor Vito, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Julian Savea, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith (Captain), Nehe Milner Skudder, James Marshall

Reserves: Brayden Mitchell, Chris Eves, Jeffrey Toomaga-Allen, Mark Abbott, Blade Thomson, Chris Smylie, Rey Lee-Lo, Matt Proctor

Brumbies Team:

Scott Sio, Stephen Moore (Captain), Ben Alexander, Blake Enever, Rory Arnold, Scott Fardy, David Pocock, Ita Vaea, Nic White, Christian Lealifano, Joe Tomane, Matt Toomua, Tevita Kuridrani, Lausii Taliauli, Jesse Mogg

Reserves: Josh Mann-Rea, Alan Alaalatoa, Ruan Smith, Jordan Smiler, Jarrad Butler, Michael Dowsett, Nigel Ah Wong, Robbie Coleman

Prediction:

There aren’t many superlatives left for me to use for the Hurricanes after they capped off their regular season with a strong win over the Chiefs, despite resting three of their stars, two weeks ago. As minor premiers, they were 13 points clear of their nearest rival, have the best attack in the league, the second best defense (to the Brumbies) and scored some of the competitions best tries this season. The next two weeks aren’t going to be a walk in the park, but they have clearly showed this season they have what it takes to be worthy champions. Coach Chris Boyd has been the unsung hero for the team and deserves high praise and this week he has named one of his strongest starting 15’s of the season. The tight five have been solid at the set pieces with Shields, Savea and Vito a powerful and balanced back row combination. TJ Perenara has been the Hurricanes top try scorer this year at halfback and Beauden Barrett returns after having one his best seasons ever in the number ten jersey. Ma’a Nonu has also taken his game to another level in 2015 and his combination with the stalwart Conrad Smith needs little mention. With Julian ‘the bus’ Savea and Nehe Milner-Skudder on the wings and the steady James Marshall at fullback, the Hurricanes have a very complete starting team, not to mention some great impact off the bench should they require it.

Looking at the Brumbies, they have been solid under the guidance of Coach Stephen Larkham. Their season had some peaks and troughs, but last weekend’s victory over the Stormers in Cape Town was easily their best performance of the year. They have a strong pack that likes to maul, holds their own in scrums and have lineout decision-makers that can make it very difficult for their opposition on their throw. Scott Fardy probably doesn’t get enough credit for his work around the pitch, but he complements fellow back rower David Pocock perfectly and they could continue their combination into the national ranks later on in the season. This is a game where David Pocock will look to impose himself so Shield, Savea and Vito will no doubt be gunning for him and keeping a close eye on him throughout the match. The Brumbies backs are electric, but the absence of the suspended winger Henry Speight this week, robs the fans of a huge wing battle between Speight and Savea. Joe Tomane’s hattrick last weekend surely put him into contention for another Wallabies start and Matt Toomua will be better off for the time played after spending a number of weeks on the sidelines. I haven’t been completely convinced with Jesse Mogg this season and he will need to make sure his general kicking is spot-on or the Brumbies will be in a lot of trouble.

Although the Hurricanes haven’t beaten the Brumbies since 2011, the belief that they have within their playing squad is evident every time they run out onto the field. They have some of the best attacking threats in the world, coupled with players who don’t mind rolling their sleeves up. The week off would’ve helped any little niggles settle and the ‘Canes would’ve spent a lot of time reviewing the dynamic nature of the Brumbies play. The Brumbies have had to travel almost 30,000 kilometres over the past 10 days and with a couple of players under injury clouds, coupled with the fact that history is well and truly against them, I can see the Brumbies hanging in for the first half of the match, before the Hurricanes hit top gear and run away with it in the second half to win by double digits.

Predicted result: Hurricanes to win @ $1.37 – Sportingbet

Best Bet 1: Hurricanes -6.5 (vs Brumbies) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet (early twitter play)

Waratahs ($1.55) vs Highlanders ($2.51)

Allianz Stadium will be packed to capacity on Saturday evening as the Waratahs and the Highlanders do battle in a Trans-Tasman semi-final in Sydney. The Waratahs will be hoping to make their fourth Super Rugby Final in franchise history, whereas the Highlanders will be looking to make their second final and first since 1999, a year they duly lost to the Crusaders. The Waratahs will be fresh heading into this matchup after having last week off, whereas some might say that the Highlanders will be battle-hardened after a tense duel that saw them eclipse the Chiefs 24 – 14 in a classic match under the roof in Dunedin. The Highlanders will head into this matchup full of confidence, not only because they have won four of their last five matches, but they also beat the Waratahs in Dunedin earlier this year, 26 – 19, a match that saw each of the dangerous Highlanders outside backs score tries.

