The final weekend of the International Test match rugby calendar is upon us with Wales hosting South Africa and England will welcome the old enemy, Australia. Recapping last week’s main card, the Springboks had to rely on their bench to secure a reasonably comfortable victory over Italy, Ireland edged Australia in one of the matches of the year and the All Blacks scored three tries in the final ten minutes to deny Wales their first win over them in 61 years. As a result, the IRB world rankings have the All Blacks on top, followed by South Africa, Ireland, England and Australia in fifth place, which matches their lowest position since the rankings were introduced in 2003. From a betting standpoint, one out of four results doesn’t make for pretty reading, however, the margins justified that I was on the right track. This is the last preview that I will be writing this year, but I am hoping to be back for the RBS 6 Nations and Super Rugby next year, before tackling the showpiece that is the Rugby World Cup in England next year. I appreciate the support and tweets that I receive and wish you all the best for the festive season ahead.
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Best Bet 1: Wales +6.5 (vs South Africa) @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Team B 1st Half Points (South Africa) Over 12.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Total Points – Over 42.5 (England vs Australia) @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: Time of First Try – Up to and including minute 19 (England vs Australia) @ $1.85 – Sportsbet
Wales ($2.85) vs South Africa ($1.44)
The Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, one of the most prestigious grounds in world rugby hosts an important clash this weekend between Wales and South Africa. The Welsh have really stumbled in 2014 having only won four of their 10 fixtures and with losses already this series to both the All Blacks and the Wallabies, things are looking shaky ahead of the Rugby World Cup next year. On the other hand, the Springboks have continued to improve and secured a confidence-boosting win over the All Blacks, but they will be out to prove that their loss to Ireland two weeks ago was only a blip on the radar. Historically, the Welsh have had a disastrous record against the Springboks, with only one win from the 29 matches played, with that win coming in 1999 when the Millennium Stadium was launched. The Springboks won this corresponding fixture last year 24 – 15, as well as winning both matches played in the Republic this year.
Wales
Despite possessing a solid forward pack, a massive backline and a team with vast experience, Wales have failed to live up to their potential over the past twelve months. One reputable rugby journalist this week suggested that matches should be cut short 15 minutes, which really highlights Wales’ inability to close out matches from strong positions. Warren Gatland has achieved so much in his coaching career in Wales, however, his record against the southern hemisphere superpowers leaves little to be desired. The Welsh will be looking to dominate the Springboks up front and control the breakdown, which will allow their stalwarts to target what is a reasonably inexperienced South African back three. Gatland has made three enforced changes to the team that will face the Boks this weekend. Two of those changes come in the front row with Gethin Jenkins returning at loosehead prop and Scott Baldwin replaces Richard Hibbard at hooker. The other changes see George North’s wing spot taken by Scarlets fullback Liam Williams. It is a very strong Welsh side and one that can certainly get the job done this weekend, but history is certainly against them.
South Africa
The match this weekend in Cardiff will determine the success of not only the Autumn International tour, but also the Springboks season in general. Despite having a huge injury toll, the Springboks machine has continued to role on and it took a very good Irish team to put them away a few weeks ago. A loss this weekend would be seen as a huge disappointment by the media in South Africa given what they have already achieved, but the Springboks will have to do without a number of their European based players as the match falls outside of the International Test match window. Coach Heyneke Meyer has made five changes to his line-up this week, three of those which are forced. In the front row, Trevor Nyakane has been relegated to the bench in favour of crowd favourite Tendai Mtawarira and after a rather subdued tour, Bismarck du Plessis comes into the starting line up with Adrian Strauss shifting back to the bench. All of the inside backs are the same as the team that faced Italy last week, but with JP Pietersen, Bryan Habana and Johan Goosen back at their clubs, Sharks winger Lwazi Mvovo, Cornal Hendricks and Willie le Roux have been recalled. Once again the Springboks bench packs a lot of punch with the likes of Adriaan Strauss, Nizaam Carr, Handre Pollard and Stormers breakthrough player Damien de Allende included.
Prediction
Despite the record books very much stating that there can only be one winner this weekend, I wouldn’t be so sure of it. Wales will be hurting and a win against one of the southern hemisphere powerhouses would be monumental, whereas the Springboks have reached the final hurdle of the season and are short of some of their European-based players. In saying that, the Springboks know how to win and that is something that Wales seem to have forgotten. I do think the Springboks have enough in the tank to steer this match to a narrow victory, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Springboks had to chase the lead at some point in the second half.
