The last week of the Rugby World Cup round-robin stage awaits us with only a few matches left to decide the final quarterfinal picture. In the last week, we have seen hosts England kicked out of the Cup, Australia’s stocks rise, South Africa dominate and now we await some key battles to determine the final eight. Overnight, the All Blacks will play Tonga, Saturday’s action sees a big matchup between Samoa and Scotland, Australia clash with Wales at Twickenham for Pool A honours, before France and Ireland wrap things up on Sunday night.
Front a betting standpoint, we are holding our heads just above the water at the moment, but with a few future plays likely to cash, it looks like being a good tournament. The Rugby World Cup is once again living up to all expectations and as the pressure gauge increases, expect to see some more entertaining rugby and thrilling finishes. Follow me on twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating round of action in England.
Best Bet 1: New Zealand -18.5 (vs Tonga) First Half Handicap @ $1.93 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: New Zealand -21.5 (vs Tonga) Second Half Handicap @ $1.95 Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Australia -7.5 (vs Wales) @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Part 2 of the preview including Saturday’s action will be released on Friday night or Saturday morning (Australian time)
New Zealand ($1.01) vs Tonga ($29.00)
Kick-off: Saturday – 05:00am (AEDT)
New Zealand and Tonga will face off for both of their final respective Pool C matches at the iconic St James Park stadium in New Castle on Friday night. The All Blacks have been far from convincing in their three victories to date over Argentina (26 – 16), Namibia (58 – 14) and Georgia (43 – 10), but they still remain undefeated and look set to top their Pool. Tonga will be looking to secure their second win of the competition having beaten Namibia (35 – 21), before dropping matches to Georgia (10 – 17) and Argentina (16 – 45). Three of the four matches played between these two nations have been contested at Rugby World Cups, with the opening match of the New Zealand event seeing the All Blacks cruise to a 41 – 10 victory.
New Zealand Team:
Tony Woodcock, Dane Coles, Owen Franks, Luke Romano, Sam Whitelock, Jerome Kaino, Sam Cane, Kieran Read, Aaron Smith, Dan Carter, Waisake Naholo, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Ben Smith
Reserves: Kevin Mealamu, Wyatt Crockett, Ben Franks, Brodie Retallick, Liam Messam, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Beauden Barrett, Sonny Bill Williams
Tonga Team:
Soane Tonga’uiha, Elvis Taione, Halani Aulika, Tukulua Lokotui, Joseph Tuineau, Sione Kalamafoni, Nili Latu (captain), Viliami Ma’afu, Sonatane Takulua, Kurt Morath, Fetu’u Vainikolo, Latiume Fosita, Siale Piutau, Telusa Veainu, Vungakoto Lilo
Reserves: Paula Ngauamo, Sona Taumalolo, Sila Puafisi, Steve Mafi, J Ram, Samisoni Fisilau, Viliami Tahitua, Will Helu
Prediction:
The battle between two of the Oceania regions most physical teams will be a must watch on early Saturday morning (Australian time). It has been well documented that the All Blacks are have been trying new things in their first few matches and they have looked very patchy in doing so. They have mixed and matches their team, but three wins from three matches is what they would’ve set out to achieve, especially after a tough opening encounter against Argentina in week one. Richie McCaw will sit this match out with a slight injury which sees Sam Cane given another opportunity at openside flanker. Inside centre Ma’a Nonu will become the sixth All Black to reach 100 caps and what a way to do it at a Rugby World Cup. His game has improved remarkably over the years and he has done both a lot for New Zealand and World Rugby in general. I expect him to have a big game.
Looking at Tonga, coach Mana Otai has made just the one change to his team that were thrashed 45 – 16 by Argentina last weekend. Latiume Fosita who plies his trade for Northland in the ITM Cup in New Zealand replaces Sione Piukala at inside centre. Otai has stuck mainly to the same core group of players for all matches at this tournament, so he will need them firing if they are to cause the All Blacks any real problems. Theoretically, Tonga are still in with a chance to progress to the quarterfinals, as they need to beat New Zealand and hope Namibia beat Argentina, however, they would need a rugby miracle.
