Welcome to the knockouts of the Rugby World Cup 2015. Only four teams remain in their quest to raise the William Webb Ellis trophy at Twickenham on Saturday, October 31st. Being dubbed by some as ‘The Rugby Championship World Cup’, only southern hemisphere teams remain signaling the strength of the four countries involved and the widening of the gap between them, which was thought to be much closer prior to the RWC. Last weekend we saw four classic matches, all for their own reasons and moments of controversy as well. South Africa’s bash and crash approach almost cost them a spot in the semi’s, however, they were good enough to beat Wales when the referee blew his final whistle. The All Blacks were simply sensational in their routing of France and clearly signaled their intentions loud and clear to the rest of the competition. Argentina were extremely impressive in their win over Ireland and the Wallabies left it very late to overcome a very brave Scottish outfit. This week we are presented with two matches that could well and truly go down as some of the best of all time with the All Blacks and the Springboks facing off on Saturday night and the Wallabies and the Pumas locking horns on Sunday.

Front a betting standpoint, the quarterfinals was our best round yet with the drop goal market paying dividends as well as an anytime try-scorer option ($5.50). Another Futures play (all southern-hemisphere final) has come off as well at odds of $4.33. This weekend, I have a number of tips, all of which I am confident in, however, semi-finals of Rugby World Cup’s are tense affairs and anything can happen on the day. Follow me on twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed as we near the end of the tournament in England.
New Zealand vs South Africa:

Best Bet 1: New Zealand -7.5 (vs South Africa) @ $1.81 – Luxbet
Best Bet 2: South Africa to get a Yellow Card @ $2.25 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Total Successful Drop Goals – Over 0.5 @ $4.33 – Bet365 (early twitter play)
Best Bet 4: Australia -5.5 (vs Argentina) @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 5: Will there be a drop goal – Yes @ $3.03 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 6: Australia to score a try in both halves @ $1.91 – Sportsbet

Semi-Final 1: New Zealand ($1.26) vs South Africa ($4.00)

Kick-off: Sunday – 01:00am (AEDT)

New Zealand and South Africa will renew their rich rivalry at the home of world rugby, Twickenham on Saturday night in the first of the semi-final matchups. New Zealand remain undefeated in this tournament having coasted through their pool, albeit somewhat unconvincing at times. However, when it mattered most, the All Blacks clicked into fifth gear and demolished France 62 – 13 at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff – a record quarterfinal victory margin. South Africa did things a lot tougher and needed a piece of brilliance from Duane Vermuelen and Fourie du Preez to book a place in this match having beaten Wales 23-19. The recent history doesn’t make for pretty reading with the All Blacks winning 10 of the last 12 matches dating back to 2010, including a 27-20 victory at Ellis Park in July.

South Africa Team: 

Tendai Mtawarira, Bismarck du Plessis, Frans Malherbe, Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager, Francois Louw, Schalk Burger, Duane Vermuelen, Fourie du Preez (captain), Handre Pollard, Bryan Habana, Damien de Allende, Jesse Kriel, JP Pietersen, Willie le Roux

Reserves: Adriaan Strauss, Trevor Nyakane, Jannie du Plessis, Victor Matfield, Willem Alberts, Ruan Pienaar, Pat Lambie, Jan Serfontein

New Zealand Team: 

Joe Moody, Dane Coles, Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Aaron Smith, Dan Carter, Julian Savea, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Ben Smith

Reserves: Kevin Mealamu, Ben Franks, Charlie Faumauina, Victor Vito, Sam Cane, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Beauden Barrett, Sonny Bill Williams

Prediction: 

