We have now reached the quarterfinal stage with eight teams remaining in the quest to get their hands on the William Webb Ellis trophy. Hosts England are the big omissions from the pool stage, but after the way they played, they don’t really deserve to be there. The southern hemisphere teams are looking the goods, especially when you look at France’s form and Ireland’s latest injury toll. This weekend we have four cracking matches ahead of us, however, I only see one of them really capable of causing an ‘upset’. On Saturday, South Africa and Wales face off at Twickenham and New Zealand and France renew their Rugby World Cup rivalry. Sunday’s action sees Ireland and Argentina go head-to-head in Cardiff and Australia continue their pursuit of glory with Scotland standing in their way in London.

Front a betting standpoint, week four was profitable, especially with the futures play of Australia to win their pool cashing. This weekend, I have a number of tips, all of which I am confident in. The Rugby World Cup is about to turn up the physicality, intensity and we will start to see which teams can handle the pressure of knockout rugby. Follow me on twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating round of action in England.

Best Bet 1: South Africa -8.5 (vs Wales) @ $1.90 – Luxbet (LOSS)
Best Bet 2: New Zealand -5.5 (vs France) First Half Handicap @ $1.87 – Sportsbet (WIN)
Best Bet 3: New Zealand -12.5 (France) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (WIN)
Best Bet 4: Argentina +4.5 (vs Ireland) @ $1.92 Sportsbet
Best Bet 5: Argentina to win (vs Ireland) @ $2.60 Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 6: Australia -6.5 (vs Scotland) 1st Half Handicap @ $1.84 Sportsbet
Best Bet 7: Michael Hooper – Anytime Try scorer (vs Scotland) @ $5.50 – Sportsbet

Quarterfinal 1: South Africa ($1.33) vs Wales ($4.00)

Kick-off: Sunday – 01:00am (AEDT)

South Africa and Wales will contest the first quarterfinal of the 2015 Rugby World Cup at Twickenham in London on Saturday night. The Springboks qualified as Pool B winners with wins over Samoa (46 – 6), Scotland (34 – 16) and the USA (64 – 0), despite losing their opening match to Japan (32 – 34). Wales have dropped just the one match so far as well, losing to Australia (6 – 15) after beating Uruguay (54 – 9), England (28 – 25) and Fiji (23 – 13). The last time these two faced each other was in November 2014, a match that Wales won, although South Africa weren’t allowed to field any of their overseas based players due to the Test match falling outside the International Test match window.

South Africa Team: 

Tendai Mtawarira, Bismarck du Plessis, Frans Malherbe, Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager, Francois Louw, Schalk Burger, Duane Vermuelen, Fourie du Preez (captain), Handre Pollard, Bryan Habana, Damien de Allende, Jesse Kriel, JP Pietersen, Willie le Roux

Reserves: Adriaan Strauss, Trevor Nyakane, Jannie du Plessis, Pieter Steph du Toit, Willem Alberts, Ruan Pienaar, Pat Lambie, Jan Serfontein

Wales Team:

Gethin Jenkins, Scott Baldwin, Samson Lee, Luke Charteris, Alun Wyn-Jones, Dan Lydiate, Sam Warburton (captain), Toby Faletau, Gareth Davis, Dan Biggar, George North, Jamie Roberts, Tyler Morgan, Alex Cuthbert, Gareth Anscombe

Reserves: Ken Owens, Paul James, Tom Francis, Bradley Davies, Justin Tipuric, Lloyd Williams, Rhys Priestland, James Hook

Prediction: 

