Last weekend’s feast of International rugby has come and gone, but with at least another six matches to come this weekend, there is a lot to digest and analyse from a rugby and betting point of view. Last weekend, the All Blacks and the Wallabies secured victories over England and Wales, whereas the Springboks were shocked in Dublin and beaten comprehensively by an understrength Irish team. Samoa, Fiji and Argentina also managed to find themselves on the wrong side of the scoreboard against Italy, France and Scotland. Looking ahead to this week, the three southern hemisphere powerhouses, the All Blacks, Springboks and the Wallabies will face Scotland, England and France in important encounters. As was the case last week, all of the matchups this weekend will impact the IRB world rankings and it will be interesting to see if the Wallabies hold onto third spot having moved up from fourth after this win against Wales. Last weekend, saw the north narrowly close the gap, but consistency has always been the main challenge for our northern foes. With a week of form under my belt, I am confident that my picks below will yield some winnings to play with over the next few weeks. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat. Good luck!
Best Bet 1: South Africa +2.0 (vs England) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Scotland vs New Zealand – Second Half Points Over 25.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Australia +1.0 (vs France) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (E.T.P)
Take Australia to win now @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: France vs Australia – Total Points Over 41.5 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 5: Tonga – 7.0 (vs USA) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
E.T.P = Early twitter play
England ($1.75) vs South Africa ($2.10)
All eyes will be on Rugby HQ on Saturday evening when England host South Africa at a sold out Twickenham in London. Last weekend at this very venue, the All Blacks outclassed England by coming from behind to secure a narrow 24 – 21 victory, however, I do feel that the scoreboard somewhat flattered the home team. In Dublin, Heyneke Meyer experienced his first European tour loss since he took over the reigns of the green machine when the Springboks were humiliated 15 – 29 in front of a boisterous crowd. The Springboks haven’t lost the England since 2006, a run that has stretched 11 games (with one draw), but I can assure you that the home team will have their tails up this weekend and will be looking to break the recent duck over their long time rivals.
England
As was the case with England during their tour of New Zealand in June, it was a case of close, but no cigar once again last weekend at Twickenham. Jonny May’s blistering pace was the catalyst to scoring the first try of the match. They way he glided past Conrad Smith (has lost some speed) and Israel Dagg was impressive to watch and teams will have taken note to not give him as much space in future. However, after the elation created by the first try, England’s performance meandered south from that point and they were simply outthought and outclassed by a team that just knows how to win.
Stuart Lancaster has made just the one change this week to his team to play the Springboks in London. The forward pack remains unchanged with Dave Marler, Dylan Hartley and Rob Webber in the front, Courtney Lawes and Dave Atwood selected as locks and Tom Wood, captain Chris Robshaw and Billy Vunipola chosen in the back row. Danny Care continues at halfback and will play inside Owen Farrell, with Kyle Eastmond and Brad Barritt in the centres. The change sees Bath 20-year-old outside back, Anthony Watson replace Semesa Rokoduguni who is out through injury. Mike Brown rounds out the starting 15 at fullback. England has always been strong at the set piece, but they will come up against a Springbok forward pack that has something to prove after going off the boil last week in Dublin. They do possess a lot of X-factor in the backs, but this match will be won in the forwards so I expect the physicality in this match to be of the highest order.
South Africa
I certainly don’t think it is a time for the Springboks to panic after their loss to Ireland, but perhaps it was another loss that they needed to have. Prior to the Test match, there were reports saying that this was the best Springbok team in 20 years – I agreed. I still do, but a number of their players let them down and Francois Hougaard and Handre Pollard failed to control the game behind a retreating forward pack. Unfortunately for the pair, they have been ditched and placed on the bench this weekend. The Springboks dominated possession and territory, but their hands really let them down and their plays looked rushed. Heyneke Meyer has opted to make five changes to face the old enemy this weekend. There are two changes in the forwards with Adriaan Strauss replacing Bismarck du Plessis and Schalk Burger comes in for Teboho Mohoje, who seems to just lack that edge at this level. By recalling Schalk Burger, Meyer will be looking for him to exercise his natural abrasiveness and ability to disrupt the English breakdown. In the backs, Sharks halfback Cobus Reinach takes over from Francois Hougaard, Pat Lambie will get another shot in the number ten jersey and JP Pietersen returns to the wing in place of Cornal Hendricks. The bench is still stacked with talent and experience and I do expect some of last week’s starters to get a good deal of game time, to make amends against a team that they so badly want to defeat.
