November is often the best time of the year for rugby union fans with so many international fixtures taking place and for the diehard fans, club rugby continues in the northern hemisphere. We are coming to the end of a long, but memorable season, however, this round will be the penultimate weekend of International action until the RBS 6 Nations kicks off in February. Last weekend, the Springboks returned to winning ways with an important victory over next year’s Rugby World Cup hosts, New Zealand’s second-string team stuttered to an eight point victory over an improved Scottish outfit and the Wallabies were overcome by a more hungry and clinical French outfit in Paris. New Zealand, Australia and South Africa have now played their 6 Nations counterparts 119 times since the 2007 Rugby World Cup in France, with the north only managing victory in 15 of those Test matches at a win rate of less than 13%. Three of my five best bets cashed last weekend, which led to a smaller round of profit, but a winning round nonetheless. The Wallabies clash with Ireland is my pick of the round, but I will also be keeping a close eye on proceedings in Italy, who host the Springboks and at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff where the All Blacks will go head to head with Wales. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat. Good luck!
Best Bet 1: South Africa -18.5 (vs Italy) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (E.T.P)
Best Bet 2: Time of first try – Up to and including minute 15 (South Africa vs Italy) @ $1.85 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Australia +2.0 (vs Ireland) @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: New Zealand -13.5 (vs Wales) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet (E.T.P)
E.T.P = Early twitter play
Italy ($9.00) vs South Africa ($1.07)
This weekend’s action kicks of when the Springboks put their perfect record against Italy on the line when they face each other at the Stadio Euganeo in Padua. Italy will be smarting after allowing the Argentinians to fight back and secure a two-point victory last weekend in Genova, whereas the Springboks produced a positive performance to defeat England at Rugby HQ in London. The last time these two teams met was last season in Durban, where the Springboks ran out comfortable 44 – 10 winners and it will take a brave performance by the Italians to not let this fixture blow out this weekend.
Italy
Italy’s French-born coach Jacques Brunel has been at the helm of Italian rugby since 2011, but his days might be numbered, as his record certainly doesn’t paint a pretty picture. In the last two seasons, the Azzurri have only managed four victories against France, Ireland, Samoa and Fiji, whilst being pummelled by many of the other top nations in the world. This season alone, the Italians have only managed the one win, which was against an understrength Samoan outfit two weeks ago. For much of the match against Argentina last week, Sergio Parisse and his men would’ve thought they had the match under control before Argentina surged back to secure the win. Brunel has only made the one change to the team that were defeated last week by bolstering his pack with the Fijian-born Samuela Vunisa who has been selected in the number seven jersey. Italy possesses a strong scrummaging team and are led by Sergio Parisse, one of the best number eights in world rugby. In the backline, the Kiwi-born Kelly Haimona continues his role as general in what will be his third cap and Andrea Masi is also a well-rounded player at fullback. All in all, Italy has maintained a similar squad over the past couple of seasons, however, they have failed to breakthrough and achieve the results their faithful supporters have longed for.
South Africa
The match against England was always going to be one of the Springboks most important fixtures on tour given that it could be a precursor to the showpiece event in London in a year’s time. It was a match where the Springboks went back to their structured play and dominated physically and although they lost the territory and possession battle, their scramble defense was on point and their offensive execution was a huge improvement in comparison to the match against Ireland. Before the tour began, Heyneke Meyer would’ve known that this was going to the match where he could test some of his ‘second string players’ and that he has done. Although, I believe he could’ve experimented a little further with the likes of Damien de Allende, Nizaam Carr, Jaco Kriel etc. he has still selected a very strong team. Cheetahs prop Trevor Nyakane gets his run-on debut at loosehead prop and he will join Adriaan Strauss and Coenie Oosthuizen in the front row. The other change in the forward pack sees Teboho Mohoje return to flanker with Schalk Burger getting a rest after last weekend’s man of the match performance against England. With a number of Springbok flankers on the sideline with injury, this could be Oupa’s last chance to stake a claim for a spot in next year’s squad. Cobus Reinach and Patrick Lambie had strong performances at halfback and flyhalf last week and have been rewarded with another cap against Italy. The final change in the starting 15 sees Johan Goosen replace Willie le Roux who shifts to the bench. Willie le Roux has been HUGE for the Springboks over the past two seasons and Meyer really needs to assess who is their number two fullback should something happen to Le Roux. On the bench, Lions prop Julian Redelinghuys is in line to make his debut as is the Stormers versatile back rower Nizaam Carr. With players like Bismarck du Plessis, Francois Hougaard and Handre Pollard on the bench as well, I expect things to open up in the second half.