It’s little brother (Tonga) versus big brother (New Zealand) in Newcastle overnight. One match out from the knockout stages, you would expect the All Blacks to be much more clinical and not overdo the 50/50 passes, and if they do, at least hold onto them. I think Tonga will put up a strong fight, but New Zealand need to start answering some questions and play the game they have played over the last four years. I think the All Blacks will win and win well in Newcastle, which will no doubt put other teams, notably France and Ireland on notice ahead of the quarterfinals.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win by their biggest margin yet @ $1.01 – Bet365
Best Bet 1: New Zealand -18.5 (vs Tonga) First Half Handicap @ $1.93 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: New Zealand -21.5 (vs Tonga) Second Half Handicap @ $1.95 Sportsbet
Samoa ($5.00) vs Scotland ($1.22)
Kick-off: Saturday – 11:30pm (AEDT)
Samoa will play their last game of the 2015 Rugby World Cup when they face Scotland at St James Park in Newcastle on Saturday night (Australian time). After beating the USA (25 – 16) in week one, Samoa have lost to both South Africa (6 – 46) and Japan (5 – 26) in recent weeks. On the other hand, Scotland convincingly defeated Japan (45 – 10) and USA (39 – 16), before being dismantled by a very physical South African outfit. Scotland currently lead the 10-match battle 8-1-1, however, the last match did see Samoa earn their only victory against Scotland in South Africa in 2013.
Samoa Team:
Zak Taulafo, Ma’atulimanu Leiataua, Census Johnston, Filo Paulo, Kane Thompson, Maurie Fa’asavalu, Jack Lam, Alafoti Faosiliva, Kahn Fotuali’I (captain), Tusi Pisi, Fa’atoina Autagavaia, Rey Lee-Lo, George Pisi, Paul Perez, Tim Nanai-Williams
Reserves: Motu Matu’u, Viliame Afatia, Anthony Perenise, Faifili Levave, Vavae Tuilagi, Vavao Afemai, Patrick Faapale, Ken Pisi
Scotland Team:
Alasdair Dickinson, Ross Ford, WP Nel, Richie Gray, Johnny Gray, Ryan Wilson, John Hardie, Dave Denton, Greg Laidlaw, Finn Russell, Sean Maitland, Matt Scott, Mark Bennett, Tommy Seymour, Stuart Hogg
Reserves: Fraser Brown, Gordon Reid, Jon Welsh, Tim Swinson, Josh Strauss, Henry Pyrgos, Peter Horne, Sean Lamont
Prediction:
Scotland need to win this matchup to ensure they make the quarterfinals, which will be a match against either Wales or Australia. Despite having an ordinary year where they finished as wooden-spooners in the RBS 6 Nations, Scotland has been building nicely in this tournament. At the end of the day, they weren’t any match for the South Africans, but they’ll at least have the blue print to beat Samoa, as the Springboks did two weeks ago. Samoa has been ordinary in this campaign, both weak on defense (conceding an average of 29 points per game) and poor in attack (scoring an average of 12 points per game. Scotland’s numbers are healthier conceding 20 and scoring an average of 33. Samoa’s skipper Ofisa Treviranus has been dropped for this match, which is a strange decision, but they do have the size to cause Scotland problems.
Under the guidance of Vern Cotter, Scotland look to be a lot more efficient and I think they will break Samoa down fairly comfortably in Newcastle. I
expect Manu Samoa to put in a more spirited performance in their final Rugby World Cup fixture and score a few more points than they have been, but Scotland should have all of the South Sea Islanders bases covered en route to a victory.