The first quarterfinal is really going to set the tone for the remaining matches in terms of physicality. The Springboks come into this match having played three do-or-die matches in a row and they have responded brilliantly after their opening round match to Japan. It is no surprise that they utilise their set piece at scrum time and through lineouts and in particular rolling mauls. They have made 536 carries so far in the tournament with 256 of those crossing the gain line (48%). This allows them to get on the front foot and puts pressure on the opposition defence. Locks Lood de Jager and Eben Etzebeth and Schalk Burger have been front and centre of the Springboks charge to date and their ball carrying abilities have allowed Fourie du Preez and Handre Pollard to make good decisions when marshalling the troops around. Bryan Habana has scored 5 tries and is the current joint top try-scorer in the competition with JP Pietersen crossing the chalk on four occasions. Their biggest weakness so far is that they are the most penalised team of the remaining quarterfinalists. This will be an area of concern for coach Heyneke Meyer, especially given that Welsh flyhalf Dan Biggar has been the most accurate goal kicker to date.
Wales have been decimated by injuries both before the RWC started and throughout the campaign. However, to their credit they have still managed to topple England and put in a gallant performance against Australia last weekend. Coached by Warren Gatland, they are very good defenders and use the rush tactic to pressure their opposition. This force’s their opponents to think quickly which has often seen some of them come undone. Despite their defensive strengths, they have been quite poor offensively. They have only scored 11 tries so far with eight of those coming against Uruguay. They only managed to score one try against England and Australia combined in 160 minutes of rugby. This is due to the fact that most of their injuries have occurred in the backline and new combinations haven’t had a chance to gel. They have won more lineouts than any other team (60), however, they haven’t been effective in converting that territory and possession.
Before last November’s defeat, South Africa were on a 16-game win streak against Wales dating back to 1999, when Wales opened the ‘Millennium Stadium’. I wouldn’t read too much into that loss given that the Springboks were short of about 8 of their overseas-based players. Wales have effectively played ‘two finals’ in the last two weeks against England and Australia and although they might put up a brave fight in the first half, I get the feeling that if South Africa sticks to their structures and get over the gain line, it could be a long evening for Wales.

Predicted result: South Africa to win by double-digits @ $1.33 – Bet365

Best Bet 1: South Africa -8.5 (vs Wales) @ $1.90 – Luxbet

Quarterfinal 2: New Zealand ($1.18) vs France ($5.50)

Kick-off: Sunday – 05:00am (AEDT)

New Zealand and France will renew their rich Rugby World Cup rivalry at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff on Saturday night in Quarterfinal #2. New Zealand made their way to the top of Pool C with unconvincing wins over Argentina (26 – 16), Namibia (58 – 14), Georgia (43 – 10) and Tonga (47 – 9). France have found themselves in the precarious position of facing the world’s number one team as a result of losing to Ireland (9 – 24), having won their previous three matches against Italy (32 – 10), Romania (38 – 11) Canada (41 – 18). The All Blacks are currently on an eight game win streak over the French dating back to 2009, but it is during Rugby World Cup knockout matches where the French have a promising record, winning 2 from 4.

New Zealand Team: 

Wyatt Crockett, Dane Coles, Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Aaron Smith, Dan Carter, Waisake Naholo, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Ben Smith

Reserves: Kevin Mealamu, Joe Moody, Ben Franks, Victor Vito, Sam Cane, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Beauden Barrett, Sonny Bill Williams

France Team:

Eddy Ben Arous, Guilhem Guirado, Rabah Slimani, Pascal Pape, Yoann Maestri, Thierry Dusautoir (captain), Bernard le Roux, Louis Picamoles, Morgan Parra, Frederic Michalak, Brice Dulin, Wesley Fofana, Alexandre Dumoulin, Noa Nakaitaci, Scott Spedding

Reserves: Dmitri Szarzewski, Vincent Debaty, Nicolas Mas, Damien Chouly, Yannick Nyanga, Rory Kockott, Remi Tales, Mathieu Bastereaud

Prediction: 

