Super Rugby 2015 – Finals Week 1 Preview

After 120 matches of exhilarating and high-tempo Super Rugby action, we have reached the playoff stages with only six teams remaining. So far this season, fans have been treated to 610 tries (average of 5.05 per match) and a total of 5045 points (average of 42.04 per match), which has seen some stalwarts shine and a number of new talents unearthed. The table-topping Hurricanes and the fast-finishing Waratahs have earned the week off, along with home semi-finals next week, whereas the Highlanders will host the first qualifying match against the two-time Champions, the Chiefs and the Stormers return to Cape Town knowing that they have already beaten the Brumbies this season. Similarly to last year, in total, there are three New Zealand teams, two Australians and one South African team, but don’t look into this too much as a form guide for The Rugby Championship or the Rugby World Cup later this year. It certainly does paint a good picture for provincial rugby in New Zealand and Australian rugby is also on the rise after a few disappointing seasons. The South African teams have once again been substandard, but the Stormers will be doing their utmost to fly the South African flag proudly at the business end of the season.

Round 18 saw all three of my best bets cash for a nice profit and I am now ready to hit the playoffs with some extra money in the kitty following the last few weeks with 8 best bets cashing in a row. Semi-final rugby aligns itself much more with Test rugby as opposed to what we have seen before, especially given the need to just win and not worry about securing bonus points. In saying that, there are a number of quality players on show and the attacking teams have been rewarded more so than the defensive teams at this stage of the season in recent years. As always it was a pleasure catching up with a few of you on Twitter, but for the newcomers, don’t forget to follow me (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and my fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of rugby.

Best Bet 1: Chiefs +3.5 (vs Highlanders) @ $1.92 – Sportingbet (early twitter play)

Highlanders ($1.53) vs Chiefs ($2.55)

A sold-out Forsyth-Barr Stadium in Dunedin will be the playoff venue for this do-or-die matchup between two of New Zealand’s strongest provinces, the Highlanders and the Chiefs. The Highlanders wrapped up their regular season with a commanding 44 – 7 victory over the hapless Blues last weekend in Auckland, whereas the Chiefs will be heading into this matchup with a little less momentum having gone down to the minor premiers, the Hurricanes by eight points in New Plymouth. The home team will be confident heading into this matchup having won both games played this season by margins of 3 points and 27 points respectively, however, that game saw the Chiefs without a number of their stars.

Highlanders Team:

Brendon Edmonds, Liam Coltman, Josh Hohneck, Alex Ainley, Mark Reddish, Elliott Dixon, Dan Pryor, Nasi Manu (Captain), Aaron Smith, Lima Sopoaga, Patrick Osborne, Richard Buckman, Malakai Fekitoa, Waisake Naholo, Ben Smith

Reserves: Ash Dixon, Dan Lienert-Brown, Ross Geldenhuys, Joe Latta, Gareth Evans, Fumiaki Tanaka, Marty Banks, Shaun Treeby

Chiefs Team:

Pauliasi Manu, Hika Elliot, Ben Tameifuna, Matt Symons, Brodie Retallick, Michael Fitzgerald, Sam Cane, Liam Messam (Captain), Brad Weber, Andrew Horrell, James Lowe, Sonny Bill-Williams, Tim Nanai-Williams, Bryce Heem, Damien McKenzie

Reserves: Quentin McDonald, Siate Tokolahi, Jamie Mackintosh, Mitchell Crosswell, Michael Leitch, Kayne Hammington, Marty McKenzie, Seta Tamanivalu

Prediction:

The Highlanders have earned the right to host their first playoff game in 16 years by playing a consistent brand of attacking rugby. In a remarkable change of circumstances, only two seasons ago (2013), the Highlanders finished the season languishing in 14th place only one position above the Southern Kings. It would be fair to say that coach Jamie Joseph and his team have done an excellent job in terms of recruitment, development and results in recent times. I’ve said it week after week, but the Highlanders forward pack has punched well above their weight, which has allowed their world-class backline to shine and exploit opposition defensive systems. The inclusions of Nasi Manu in the pack and Malakai Fekitoa in the backs, two extremely influential players for the Highlanders, will no doubt give the local fans even more confidence heading into this matchup. It would be fair to say that the five losses the Highlanders have suffered this year, they have come up against better packs (Crusaders, Hurricanes x2, Brumbies and the Lions). This is clearly an area that the Chiefs will be looking to target.

Looking at the Chiefs, they haven’t had the most fluent of seasons, but they have still done enough to get themselves into a position of winning their third Super Rugby title in four years. The front row is strong with the Englishman Matt Symons and the reigning player of the year, Brodie Retallick supporting them from the second row. Japanese player Michael Leitch has been solid at number eight this season, however, coach Dave Rennie has opted for a bigger back row shifting Liam Messam to number eight, with Michael Fitzgerald selected a blindside flanker. The loss of All Black halfback Augustine Pulu for the season to broken arm hurts the Chiefs somewhat, but Brad Weber has been in strong form this season and is certainly a player to watch in the coming seasons. Charlie Ngatai also misses this match, but that allows the double-barrels of Sonny Bill-Williams and Tim Nanai-Williams to reunite in the centres. Although they aren’t as equipped as the Highlanders outside backs, James Lowe, Bryce Heem and Damien McKenzie will no doubt look to enforce themselves on the game. I would also say that the Chiefs bench stacks up well against the home team this weekend.