Waratahs Team:

Benn Robinson, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Sekope Kepu, Will Skelton, David Dennis (captain), Jacques Potgieter, Michael Hooper, Wycliff Palu, Nick Phipps, Bernard Foley, Rob Horne, Matt Carraro, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Taqele Naiyaravoro, Israel Folau

Replacements: Tolu Latu, Jeremy Tilse, Paddy Ryan, Dean Mumm, Mitchell Chapman, Stephen Hoiles, Brendan McKibbin, Peter Betham

Highlanders Team:

Brendon Edmonds, Liam Coltman, Josh Hohneck, Alex Ainley, Mark Reddish, Elliott Dixon, James Lentjes, Nasi Manu (Captain), Aaron Smith, Lima Sopoaga, Patrick Osborne, Richard Buckman, Malakai Fekitoa, Waisake Naholo, Ben Smith

Reserves: Ash Dixon, Dan Lienert-Brown, Ross Geldenhuys, Joe Wheeler, Gareth Evans, Fumiaki Tanaka, Trent Renata, Shaun Treeby

Prediction:

The Waratahs haven’t had the success and played with the fluidity like they did in their Championship winning year of 2014, however, they appear to have timed their run to the final to perfection. In Michael Cheika’s third season in charge, he has created a culture that has been missing for a number of years. There is a steely determination to do well and the Waratahs are only one game away from challenging for back-to-back premierships. The Waratahs possess a Test match pack and with the national coach looking on in a pressure game, I expect the ‘Tahs to front up. Traditionally the Waratahs like to play a varied game, but I can see them trying to hammer the Highlanders up the middle this week with the likes of Jacques Potgieter, Michael Hooper and Will Skelton leading the charge. In terms of total carries, the Waratahs occupy the top three positions (Israel Folau, Kurtley Beale and Bernard Foley), however, none of them have really troubled the try-scoring table this season. The Waratahs will also be without Beale this weekend as he has failed to recover from a leg injury, so expect Israel Folau and Adam Ashley-Cooper to get more involved. It is a big blow losing Beale who is an extra playmaker, but Matt Carraro is still a solid player who can get through a mountain of work in defense.

The Highlanders are one game away from their second final in franchise history, a feat that very few would’ve predicted after the issues in Dunedin only a couple of seasons ago. They say championship teams usually possess at least 3 players who are the best in their position in the competition and one would argue that halfback Aaron Smith, winger Waisake Naholo and fullback Ben Smith are currently right up there. In Waisake Naholo, the Highlanders have an All Black in waiting and the tournament’s top try scorer. You can’t overlook Malakai Fekitoa either who holds his own in the midfield and provides his outside backs with plenty of opportunities. Looking at the forwards, they have been consistent all season, however, the loss of openside flanker Dan Pryor is a blow to the visitors. The Highlanders will need to be aware that the Waratahs have been one of the strongest first quarter teams this season, averaging 14 points, but they have the ability to maintain the intensity in terms of scoring, across all four quarters. Conversely, the Highlanders have tended to start slowly, but build into the match and finish strongly, usually capitalising on lazy defence through the outside channels.

These type of matches are won up front and I have no doubt that you are probably over me doubting the Highlanders pack, given that they continue to perform well above their fighting weight. If the Highlanders can gain parity with the Waratahs pack, you would back them to outscore the Waratahs through their devastating backs, however, I just can’t see that happening this weekend. If you can see this happening, definitely take the +5.0 that is on offer for the visitors. There is potential that this could be the last game for a number of Waratahs legends including Wycliff Palu, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Sekope Kepu and more recently Jacques “Jackpot’ Potgieter, however, I believe there is enough class across the park and in the required departments for them play out their final Super Rugby matches in the Grand Final next weekend.

Predicted result: Waratahs to win by less than 7 @ $1.55  – Sportsbet

Best Bet 2: Waratahs vs Highlanders – Total Points Under 46.5  @ $1.87 – Sportingbet (early twitter play)

Reasoning: Although the ‘Overs’ has gone over four of the last six times between these two teams in Sydney, one mustn’t forget that this is a semi-final match. These games are known for tightening up and the three points is almost always taken over a kick to the line or a quick tap. There are a lot of attacking threats across the park, but I feel that they cancel each other out fairly well. The Waratahs will be searching for the upper hand in the forward exchanges and if the Highlanders don’t have front foot ball, they will find it hard to dominate in the backline. Both teams have a lot to play for with All Blacks and Wallabies positions on the line and with this type of intensity they are expected to play at, it will be more of a Test match than your traditional Super Rugby fixture and as a result, I can’t see it being a classic try-fest.