The second quarterfinal between the All Blacks and Les Bleus is going to make for fascinating viewing. As the world’s best team, the All Blacks have coasted through the pool stages and almost gone under the radar with some underwhelming performances. The thing with the All Blacks is that sometimes they need to face good opposition to bring the best out of them. Their tight five is strong with players like Dane Coles and Brodie Retallick, two of the best in their position in the game. Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw and Kieran Read are all exceptional players who can play both a defensive and expansive game when required. Aaron Smith has been the best halfback in the world for a number of seasons and Dan Carter at ten has and always will be a class act. Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith are the world record holders for the longest centre partnership and the outside backs speak for themselves. Julian Savea is the current joint top try-scorer in the competition with five, Nehe Milner-Skudder has had a breakthrough season with the Hurricanes and the AB’s and Ben Smith is as safe as a house at the back.
It is well documented that France are the most unpredictable team in world rugby. They can play some exceptional rugby, but then follow that up with schoolboy errors. They have one of the best scrums in the competition and they have solid players in all of the key positions. Occasionally, they opt to engage in dirty tactics, most notably lock and ex-captain Pascal Pape. Thierry Dusautoir, the French captain, is proving to be a menace on the floor stealing eight balls at ruck time so far. He is one of the biggest engines in the tournament and is a fearless warrior across the park. It is a big game for Frederic Michalak at flyhalf and although I don’t rate him highly, there have been some glimpses of him being in his best form over the last few matches. Wesley Fofana is a class inside centre as he is a good runner and excellent distributor. Mathieu Bastereaud has been dropped for this match for Alexandre Dumoulin and I think France will miss the former’s power game. The outside backs are an area of weakness I believe, especially without Yoann Huget, but they still can score from virtually anywhere on their day. Fullback Scott Spedding also has a huge boot and is someone who can kick penalty goals from inside his own half.
France were comprehensively beaten in every aspect of their match against Ireland. Their lineout was awry, their scrum was faulty and their defence broke down once Ireland started putting pressure on them. New Zealand have had to make fewer tackles than any other team in the final eight and if the French don’t turn up and challenge them, they could get dusted. There is a misconception that the French have the wood on New Zealand, especially given that the AB’s have won the last eight matches played between the teams. At the Rugby World Cup in 1999 and in France in 2007, Les Bleus did the unthinkable and sent the All Blacks home early to stun the rugby world. Are they capable of doing it again? Sure, almost any team in the top tier of world rugby can beat the other on their day, but their recent performances haven’t instilled any confidence in that outcome. New Zealand will be seeking revenge for that 2007 outcome and for me, the money has to be on them to win and win fairly comfortably.

Predicted result: New Zealand to win @ $1.18 – Bet365

Best Bet 2: New Zealand -5.5 (vs France) First Half Handicap @ $1.87 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 3: New Zealand -12.5 (France) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet

Quarterfinal 3: Ireland ($1.53) vs Argentina ($2.55)

Kick-off: Sunday – 10:00pm (AEDT)

The third Quarterfinal will take place at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff on Sunday night when Ireland will face Argentina. Ireland topped Pool D having beaten Canada (50 – 7), Romania (44 – 10), Italy (16 – 9) and France (24 – 9). Argentina played well against the All Blacks, however, they fell short (16 – 36) before going onto to comprehensively beat Georgia (54 – 9), Tonga (45 – 16) and Namibia (64 – 19). Ireland and Argentina have played each other on 15 occasions with Ireland winning two-thirds of those matches including the last five dating back to 2008 by an average margin of almost 15 points.

Ireland Team: 

Cian Healy, Rory Best, Mike Ross, Devin Toner, Iain Henderson, Jordi Murphy, Chris Henry, Jamie Heaslip, Conor Murray, Ian Madigan, Dave Kearney, Robbie Henshaw, Keith Earls, Tommy Bowe, Rob Kearney

Reserves: Richardt Strauss, Jack McGrath, Nathan White, Donnacha Ryan, Rhys Ruddock, Eoin Reddan, Paddy Jackson, Luke Fitzgerald

Argentina Team:

Marcos Ayerza, Agustin Creevy, Ramiro Herrera, Guido Petti, Tomas Lavanini, Pablo Matera, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, Leonardo Senatore, Martin Landajo, Nicolas Sanchez, Juan Imhoff, Juan Martin Hernandez, Matias Moroni, Santiago Cordero, Joaquin Tuculet

