The 2013 International rugby season will come to a close this weekend with Wales hosting Australia in Cardiff and Twickenham will see running rugby at its best when the Barbarians face the flying Fijians. Last weekend, the Springbok brick wall in defence was too sturdy for the French to cause them any problems, while in Dublin, the Irish raced out to a lead before the All Blacks eclipsed them at the death, thanks to a late try by Ryan Crotty and an Aaron Cruden conversion from the sideline. It signed off a perfect season for the All Blacks, the first in the professional era and all credit to them; they are truly one of the best teams of all time. This will be my last write up of the year, however, I will hopefully be back in the new year with the RBS 6 Nations and Super Rugby. Additionally, I will continue to post plays on Twitter as the northern hemisphere season continues. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat. Good luck!
Best Bet 1: Barbarians -35.0 (vs Fiji) @ $1.90 – Bet365
Best Bet 2: Australia to win (vs Wales) @ $2.10 – Betfair
Best Bet 3: Australia Total Points – Over 20.5 (vs Wales) @ $1.90 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 4: Leigh Halfpenny Over 12.5 Points (vs Australia) @ $1.95 – Sportingbet
Value Bet: Israel Folau to score a try @ $3.10 – Sportsbet
Barbarians ($1.03) versus Fiji ($19.50)
Twickenham in London will see it’s final International fixture of 2013 when the invitational Barbarians host the flying Fijians on Saturday evening.
Barbarians
The Barbarians concept was born in 1890 when William Percy Carpmael helped form a club that believed that ‘rugby should be an attacking game and that the Barbarians must exhibit a style which demonstrated a commitment to hard, clean attacking rugby’. This has continued in over 100 years of clashes with other invitational and International teams of the highest calibre, often against New Zealand, England, South Africa and Australia. Like the coach, the players are selected on merit and X-factor and have featured some of the biggest names in world rugby including Jonah Lomu, Christian Cullen, David Campese and Richie McCaw just to name a few. The ‘Baa-baas’ as they are also known also scored arguably the greatest try ever when Gareth Edwards crossed the chalk after some scintillating counter-attacking rugby against the All Blacks in 1973.
New Zealand Coach Steve Hansen, who has lost just one match in two seasons with the All Blacks has selected a team comprising of eight All Blacks, eight Springboks, five Argentinians one Irish and one Samoan.
The front row is powerful with Tendai ‘Beast’ Mtawarira packing down next to Springbok teammate Bismarck du Plessis and Argentinian prop Matias Diaz, who has also just signed on to play for the Highlanders in Super Rugby next year. Retired Irishman Mick O’Driscoll is joined by towering lock Dominic Bird in the second row and the back row sees the return of Schalk Burger, who has been out of action for almost two years line up alongside Steven Luatua and the barnstorming number eight, Duane Vermuelen. Traditionally, the Barbarians field at least one-uncapped International player, so Hurricanes halfback TJ Perenara will line up alongside Springbok utility back Patrick Lambie in the halves. Springbok and Barbarian Captain Jean de Villiers has been playing exceptional rugby this year and he plays inside of Samoan centre Gavin Williams. The outside back combination features Charles Piutau and Frank Halai, two wingers who will play many more test matches for the All Blacks and Argentinian Santiago Cordero at fullback. On a side note, you will notice that the Barbarians will wear their club socks as a representation of where they have come on in leaps and bounds from.
Fiji
I mentioned last week that Fijian rugby generally peaks every four years at the Rugby World Cup and then due to a number of reasons including financial and contractual obligations, they often fail to field their full strength line-ups each week. Once again and rather unfortunately, Fiji have selected a ‘weakened’ side in comparison to the squads that have featured throughout their November campaign, as this match falls outside of the International Test Match window. Coach Inoke Male has lost the services of Napolioni Nalaga, Timoci Nagusa, Wame Lewaravu, Dominiko Waqaniburotu, Sisa Koyamaibole, Malakai Bakaniceva and Nemani Nadolo, all of whom are big names and key figures in their squad. As a result, Fiji have assembled a makeshift line up that I cannot see troubling the Barbarians in the slightest, however, as you would expect with all Fijian teams, their game plan will be to utilise their big ball runners and shift the ball wide to spread out their opposition’s defence. Rugby Sevens is Fiji’s national sport, so it is only fitting that they get to come up against a team that will play with a similar mindset, which in turn should see a number of tries scored and entertainment of the highest standard.