Prediction
The history books suggest that there is only be one team capable of winning this weekend and I am not going to shy away from that. In the five matches played since 2008, South Africa has averaged 37 points to Italy’s 9. Although Heyneke Meyer has benched a couple of his stalwarts, the Springboks still look very good and will be far too strong for Italy, a team that has really struggled to improve over the past few seasons.
Predicted result: South Africa to win a comfortably @ $1.07 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 1: South Africa -18.5 (vs Italy) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Time of first try – Up to and including minute 15 (South Africa vs Italy) @ $1.85 – Sportsbet
Ireland ($1.73) vs Australia ($2.15)
Aviva Stadium will be pumping in Dublin on Saturday evening when their beloved rugby team clashes with an Australian team that is under the pump after a narrow loss to France last weekend. Ireland consolidated their win over South Africa a couple of weeks ago with a patchy, but convincing win over Georgia on Sunday, but France’s revival was too much as they avenged their three losses to Australia from earlier on this season by winning in Paris. However, Australia will take some comfort from their win here twelve months ago, but they are well aware of the challenges that the Irish possess.
Ireland
After Ireland’s victory over Georgia last week, coupled with South Africa’s win over England, the Poms have been dethroned as the northern hemisphere’s top team by Ireland. Under Joe Schmidt, Ireland has been on an impressive run winning 10 out of the 12 matches played and they will be very aware that they are coming up against an Australian team that can tear them a part if they don’t turn up to play. Joe Schmidt has recalled his big guns for this weekend’s clash, with many of them sitting out of the match last weekend against Georgia. Loosehead prop Jack McGrath is a promising youngster and he will partner Rory Best and Mike Ross in the front row. Devin Toner is a man mountain in the second row and he will pack down next to Paul O’Connell who will one day go down in Irish rugby folklore. Peter O’Mahoney is a workhorse at blindside flanker and he will be supported at the breakdown by 24 year old Rhys Ruddock and Jamie Heaslip, who has been selected as a British & Irish Lions tourist on two occasions. Connor Murray and Jonathan Sexton have cemented themselves as the Irish halves and there is a change in the centres with Jarred Payne ruled out, so the experienced Gordon D’Arcy will partner Gavin Henshaw this week. Simon Zebo, Tommy Bowe and Rob Kearney round out the starting 15 and you will find a number of up and coming future Irish stars on the bench.
Australia
Australia experienced their first loss under new coach Michael Cheika on the weekend when they went down to a very unpredictable French team. Unpredictability has always been France’s biggest asset, however, the Wallabies will be rueing some costly errors that prevented them from securing a come from behind win. The Wallabies will be stinging after that loss and things certainly won’t get any easier against the reigning RBS 6 Nations champions. The northern hemisphere conditions and style of rugby seem to have flummoxed the Wallabies once again, but I do feel that they are improving and certainly have the makings of a good side. I’m prepared to rule out last weekend’s match against the French and I will use their remaining two matches against Ireland and England as a real gauge for their chances next year.
Coach Cheika has sprung a few surprises this week by making four changes to his starting 15. The front row remains the same, however, Sam Carter has been recalled to the second row in place of James Horwill who drops to the bench. Melbourne Rebels lock Luke Jones has been given his first start for the national team at blindside flanker and he will join captain Michael Hooper and number eight Ben McCalman in the back row. Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley continue their partnership holding off Will Genia and Quade Cooper from the Queensland Reds and Matt Toomua replaces Brumbies teammate Christian Leali’ifano at inside centre. Tevita Kuridrani continues to be a beast at outside centre and they will be joined this week by Henry Speight (debut) on the left wing and incumbents Adam Ashley-Cooper and Israel Folau. On the bench, you’ll find Will Genia, Quade Cooper and Kurtley Beale, all players who could’ve claimed to be the best in the world in their respective positions at some point in their career.