Predicted result: Scotland to win @ $1.22 – Bet365
Australia ($1.36) vs Wales ($3.50)
Kick-off: Sunday – 01:45 (AEDT)
Australia and Wales will clash at Twickenham in London on Saturday night in a match that will decide the ‘Pool of Death’ winner. Australia have had a strong start to the tournament with wins over Fiji (28 – 13), Uruguay (65 – 3) and last weekend against England (33 – 13). Wales are also undefeated having beaten Uruguay (54 – 9), England (28 – 25) and Fiji (23 – 13). The most startling of stats between these two nations is that Australia is on a 10-game win streak over the last 7 years.
Australia Team:
Scott Sio, Stephen Moore, Sekope Kepu, Kane Douglas, Dean Mumm, Scott Fardy, Sean McMahon, David Pocock, Will Genia, Bernard Foley, Drew Mitchell, Matt Giteau, Tevita Kuridrani, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Israel Folau
Reserves: Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Slipper, Greg Holmes, Rob Simmons, Ben McCalman, Nick Phipps, Matt Toomua, Kurtley Beale
Wales Team:
Paul James, Scott Baldwin, Samson Lee, Luke Charteris, Alun Wyn-Jones, Sam Warburton (captain), Justin Tipuric, Toby Faletau, Gareth Davis, Dan Biggar, Liam Williams, Jamie Roberts, George North, Alex Cuthbert, Gareth Anscombe
Reserves: Ken Owens, Aaron Jarvis, Tom Francis, Jake Ball, Ross Moriarty, Lloyd Williams, Rhys Priestland, James Hook
Prediction:
I have been really impressed by the Wallabies performances to date and coach Michael Cheika has instilled a lot of grit and belief amongst his players. His first choice team has changed very little over the first few weeks of the tournament and that is no different this week. Michael Hooper has been ruled out due to suspension but he is replaced by Sean McMahon, someone who has a big future in the Australia setup and someone who can perform a very similar role. Dean Mumm, the tournament’s top lineout stealer replaces Rob Simmons in the second row and Drew Mitchell comes in for the injured Rob Horne on the wing. The squad is settled with the pack performing admirably particularly at scrum time so far this tournament. Number eight David Pocock is playing incredibly well and is definitely a player of the tournament candidate, especially with his strong base allowing him to contest heavily at the breakdown. His running game has also improved substantially. Will Genia and Bernard Foley have orchestrated the backline around the park well and although Tevita Kuridrani and Israel Folau haven’t hit their straps yet, they are
well and truly due. The bench also packs a number of punches as has been the case for the Wallabies all season.
Warren Gatland’s Welsh squad has been decimated by injuries, but they are still able to field a solid team. No Gethin Jenkins in the front row is questionable, but Luke Charteris and Alun Wyn-Jones form an imposing second row combination. Justin Tipuric has been selected alongside Sam Warburton in the back row, which signifies that the Welsh are going to attack the Wallabies at the breakdown, much like the Aussies have done to all teams before them in England. Halfback Gareth Davies has followed in the injured Rhys Webb’s footsteps by scoring four tries so far and Dan Biggar at flyhalf will be one of Wales’ best attacking threats. The inclusion of George North at outside centre will raise some eyebrows, especially given that Alex Cuthbert, a player well and truly out of perform has been selected on the wing. Gareth Anscombe, a player that failed to take his opportunities at the Blues and the Chiefs in Super Rugby finds himself at fullback and I can see the Wallabies peppering him all night with high kicks and big bodies.
Wales know that they are already into the quarterfinals, however, both teams will know that a win here puts them onto the easier side of the draw. Meaning, they will avoid the All Blacks and the Springboks until the Final. Australia continue to grow, the squad is settled and their dominant record over Wales will be rife in the memories of the Red Dragons. The margin in recent matches has been close, but I can’t see all of the neutrals at Twickenham supporting Wales, so the ‘16th man advantage’ won’t be there in it’s entirety. It might be close early on but I expect another double digit victory for Australia en route to a quarterfinal matchup against Scotland.
Predicted result: Australia to win @ $1.36 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Australia -7.5 (vs Wales) @ $1.92 Sportsbet