Prediction
This is a matchup that will no doubt feature some exceptional tries, bone-rattling defence and attacking rugby of the highest calibre, so it is one not to be missed. Surprisingly, the last time these two teams met was in 1970 when the Fijians ran out victors in Newcastle 29 – 9. With an understrength Fijian team selected and a Barbarians team that could mix it with any team in world rugby, I can see the Barbarians romping to victory in what has been forecasted to be good conditions. Nonetheless, it will be an enthralling encounter and one that players in both teams will be ecstatic to be involved in to close out the 2013 calendar season.
Predicted result: Barbarians to win @ $1.03 – Betfair
Best Bet 1: Barbarians -35.0 @ $1.90 – Bet365
Please note: More plays to follow once markets have been released
Wales ($2.04) versus Australia ($2.10)
The final tier-one test match of the year sees two teams struggling with injuries face off at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, when Wales host Australia. The Autumn International period hasn’t always seen Wales produce their best rugby to say the least and this season hasn’t been any different. A convincing 40 – 6 thrashing of Argentina, was sandwiched between ineffective and inefficient displays against two teams on the opposite ends of the rugby spectrum: South Africa and Tonga. Australia on the other hand, have strung together three victories in succession for the first time this year and finally appear to be reaping the rewards of Ewen McKenzie’s cleverly devised game plans. Last year in this corresponding fixture, Wales looked like they had it in the bag before a moment of Kurtley Beale (remember him) brilliance claimed victory for Australia at the death.
Wales
I often speak about the southern hemisphere’s bogey teams (New Zealand and South Africa have France and Australia with Scotland), however, the Welsh often struggle against the Wallabies as is evidenced by their overall record. Statistically, Wales have only beaten Australia two times since 1988 and are winless against the Wallabies over the past five years (eight games). Coach Warren Gatland has done an exceptional job by transforming the Dragons from once ‘easy-beats’ into the reigning two-time RBS 6 Nations Champions. However, their record against the former Tri-Nations teams is abysmal and this is something that is starting to tarnish their proud recent history and is certainly is the ‘elephant in the room’. If they are to turn their recent fortunes around, they will need to be physical, clinical and play with the amount of passion their fans portray week-in and week-out. A lot will come down to Welsh and Lions fullback Leigh Halfpenny who has also received his first nomination for the IRB Player of the Year award, something well deserved after a solid season for club, country and the British & Irish Lions. His goal kicking accuracy is often the difference between teams, however, against a Wallabies outfit that is slowly rediscovering their try-scoring abilities, one gets the feeling that points off the boot might not be enough, as was the case against the Springboks.
Coach Warren Gatland has selected his squad with no less than 11 British & Irish Lions tourists on the team sheet. It is a powerful line-up that boasts a strong front row with the recent centurion Gethin Jenkins, Richard Hibbard (who is due to get some attention after some comments this week) and Rhodri Jones. The second row features Alun Wyn-Jones and Ian Evans and the back row of Lydiate, Warburton (Captain) and Faletau that made a name for themselves at the RWC in New Zealand are once again reunited. Mike Phillips, still without a club in Europe adorns the number nine jersey inside of Dan Biggar, who has been selected in place of Rhys Priestland, an area I believe the Wallabies will be sure to target. The Williams duo of Scott and Owen form the centre partnership and the addition of winger Alex Cuthbert to the line up is a massive boost for Wales and further strengths what already was a dangerous back three alongside George North and Leigh Halfpenny. The pack is rife with experience and the backline does exude ‘X Factor’, however, they will all need to improve this weekend against the sleeping giant of the Wallabies that appears to have awoken.