Reserves: Julian Montoya, Lucas Noguera, Juan Pablo Orlandi, Matias Alemanno, Facundo Isa, Tomas Cubelli, Jeronimo de la Fuente, Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino

Prediction: 

For me this is the hardest of the four quarterfinals to pick. Ireland come into this match on the back of a great win over France, however, they have lost captain Paul O’Connell and back rower Peter O’Mahony for the tournament. They have also lost Sean O’Brien for this match due to suspension and now Jonny Sexton due to injury, four of Ireland’s best players are out. They are very well coached, but I get the feeling that those injuries are really going to hurt them as they are the heart and soul of their team. It was a very physical game against France and they did incredibly well to grind them down and secure a strong victory. This week, a lot of the load needs to be shouldered by prop Cian Healy, locks Devin Toner and Iain Henderson and halfbacks Connor Murray and Ian Madigan. If these players can all have solid games, it will put them in a good positon to advance to the semi-finals for the first time in their history. Ireland have made more lineout steals than any other team (10) in the competition and they have also made 39 more carries than any other team (593), which tells me their ball retention is strong.
Looking at Argentina’s tournament so far, they were very unlucky to lose to New Zealand in week one and have played some great footy since then. Their pack is known for their scrummaging and in Augustin Creevy, you have one of the tournament’s best captains and best hookers. The back row has also been strong with the likes of Pablo Matera, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe and Leonardo Senatore working tirelessly around the field on attack and in defense. I am surprised to see Tomas Cubelli on the bench as the little halfback has had a great tournament and has done well to create space for Nicolas Sanchez outside him. It will be interesting to see if Martin Landajo can offer the same service. The suspension to Marcello Bosch will hurt the Pumas, but as a result of playing in the Rugby Championship the past few seasons, they have been able to unearth a lot of new talent. Juan Imhoff, Santiago Cordero and Jacquin Tuculet are three outstanding rugby players and look for them to light up the Millennium Stadium if they get some space. Argentina have made more metres than any other team in this competition (2687), which signifies that the width that they like to play with. Argentina have also made the most offloads (50), whereas, Ireland generally look to go to go to ground with only 17 to their name.
Ireland and France have had some classic Rugby World Cup battles over the years. In 1999, Argentina surprised everyone when they beat Ireland 28 – 24. The rematch four years later in Australia saw Ireland win 16 – 15. Four years later in France Argentina won 30 – 15. This will no doubt be the next chapter in what is a great Rugby World Cup rivalry.
I have watched the line drop this week and in hindsight it has probably been an error. I really do think that Argentinian rugby has come on in leaps and bounds over the past couple of seasons. They beat the Springboks in Durban this year which is no mean feat. Argentina have learned to play an expansive game and its been a joy to watch their development. Ireland have also been impressive over the past two seasons winning the RBS 6 Nations Championship two times in a row. They are still able to field a strong team on paper, but I just feel as if the Irish belief has been dented and I think the Pumas can get up and cause the one upset that I believe remains in the tournament.

Predicted result: Argentina to win @ $2.55 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 4: Argentina +4.5 (vs Ireland) @ $1.92 Sportsbet 

Best Bet 5: Argentina to win (vs Ireland) @ $2.60 Sportsbet (early twitter play)

Quarterfinal 4: Australia ($1.08) vs Scotland ($8.20)

Kick-off: Monday – 01:00am (AEDT)

The final semi-final spot will be decided at the home of World Rugby, Twickenham, on Sunday evening when Australia face Scotland. Australia have been building nicely throughout the tournament with wins over Fiji (38 – 13), Uruguay (65 – 3), England (33 – 13) and Wales (15 – 6). Scotland has also played some good rugby in Pool B beating Japan (45 – 10), USA (39 – 16), losing to South Africa (16 – 34) before wrapping things up with a narrow 36 – 33 win over Samoa last weekend. Australia have won 8 of the last 10 matches between these two proud rugby nations, including the most recent victory (21 – 15) at Murrayfield which took place in 2013.