The Highlanders have won six of their eight home matches this season, whereas the Chiefs have a 50% win record on the road in 2015. If the Highlanders do end up getting the chocolates in Dunedin, it will be the first time in Super Rugby history that a team has been beaten by another, three times in one season. They will certainly head into the match with confidence with the two victories over the Chiefs so far this season, but the Chiefs are very familiar with finals football and I expect them to galvanize and dominate up front with Messam and Cane to set the tempo. Strap yourselves in, it is going to be one hell of a match and one in which I think the Chiefs will earn a narrow win under the roof in Dunedin.

Predicted result: Chiefs to win by the finest of margins @ $2.55 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 1: Chiefs +3.5 (vs Highlanders) @ $1.92 – Sportingbet (early twitter play)

Stormers ($1.48) vs Brumbies ($2.60)

South Africa’s Super Rugby hopes now rest on the Stormers as they host the ACT Brumbies in the second qualifying final on Saturday night in Cape Town. The home team qualified by default given SANZAR’s rules that one team from each conference needs feature in the finals series and as a result, they rested their whole team last week and paid for it in a 22 point loss to the Sharks. The Brumbies also tasted defeat last weekend against a clinical Crusaders outfit in Canberra and also picked up a few niggling injuries in the process. Both of these teams met each other in round 13, when the Stormers narrowly edged the Brumbies on the back of a Christian Leali’ifano missed conversion on the full-time siren.

Stormers Team:

Steven Kitshoff, Bongi Mbonambi, Frans Malherbe, Eben Etzebeth, Manuel Carizza, Schalk Burger, Siya Kolisi, Nizaam Carr, Nic Groom, Demetri Catrakilis, Dillyn Leyds, Damien de Allende, Juan de Jong, Seabelo Senatla, Cheslin Kolbe

Reserves: Scarra Ntubeni, Alistair Vermaak, Vincent Koch, Jean Kleyn, Michael Rhodes, Louis Schreuder, Kurt Coleman, Jaco Taute

Brumbies Team:

Scott Sio, Stephen Moore (Captain), Ben Alexander, Blake Enever, Rory Arnold, Scott Fardy, David Pocock, Ita Vaea, Nic White, Christian Lealifano, Joe Tomane, Robbie Coleman, Tevita Kuridrani, Henry Speight, Jesse Mogg

Reserves: Josh Mann-Rea, Alan Alaalatoa, Ruan Smith, Jordan Smiler, Jarrad Butler, Michael Dowsett, Matt Toomua, James Dargaville

Prediction:

Newlands has been a daunting venue for teams to visit this year with only one team (Chiefs) managing to score an away victory in Cape Town. Looking at the Brumbies, they have had a mixed bag this season on the road with a 50% success rate from eight matches, but they came oh so close against the Stormers only six week ago. It is a well known fact that the Brumbies rely heavily on their rolling maul, an area that World Rugby has asked the referees to police better from here on in. Six of their last eight tries have been scored through rolling mauls with David Pocock collecting two hat tricks as the pilot of these legalised obstructions. Pocock has evidently lifted the Brumbies since his return from injury and the Stormers will need to negate his impact at the breakdown or things could get ugly. Nic White does a good job of putting the ball in front of his forwards and his decision making of when to let his backs loose has been solid throughout the season. If Kuridrani, Tomane or Speight get any space in this match, the Stormers scramble defense will have to be on point as the Brumbies have the size advantage. One area the Brumbies do need to improve is their discipline as they are one of the most heavily penalised teams in the competition. Furthermore, Demetri Catrakilis is one of the most accurate kickers in the competition, kicking 27 in a row earlier this season, so he could punish them.

Looking at the Stormers, they will be playing test match rugby this weekend, which focuses on winning the set piece, dominating the aerial battle, controlling proceedings with a strong kicking game and converting pressure into points. The fact that they have scored the third fewest tries of any team in this competition, probably emphasises that they have used these tactics for most of the season, but what is interesting is that when they have been forced to attack, they have looked very dangerous. The loss of skipper Duane Vermuelen to a neck injury is a huge blow for the home side as his presence on both attack and defense is unmatched. The halves pairing of Nic Groom and Demetri Catrakilis probably haven’t played with this amount of pressure on them before and the visitors have the edge in this department. With 21 Internationals on the field this weekend, expect it to be a colossal battle, but the Brumbies have enough class in their ranks to put the only remaining South African team left out of their misery in front of what will be a disappointed Newlands crowd for the first time since 2010.

Predicted result: Brumbies to edge it @ $2.60  – Sportingbet