Prediction
This is a really hard match to predict considering that South Africa has the psychological edge of an eight-year win streak, whereas England would be feeling confident having run the All Blacks close last weekend. Both of these teams will look to do the basics well this weekend and I feel that the Springboks will be a lot better off after their run-around in Dublin and will be looking to assert themselves against the Rugby World Cup hosts. For me, it will be a tight match and the breakdown and scrum battle will be key, but I expect the Boks to pressure England into a few bad decisions and should the visitors hold their discipline, I can see them producing a thought-provoking win.
Predicted result: South Africa to win a close one @ $2.10 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 1: South Africa +2.0 (vs England) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
Scotland ($12.00) vs New Zealand ($1.04)
Murrayfield will be buzzing this weekend when the All Blacks travel north from London to Edinburgh to face a Scotland outfit that appears to have had a shift in mindset under the guidance of their New Zealand-born coach Vern Cotter. Last weekend against Argentina, a team that held their own for the most part against the All Blacks, Scotland ran in five tries in a free-flowing display to win 41 – 31 and also win over a few neutral fans in the process. In London, the AB’s once again proved why they are the best team in world rugby by coming from behind to beat England in front of a packed house at Rugby HQ.
Scotland
The vibe around Edinburgh on Saturday night after the match would’ve been electric after Scotland’s performance for the ages against Argentina. However, unfortunately for them, it looks like they will plummet back to earth with the All Blacks invited to town. How good Scotland’s performance against the Pumas last week will be evident after the match this weekend, but the influence of Vern Cotter has already been seen and it is very refreshing to see Scotland playing rugby that mimics game plans that the southern hemisphere teams utilise. To put it into perspective, it was the first time that Scotland has scored this many tries in a fixture against a tier one nation since Ireland in 2009. The Gray brothers, locks Richie and Jonny had strong outings, as did captain Greig Laidlaw, who has been under pressure recently due to some wayward form at provincial level. His sniping runs and quick thinking certainly caught the Pumas off guard and 22-year old flyhalf Finn Russell also had a positive match, but the All Blacks will throw more questions at him than he most likely will be able to handle this week. Coach Vern Cotter has decided to name the same starting 15 for the match in Edinburgh this weekend. In saying that, there are four new faces on the bench with Fraser Brown and Tim Swinson replacing Scott Lawson and big Jim Hamilton and flanker Johnnie Beattie and halfback Chris Cusiter take over from Alasdair Strokosch and Henry Pyrgos.
New Zealand
Another test down and another victory to the All Blacks, albeit not an entirely convincing one. The All Blacks possess so many players that can turn a match on it’s head and because of that, there is never any reason to panic because if they play to structure, their one-on-one superiority and higher skill levels will get them over the line more often than not. By no means was New Zealand’s performance over England a dominant one, but it would’ve just instilled the extra confidence to know for sure that they can beat them in their own back yard ahead of the Rugby World Cup next year. Richie McCaw continues to show why he will go down in Rugby folklore as one of the greatest players of all time by defying age, injuries and continuing to lead one of the most successful teams in world sport. An interesting stat came out during the week about the All Blacks ability to score points when they have been reduced to 14 men. In 2014, the All Blacks have been given seven yellow cards and during that period they have outscored their opponents by 18 points. This just reiterates the strength that the All Blacks have in terms of their defence, sticking to structures and always being in peak physical condition.
Steve Hansen has sprung a few surprises this week with his team selections for his team’s match against Scotland. Hansen has rung the changes and gone for an experimental front row in Joe Moody, debutant James Parsons and Charlie Faumauina and Jeremy Thrush will partner Dominic Bird in the second row. Captain courageous, Richie McCaw shifts to the blindside flanker role, with Chiefs flanker Sam Cane set to feature on the openside with Victor Vito at number eight. TJ Perenara will play in the nine jersey, with the leading Test points scorer Dan Carter returning to the fray for the first time in the last twelve months. Ryan Crotty and Malakai Fekitoa form an interesting centre partnership with Charles Piutau, Colin Slade and Ben Smith at fullback. All in all, 13 changes have been made and the team selected looks much more like the one that played the USA and if anything, Scotland will feel like they are in more with a chance.