Australia Team: 

Scott Sio, Stephen Moore, Sekope Kepu, Kane Douglas, Dean Mumm, Scott Fardy, Sean McMahon, Ben McCalman, Will Genia, Bernard Foley, Drew Mitchell, Matt Giteau, Tevita Kuridrani, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Kurtley Beale

Reserves: Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Slipper, Greg Holmes, Rob Simmons, Sean McMahon, Nick Phipps, Matt Toomua, Quade Cooper

Scotland Team:

Alasdair Dickinson, Fraser Brown, WP Nel, Tim Swinson, Richie Gray, Blair Cowan, John Hardie, Dave Denton, Greig Laidlaw, Finn Russell, Tommy Seymour, Peter Horne, Mark Bennett, Sean Maitland, Stuart Hogg

Reserves: Kevin Bryce, Gordon Reid, Jon Welsh, Alasdair Strokosch, Josh Strauss, Henry Pyrgos, Richie Vernon, Sean Lamont

Prediction: 

Australia head into this matchup brimming with confidence as a result of winning their Pool. They had two good victories over England and Wales, one in which their attack was dominant and one in which their defence stood the all important test. Their once considered weak tight five have improved considerably as you saw when they pushed both England and Wales off their ball at scrum time. Dean Mumm has stolen four opposition lineouts this tournament, one more than Kieran Read (New Zealand), Geoff Parling (England) and Peter O’Mahony (Ireland). Their back row has been one of the standout trios in the competition with Scott Fardy the unsung hero. Michael Hooper returns from suspension and David Pocock is cementing himself as the pilfering king with ten so far in this tournament, two ahead of France’s Thierry Dusautoir. The backline has always had the talent, they just haven’t had the forwards to get them the front-foot ball required to cause inroads. Now that they do, we are finally seeing what the Wallabies can do. Will Genia seems to be the first choice halfback and rightly so, I just wish he would distribute quicker from the base rather than taking a step. Bernard Foley has made the Wallaby number ten jersey his own in the UK with a number of standout performances. Matt Giteau’s return has paid huge dividends and his partnership with Kuridrani is working well. Drew Mitchell, Adam Ashley-Cooper and Israel Folau are three very efficient players and players that could well dominate this fixture.
Scotland were elated last week when they came away with a narrow victory over Samoa. It was a tough, hard match that they really needed heading into this fixture. They have not featured in a semi-final since 1991 and they will be doing their utmost to get their once again. The loss of Ross Ford and Jonny Gray during the week to suspension has really robbed the forward pack of some of their grunt and this is an area that the Wallabies will target. Of all the teams remaining, Scotland has the worst lineout defense, so look for Australia to attack them. Additionally, Australia’s lineout defence is rated second best so this could be a problem area for the Scots. The heart and soul of the team is captain Greig Laidlaw. He has scored the most points so far in this tournament with 60 followed closely by Bernard Foley with 58. Scotland don’t necessarily have a backline that is going to send shivers down the spines of the Wallabies and one would get the impression that if they are going to win, it will be by a narrow margin and by penalty goals and a drop goal perhaps. This is back up by the fact that Scotland have kicked more penalties than any other team in the tournament (14) and they have the worst gain line success at just 36%.
Scotland are going to have to defend for their lives at Twickenham on Sunday night. They have made more tackles than anyone else in the competition averaging 146 per match. However, Australia have the edge at the set piece, the edge at the breakdown and the edge in the backline, so there is only one way I can see this match going. A strong victory for the Wallabies and one that will once again reaffirm rugby fans that they are serious contenders for this year’s title.

Predicted result: Australia to win @ $1.08 – William Hill

Best Bet 6: Australia -6.5 (vs Scotland) 1st Half Handicap @ $1.84 Sportsbet

Best Bet 7: Michael Hooper – Anytime Try scorer (vs Scotland) @ $5.50 – Sportsbet