Australia:
2013 has been a rollercoaster ride for the Wallabies and a loss this weekend will see this season go down as their worst in history. However, it is amazing what a few good wins can do and all of a sudden their losses to the Lions, All Blacks and Springboks appear to get less airtime. After their recent successes against Ireland, Scotland and Italy, the Wallabies have overtaken England and reclaimed third spot in the IRB World Rankings behind the All Blacks and the Springboks respectively. Two names I always plug when I deconstruct the Wallabies are Michael Hooper and Israel Folau, two players that wouldn’t look out of place in a World 15 if it were to be selected. Hooper continues to cement his stranglehold on the number seven jersey, with David Pocock slowly recovering from injury and in his debut season, Israel Folau has been elevated into a position of being one of rugby’s most dangerous players. Folau has the opportunity this weekend to cap what has been a sensational 2013, by breaking Lote Tuqiri’s calendar try-scoring record, which currently stands at 10. Folau currently boasts nine tries and I wouldn’t put it past him to cross the chalk again, given his nonchalant ability to beat a player one-on-one. Will Genia and Quade Cooper have both had their best outings over the last few weeks, however, one must commend the Wallabies forward pack for giving them the front-foot ball they so desire and something that has been non-existent for most of the year. Players like James Slipper, Stephen Moore and Rob Simmons have been the cornerstones of the pack and taken a lot of pressure off James Horwill, who in my opinion is lucky to be picked in the side. Captain Ben Mowen has been exceptional all season and the way he plays the game embodies what the Wallabies are all about.
Coach Ewen McKenzie has made three changes to the starting line up by bringing back the ‘ill-disciplined’ Adam Ashley-Cooper to outside centre, Nick Cummins, who has had great November series is back on the wing and Christian Leali’ifano shifts to inside centre. For the third week in succession and something of a rarity in Wallaby rugby these days, McKenzie has named an unchanged forward pack. The combinations are beginning to gel and the set piece continues to improve after it’s shambolic nature in The Rugby Championship. A lot of seat shuffling has taken place on the bench which features a four-three split including knockout king Tatafu Polota-Nau, Benn ‘Piggy’ Robinson, Ben ‘can’t scrum’ Alexander, Kane Douglas and Dave Dennis. The backs component of the pine comprises of Nic White, Mike Harris and Bernard Foley, three players I wouldn’t personally want to have to bring o chase down a lead. However, with Quade Cooper in the team, he has shown that anything is possible and he will run out for his 50th appearance at the Millennium Stadium on Saturday. Much like the Wallabies, he has had a stop-start last 24-months, however it appears that he has sorted out his off-field issues and this is paying huge dividends on the pitch, not only for him but for the Wallabies as well.
Prediction
In what will be a fiery and physical encounter in Cardiff, these two nations have a rich and tightly contested recent history. Both teams want to finish the calendar year off on a high and the match this weekend has additional implications given both teams will set out to inflict a psychological blow on their opposition as they have both been grouped together in Pool A during the 2015 Rugby World Cup. Both teams match up very well and the key clashes will be between the forwards, and Lions sharpshooter Leigh Halfpenny and Australia’s tri-code convert Israel Folau. Both players have match-winning abilities and are two of the finest exponents of taking the highball in world rugby. Both teams have the luxury of recalling key figures this week, however, the Wallabies are on a roll and I can see them just pipping the Welsh a thrilling affair to bring the curtain down on what has been a hugely engaging and highly entertaining 2013.
Predicted result: Australia to win @ $2.10 – Betfair
Best Bet 2: Australia to win (vs Wales) @ $2.10 – Betfair
Best Bet 3: Australia Total Points – Over 20.5 (vs Wales) @ $1.90 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 4: Leigh Halfpenny Over 12.5 Points (vs Australia) @ $1.95 – Sportingbe
Value Bet: Israel Folau to score a try @ $3.10 – Sportsbet