Prediction
The history books tell us that there is only one way this match can go and that is towards a strong All Blacks victory. In 29 attempts, the brave Scots have failed to ever secure a victory with a 19-point margin the closest match in the last ten years. The ‘new’ All Blacks will be jumping out of their skin to try and cement a spot in the regular team. Scotland will always be brave, but for me, I see the All Blacks winning by around three tries. Given the inclement weather and the ‘B’ team nature of the All Blacks, things might be a bit narrower, but the result will never be in doubt.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win @ $1.04 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 2: Scotland vs New Zealand – Second Half Points Over 25.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
France ($1.92) vs Australia ($1.92)
Australia will play France for the fourth time this season when they clash at the Stade de France in Paris on Saturday night (early Sunday morning AEDST). Many will remember Australia’s recent 3 – 0 drubbing of France in June, including a shutout in Melbourne and two 20+ victories in Brisbane and Sydney. France is coming off a solid 40 – 15 victory over the Flying Fijians, whereas the Wallabies beat Wales in yet another thriller in Cardiff for their 10th successive win against the Red Dragons.
France
I am not going to read too much into France’s victory over the Fijians last week given the inconsistency of the islanders over the past few seasons. Looking back to the June Test series, the French just didn’t have the firepower to cause Australia too many problems, but Les Bleus did beat the Wallabies in 2012 (33 – 6) in Paris, the last time these two teams played each other in Europe. Against Fiji, former South African under-21 player Scott Spedding had a great debut, chalking up over 200 run metres. However, his selection in the team has caused some divide amongst rugby fans in France given that he isn’t ‘French’, but rather he has qualified as a result of living in France for the past 36 months. There will be no controversy about Teddy Thomas’ performance after the Racing Metro winger crossed for three tries on his international debut. He is a player that will be targeted by the Wallabies this weekend so it will be interesting to see how he handles the likes of Kuridrani and Folau, but he is certainly a player to watch out for over the next few seasons. French coach Phillippe Saint-Andre has kept the same team to face the Wallabies this week, opting for consistency, however they will be under a lot more pressure this weekend against a Wallabies team that is offensively very strong. It has been well documented this week that France will also need to cut out their errors after conceding 16 turnovers last weekend in Marseille.
Australia
Australia’s win over Wales last weekend has elevated them back into third position in the IRB world rankings behind South Africa and the All Blacks.
Another win this weekend will have the Wallabies at 3-0 under the guidance of new coach Michael Cheika. In saying that, France at home is a completely different kettle of fish and they will be out to avenge their poor showings in Australia earlier this year. It was great to see Israel Folau back in try-scoring form last week when he grabbed a brace and Tevita Kuridrani continues to impress me and I would have him as the form outside centre in the world at the moment. Bernard Foley continues to kick his goals accurately and his composure was probably the difference between the Wallabies and Wales on the weekend. Cheika has decided to make just the one change this week with James Horwill slotting back into the tight five to help bolster the scrum, an area which was once again a concern last weekend. Sam Carter has featured in many of the Wallabies matches this season, but I can’t say I am convinced with either him or James Horwill in the locking department. There has been talk that former Waratahs captain Dave Dennis has been in a special training facility in the USA trying to covert himself from a back rower into a lock, so perhaps the coaching staff aren’t sold on the aforementioned players either. This weekend’s match against France will be a big one for Dennis’ teammate, Sekope Kepu as he will be become the 6th prop in Australian rugby history to play 50 times for his country. He is often a player that doesn’t receive many accolades, but simply just gets the job done by throwing his huge frame into rucks and mauls and keeping his side of the scrum ‘stable’.
Prediction
The Wallabies will know that playing France in Paris will be a completely different proposition to what they experienced in Australia in June. It is hard to read too much into France’s win over Fiji last week and Australia will be a much sterner challenge. Although Australia’s defense is somewhat shaky at present, they possess a number of attacking threats and a goal kicker that the Wallabies have been missing for the last few seasons and I expect them to get a narrow win.
Predicted result: Australia to win @ $1.92 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 3: Australia +1.0 (vs France) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play) Take Australia to win now
Best Bet 4: France vs Australia – Total Points Over 41.5 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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