Prediction
It has been hard to split these teams in recent seasons with the last six matches leading to three Australia wins, two Irish wins and a draw. Ireland set out to beat one of the Southern Hemisphere powerhouses this season and having beaten South Africa a couple of weeks ago, a win over the Wallabies here would be a bonus. Another loss for the Wallabies against Ireland this weekend will see the Spring tour labelled as a failure, so there is a lot of pressure on the players and Michael Cheika. In saying that, I do think the Wallabies will cause the upset this weekend in what could be yet another high scoring match.
Predicted result: Australia to win @ $2.15 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 3: Australia +2.0 (vs Ireland) @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Wales ($6.25) vs New Zealand ($1.13)
All eyes will be on the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff on Saturday night when Wales host New Zealand in front of what will be a very vocal crowd. The Welsh have not beaten New Zealand since 1953, a run that stretches 26 games. It has been an ordinary start to the Autumn Internationals for Wales having lost to the Wallabies (28 – 33) and then they laboured to a narrow (17 – 13) victory over Fiji last weekend. Looking at the All Blacks, they have beaten the USA, England and Scotland in recent weeks, however, they have failed to hit top form. These two last met in 2012 in Cardiff, where the All Blacks won 33 – 10, having entered the halftime break leading 23 – 0.
Wales
Wales have always been a team of so much promise having won the RBS 6 Nations and achieving semi-finalist status at the last RWC in New Zealand, however, they have only achieved one win from the past 26 matches against the big three of the southern hemisphere. Unfortunately, this is something that Warren Gatland will be remembered by, but they have a great chance to turn things around against either the All Blacks this Saturday, or the Springboks next weekend. A number of players have been recalled having been rested for last week’s clash against Fiji, but the battle up front will be what determines the outcome of this match. Prop Gethin Jenkins has been ruled out with a hamstring injury and has been replaced by Paul James. Five of the eight forwards represented the British & Irish Lions during last year’s winning tour, with the backline also offering more invitational tourists. Rhys Webb continues to hold out Mike Phillips at halfback with Dan Biggar also edging out James Hook and Rhys Priestland at flyhalf. Jamie Roberts and Jonathon Davies are an accomplished centre pairing but they will have their mettle tested this weekend. The back three of George North, Alex Cuthbert and Leigh Halfpenny are as good as it gets, so it will be interesting to see how they rate against the best back three in the business.
New Zealand
It is hard to look too deeply into last weekend’s somewhat ineffective performance over Scotland given that there were so many personnel changes. Although the Kiwis only managed to win by eight points, it is clear that there is more than enough depth in New Zealand and they have now been the best team in the world on the IRB rankings for the past five years. Having had a look at the team that Steve Hansen has made for Saturday’s clash, I fear for Wales. I believe this is the best New Zealand team with 12 changes made from last weekend’s clash, including the axing of Dan Carter. The tight five of Crockett, Coles, Franks, Retallick and Whitelock are hard to fault and offer so much in the New Zealand engine room. In the back row, Jerome Kaino joins captain Richie McCaw and the reigning IRB Player of the Year, Kieran Read. Beauden Barrett has been recalled to replace Dan Carter at flyhalf, with Aaron Smith a certainty at halfback every time he is fit. Sonny Bill-Williams is a new dad having skipped one of the training sessions this week to view the birth of his wife on Skype and he forms a dangerous centre partnership with the evergreen Conrad Smith. Julian Savea continues his dominance on the left wing, with Charles Piutau selected on the right wing pushing Ben Smith to fullback displacing Israel Dagg from the 23. The bench has a good blend of youth and experience, but to be honest, I think they won’t have a whole lot to do come the 60-minute mark. Richie McCaw will also tick off another milestone this weekend when he will captain his country for the 100th time. No more needs to be said about a man who is simply the face of world rugby.
Prediction
The only way that I can see the Welsh causing an upset, is if the All Blacks minds are already on holiday (we all remember what happened against Ireland last year), but they learn from their mistakes better than any other team in the world. The AB’s have been the best team in the world for the past five years and although the Welsh crowd will back their warriors, the All Blacks dominate the ‘one percenters’ and that will get them over the line once again this weekend.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win @ $1.13 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: New Zealand – 13.5 (vs Wales) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet (early twitter play)
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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