Some are billing this match as ‘David vs Goliath’ and when you look at the recent history between the two teams and the current world rankings, you might agree. However, these two nations have extremely proud histories and a rivalry that is almost unmatched in the game. There is a huge amount of respect between both the players and the coaches alike, but both teams will be looking for blood on Saturday night. The All Blacks put together a great display of rugby last weekend against France, whereas the Boks really had to dig deep to beat Wales. The question is, can the All Blacks play that well again and/or can the Springboks improve to compete against the world’s best team?
Looking at the Springbok line-up announced by the boisterous Heyneke Meyer, there is only one change to the match day 23 with Victor Matfield replacing Peter Steph du Toit on the bench. The front row of Tendai ‘the Beast’ Mtwawira, Bismarck du Plessis and Frans Malherbe are solid up front. Locks Eben Etzebeth and Lood de Jager have been two of the best in the competition and the Springboks will need every ounce of their grunt on Saturday night. François Louw, Schalk Burger and Duane Vermuelen are a rangy and balanced back row and one that will be thoroughly tested by their All Black counterparts. In the halves, Fourie du Preez has been playing extremely will with Handre Pollard as have the young centre combination of Damien de Allende and Jesse Kriel. Bryan Habana and JP Pietersen on the wings are experienced and in good form, with Willie le Roux, someone who needs a big game, selected at fullback. The Springboks have decided to tackle the All Blacks bench by naming an extremely experienced set of reserves. Adriaan Strauss, Trevor Nyakane and Jannie du Plessis will be called upon in the second half as front row replacements. Lineout ace Victor Matfield returns from a hamstring injury on the bench alongside the ‘bone collector’, Willem Alberts. Ruan Pienaar a player who hasn’t found his best form this year is the reserve scrum half, with Pat Lambie and Jan Serfontein rounding out the match day 23.
All Blacks coach Steve Hansen has made one change to his starting lineup with Joe Moody coming into the starting team at loosehead prop for the injured Wyatt Crocket. The elusive and try-scoring threat Dane Coles and Owen franks complete the front row. The reigning Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock feature in a strong second row with Jerome Kaino, Captain Richie McCaw and Kieran Read rounding out the pack. Richie McCaw has been victorious against the Springboks on 19 occasions and sets a RWC record in captaining his side for the 12th time in the competition. Aaron Smith is the world’s best scrumhalf and Dan Carter has done everything in the game and their partnership will be crucial to the outcome of the match. Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith extend their centre combination record and will look to use that experience against the green centres they come up against. Julian ‘the Bus’ Savea is the tournament’s leading try-scorer with eight and has been selected on the left wing. Nehe Milner-Skudder will be in the All Blacks setup for many years to come and Ben Smith is a complete rugby player at fullback. On the bench, Ben Franks comes into the team, alongside Kevin Mealamu and Charlie Faumauina as the front row reserves. Hansen continues to experiment with Victor Vito as a second row option to allow Sam Cane a spot on the bench as well. Tawera Kerr-Barlow might not get a lot of game time this weekend, but I expect both Beauden Barrett and Sonny-Bill Williams to feature heavily in the second half.
The media create an aura or a sense of invincibility around the All Blacks and some buy into it and some don’t. From their last 52 Test matches, the All Blacks have been victorious in 47 of them. They have won three out of the last four Rugby Championship titles and they haven’t lost the Bledisloe Cup for 13 years. There is no doubt that this is the best Test team there has ever been. However, they are beatable and the Springboks are one of the teams to have beaten them in recent years. New Zealand ‘only’ have a win ratio of 59% against the Springboks over their 90 meetings to date, which is much lower in comparison to other nations. The Springboks will need to play on the edge of the law on Saturday night if they are to rattle the All Blacks. They need to surprise the team that put together a near-perfect performance against the French last week, but most importantly hold their discipline. They need to dominate the set piece, slow the ball down at the breakdown and not let the All Blacks backline get into any rhythm.
Knock-out rugby has a way of creating spectacles and it is the team that handles the pressure and the conditions the best that wins. I firmly believe that if the Springboks are in the lead heading into the final 20 minutes, they will give themselves a good shot at advancing. If they let the All Blacks get out to a lead, it could get embarrassingly ugly for the men in green. South Africa enjoy the underdog tags and to be fair the All Blacks enjoy being known as the favourites. For me, this is going to go down as one of the classics and a match that is worthy of a Rugby World Cup Final in itself. Weather forecasts suggest that there is a 70% chance of rain at 5PM (kick-off time), which may tighten things up. In saying that, it is hard to ignore the class and upward trajectory of the All Blacks and I do think they’ll beat a gutsy Springbok outfit by around ten points.

Predicted result: New Zealand to win @ $1.26 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 1: New Zealand -7.5 (vs South Africa) @ $1.81 – Luxbet

Best Bet 2: South Africa to get a Yellow Card @ $2.25 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 3: Total Successful Drop Goals – Over 0.5 @ $4.33 – Bet365 (early twitter play)

Semi-Final 2: Australia ($1.40) vs Argentina ($3.25)

Kick-off: Monday – 02:00am (AEDT)

Australia and Argentina will clash in the second semi-final at Twickenham in London on Sunday night in what should be a fascinating match. The Wallabies hit a speed bump last weekend when they were awarded a dubious penalty to give them a narrow 35-34 win over Scotland. It came after they were so impressive in the ‘Pool of Death’. On the other hand, Argentina were extremely impressive in their routing of an injury-ravaged Irish side winning 43-20 at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff. Dating back to 2000, Australia has won 10 of the last 11 matches against Argentina, including a 34-9 win over the Pumas in Mendoza in July.