Predicted result: South Africa to win @ $1.44 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 1: Wales +6.5 (vs South Africa) @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Team B 1st Half Points (South Africa) Over 12.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
England ($1.59) vs Australia ($2.40)
Twickenham has seen a number of enthralling contests over the years and this weekend will be no exception as England host one of their oldest foes, the Wallabies. The hosts snapped a dismal six match losing streak last weekend when they outclassed Samoa at the same venue and much like Wales they really need this win to finish the calendar year off with some momentum heading into next year’s RBS 6 Nations. Australia will be out to avenge their loss to England last year in this corresponding fixture and they too really want the win having lost to both France and Ireland over the past two weekends to take pressure off themselves and to subdue the fairly trigger-happy Australian media.
England
Like Wales, England rugby is at a crossroads at the moment with so much expected of them and so much promise, they simply haven’t produced the results. In saying that, they haven’t been far off the mark, but there are a number of areas that they will need to fine-tune ahead of their World Cup next year. Stuart Lancaster has picked an excellent pack despite the injury worries he has had to contend with. Joe Marler, Dylan Hartley and Dave Wilson have been solid this autumn, with Dave Atwood and Courtney Lawes coming under fire from New Zealand and South Africa’s great lock pairings. Ben Morgan has been great off the bench at number eight and I am glad to see him given a start, as Billy Vunipola hasn’t been able to match some of his club form on the international stage. Ben Youngs has a great record against Australia and has been preferred to Danny Care, with George Ford given the nod over Owen Farrell who has really lost his way this series. The selection of Billy Twelvetrees and Brad Barritt in the centres won’t instil a lot of confidence in England fans and Anthony Watson is also unproven as a winger at this level. Mike Brown continues at fullback, with Jonny May selected on the wing. Jonny May’s pace was once again invaluable for England as he diced through the Samoan defense, so the Wallaby wingers will need to keep a close eye on him as he roams around the field.
Australia
I can’t stress the importance of this match for this Australian team. The way they have played the game since Michael Cheika took over has been brilliant to watch, but at the same time, they have leaked a lot of points and wins are what they are all measured on. They are playing a very expansive game and their forwards haven’t received the mauling that some may have thought, but with the Rugby World Cup in England only a year away, there are still a number of areas in which the Wallabies need to improve. In saying that, a no one will want to play Australia next year given their proven ability to perform at World Cups. Once loss to either Wales or England in the pool stages could spell disaster for the Wallabies, but without getting to far ahead of ourselves, let’s have a look at the team that Michael Cheika has named for their final match of the year. In the forward pack, youngster Sean McMahon returns at Luke Jones’ expense at blindside flanker and Rob Simmons will become the sixth Australian this year to reach 50 caps for his country. The absence of outside centre Tevita Kuridrani through an ankle injury is a massive blow for the Wallabies with the Brumbies centre’s power, pace and speed combination adding another dimension to the Wallabies backline. Although his replacement Adam Ashley-Cooper is a great player, he relies more on running angles and using his fend as opposed to the brute force that Kuridrani possesses. As a result of Ashley-Cooper moving in one place, Rob Horne finds himself on the wing and I have never really been convinced with the Waratahs utility back. He is a safe player, but not someone that can break a game open, but I am happy to be proved wrong. At the time of writing, the bench hasn’t been named, but I expect the likes of Will Genia and Quade Cooper to get more game time this week as their general fitness increases.
Prediction
All 80,000-plus fans will be going off at Rugby HQ will be going off on Saturday evening when the mother country faces the ‘convicts’ in a dress rehearsal of the vital Pool A match at the IRB Rugby World Cup 2015 in England. It will be a good gauge of where both of these teams are at, especially in comparison to the teams they have faced in recent weeks. Both England and Australia have dropped down the IRB rankings this year and it will be evident that players on both teams will be looking to cement their places in next year’s Rugby World Cup squad. Sunny conditions will greet the players and as always, the battle between the forward packs and the contest at the breakdown will be crucial, but I think England will just scrape through in a physical, but once again high-scoring contest.
Predicted result: England to win in a hard-fought contest @ $1.59 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Total Points – Over 42.5 (England vs Australia) @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: Time of First Try – Up to and including minute 19 (England vs Australia) @ $1.85 – Sportsbet
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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