Australia Team: 

James Slipper, Stephen Moore, Sekope Kepu, Kane Douglas, Rob Simmons, Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper, David Pocock, Will Genia, Bernard Foley, Drew Mitchell, Matt Giteau, Tevita Kuridrani, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Israel Folau

Reserves: Tatafu Polota-Nau, Toby Smith, Greg Holmes, Dean Mumm, Sean McMahon, Nick Phipps, Matt Toomua, Kurtley Beale

Argentina Team:

Marcos Ayerza, Agustin Creevy, Ramiro Herrera, Guido Petti, Tomas Lavanini, Pablo Matera, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, Leonardo Senatore, Martin Landajo, Nicolas Sanchez, Juan Imhoff, Juan Martin Hernandez, Marcello Bosch, Santiago Cordero, Joaquin Tuculet

Reserves: Julian Montoya, Lucas Noguera Paz, Juan Figallo, Matias Alemanno, Facundo Isa, Tomas Cubelli, Jeronimo de la Fuente, Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino

Prediction: 

Rugby fans are in for a mouth-watering clash on Sunday night when the Wallabies and the Pumas face-off. Both teams have played exceptional rugby for the majority of this tournament, playing similar styles of running rugby. They have both taken their opportunities extremely well, so it will be a good gauge to see where both teams really are at. Weather forecasts are predicting good weather for the match so the stage is set for a classic encounter.
Wallabies coach Michael Cheika has been forced into making just the one change for this clash. Loosehead prop Scott Sio was given until the captain’s run to prove his fitness, however, his elbow just simply wasn’t ready for a battle of this magnitude. There will be doubt as to how bad Pocock’s calf is and how bad Folau’s ankle complain is, but having been selected, you would expect them to be fully fit. The front row consists of James Slipper, captain Stephen Moore and Sekope Kepu, a player who has really developed his running game this season. Reds locks Rob Simmons and the impressive Kane Douglas will be the second row pairing, with Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper and David Pocock set to contest the breakdowns from the back row. Will Genia has been a solid option at nine this tournament and Bernard ‘the ice man’ Foley has performed when it has mattered most and thus made the number ten jersey his own. Matt Giteau and Tevita Kuridrani continue to develop as a centre pairing and Drew Mitchell and Adam Ashley-Cooper have delivered exactly what is required from International wingers. Israel Folau at fullback will have a big role to play, particularly in defense given the nifty outside backs that Argentina possess and the high ball given Argentina’s bombing tactics to date. On the bench, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Greg Holmes and Toby Smith will provide front row cover with Dean Mumm and Sean McMahon rounding out the forward reserves. Nick Phipps’ form has been questionable lately and he will be expected to lift the intensity when he comes on, alongside Matt Toomua and Kurtley Beale.
Argentinian coach Daniel Hourcade has done an excellent job in developing his squad, especially after an average start when he first took over. They have come within a few plays of beating the All Blacks and the Wallabies, they have beaten the Springboks and they are ready to show the world that they will be a force to be reckoned with for a number of years to come. Many speak about the Argentinian scrum, however, it hasn’t performed at the high level we are used to this tournament. Herrera, captain Creevy and Ayerza are all very good players and with youngsters Petti and Lavanini behind them in the second row, they will be hard to move off their own ball. Martin Landajo and Nicholas Sanchez have run the Pumas ship admirably so far and Hernandez and the recalled Marcello Bosch add real starch and playmaking ability in the centres. The latter also has a big boot and can kick penalty goals from inside his own half. The outside backs of Imhoff, Cordero and Tuculet have a lot of X-Factor and the Pumas will be relying on some magic from them.
The Wallabies have progressed through this tournament in a way that has instilled a lot of belief amongst the team and their fans. Their scrum was huge against England and scrum coach Mario Ledesma got a lot of praise for that. Against Wales, their defence was outstanding and Nathan Grey was the man who was accredited for that work. Against Scotland, the Wallabies managed to score five good tries and Stephen Larkham was the architect behind that. However, they haven’t managed to put all of these together and it needs to come this weekend against an Argentinian team who is brimming with confidence and have nothing to lose.
The neutrals in the crowd will be going for Argentina, I have no doubt about that. The Wallabies have been on this stage before, whereas a number of the young Argentinian players like the locks (Petti and Lavanini) and the outside backs (Imhoff, Cordero, Tuculet) haven’t. The injury sustained to Scott Sio is a blow to the scrum, but James Slipper is a capable replacement. The Wallabies will be hoping that Pocock and Folau’s injuries don’t flare up during the match, but one area that Australian rugby has improved over the last two seasons is its depth Matches are won in the forwards, at the breakdown and off the boot, three areas in which the Pumas are very strong. In saying that, I think the upsets are over at this Rugby World Cup and I expect the Wallabies to make their first Final since 2003.

Predicted result: Australia to win by 10 points @ $1.40 – Bet365

Best Bet 4: Australia -5.5 (vs Argentina) @ $1.92 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 5: Will there be a drop goal – Yes @ $3.03 – Sportsbet 

Best Bet 6: Australia to score a try in both halves @ $1.91 – Sportsbet