480 minutes of hard-hitting international rugby was played last weekend and the gap between the southern and northern hemispheres was once again exposed as Australia, New Zealand and South Africa all claimed victories over Italy, France and Wales respectively. This week sees a blockbuster clash in London where the All Blacks continue their journey towards a perfect season against an England team that is slowly developing Twickenham into a fortress. It was a highly profitable round where five out of seven Best Bets cashed, including a $6 multi and I am confident for similar returns this weekend. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat. Good luck!
Best Bet 1: Italy – 7.5 (vs Fiji) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: New Zealand -13.5 (vs England) @ $2.00 – Bet365
Best Bet 3: Total Points Over 41.5 @ $1.90 – Bet365
Best Bet 4: x2 France -23.5 (vs Tonga) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 5: Australia to win (vs Ireland) @ $1.98 – Betfair
Note: Additional plays will follow for Scotland vs South Africa and potentially some more for the matches below once all markets have been released
Italy ($1.31) versus Fiji ($3.95)
The Italians will be out to restore some pride this weekend when they face the flying Fijians in the north of Italy at the Stadio Flaminio in the first fixture of the weekend. Italy were outplayed and outclassed in Torino last week when the Wallabies ran riot in notching up a half century to the locals, 20 points. In Lisbon, Fiji got their end-of-year campaign off to a winning start scoring four tries in a 36 – 13 win. This will be an enthralling clash of styles and one not to be missed, especially with sunny skies predicted in Cremona.
Italy
Jacques Brunel inherited an and developing, yet inconsistent team from ex-Springboks coach Nick Mallett in 2011 and although he has a winning percentage of around 40%, they have failed to regularly be a threat to the stronger nations of world rugby. However, wins against France and Ireland this year show they are definitely heading in the right direction. The Azzurri showed glimpses of what they are capable last week, but they were simply outmuscled and outclassed against a more desperate Australian team. Their early 10 – 0 lead was squandered, but they should take some confidence out of scoring three tries and the score line would’ve been closer had Argentinian born fly half Alberto di Bernardo not sprayed a number of kicks either side of the uprights. Captain Sergio Parisse and prop Martin Castrogiovanni will go down in history as two of the best Italian rugby players to ever play the game and it is fitting that they will both earn their 100th caps on Saturday evening. One gets the feeling that both of these gladiators will need to assert their dominance in the tight and pressurise the Fijian forward pack if the Azzurri are to prevail. Jacques Brunel has given a number of his fringe players an opportunity this week, but he has still managed to select an experienced side that should put up a good performance against the Pacific Islanders.
Fiji
Fiji play an exciting brand of rugby and their love for the Sevens format is often displayed in the longer version of the game. They have a very dynamic forward pack and backs that possess large amounts of power and pace, so they are a very tricky team to face. Their form during the Rugby World Cups is generally of a higher standard given their access to a full compliment of players, but they often struggle in between them as is evidenced by their 50% win record last year. As aforementioned, their only clash in 2013 occurred last week against Portugal in Lisbon, and they will be looking to build on that victory this week against the Italians. Fijian coach Inake Male has made a number of changes to his match day squad this week and the team has a very European flavour, with a number of players currently plying their trade in the Aviva Premiership. Fiji will be captained by Leicester Tiger’s flanker Akapusi Qera and the backline looks very threatening with players such as Napolioni Nalaga (Clermont), new Waratahs recruit Nemani Nadolo and Chiefs speedster Asaeli Tikoirotuma due to take the field.
Prediction
Last week’s defeat to the Wallabies was one of only a few setbacks faced during their 2013 season, especially given that their RBS 6 Nations campaign was their most successful since their inception to the tournament in 2000. Italy cannot afford for this match to open up and they need to keep things as tight as possible because the Fijians pose some of the most attacking threats in the game. This weekend is the perfect opportunity for the Italians to tactically defeat the ‘all guns blazing’ approach that Fiji play with and although it is a given that Fiji scores a try or two, structurally the Italians have the edge and I believe this will show on the scoreboard.
Predicted result: Italy to win @ $1.31 – Betfair
Best Bet 1: Italy – 7.5 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
England ($6.25) versus New Zealand ($1.13)
Rugby HQ, known more commonly as Twickenham will host the blockbuster match of the round, if not of the Autumn Internationals when the hosts clash with the All Blacks in front of a packed house on Saturday. England has won six consecutive matches in London and were victorious over Argentina last weekend in a match, where they looked brilliant for some parts and ordinary for others. The same goes for the All Blacks, where they were really pushed by a gallant French team, but in the end their superior defensive qualities held firm and they achieved their fourth win over France this year and their eighth in succession.
England
England built on their strong record against Argentina last weekend in London, however, the old rugby cliché of it being a ‘match of two halves’ is more than a fair assessment. Two tries in the opening stanza to Joe Launchbury and centre Billy Twelvetrees (ironically his family has a tree-lopping business) had the home crowd expectant of a sizeable victory, however, the halftime break did nothing but kill all of the momentum England had conjured up. The visitors fought back valiantly in the second half, but England’s lack on fluency saw them fail to rack up a cricket score like the Springboks and the Wallabies managed to do to the Pumas this year. Young number eight Billy Vunipola continues to prove himself so early on in his career, and rampaging back rower Ben Morgan scored a powerful try off the bench to remind Stuart Lancaster of his potential at the back of the scrum. Chris Ashton, once a regular threat on the wing butchered what should have been a regulation try and his days in the white jersey could well be numbered. The 31 – 12 final score line really flattered an unconvincing English performance, however, the sign of a good team is when you win and still don’t necessarily play your best rugby. Unfortunately for England, this appears to be a bit of a trend and stringing together two halves of complete rugby is becoming more difficult than one would expect. Against Australia they fought back bravely from a half time deficit and last weekend a strong opening 40 saw them race out to a lead against the Pumas. Nothing short of a complete showing this week will suffice against the All Blacks and the buzz around the match appears to signify that England fans aren’t completely sold on the way their team is playing at the moment.
Coach Stuart Lancaster has only made one change to the starting fifteen bringing in prop Dan Cole who will play his 40th game out of a possible 43, so clearly he is one of the cornerstones of English rugby at the moment. Matt Mullan is in line to play his second match for England off the bench and Ben Youngs, brother of English hooker Tom Youngs, returns to the bench after pulling out late in the piece last week. The forward pack has been strong over the last couple of weeks, but none more so than Northampton Saints back rower Tom Wood. He has grown in leaps and bounds over the past few seasons and Tom Croft’s unfortunate run with injuries has seen Wood make the jersey his own. The backline has promise, but I really feel that the centre pairing of Billy Twelvetrees and Joel Tomkins will get a work over this week. When England defeated the All Blacks last year, their centre combination of Brad Barritt and Manu Tuilagi potentially had their best games ever in the white jersey, but I can’t see the current breed posing Ma’a Nonu and Ben Smith too many problems. England need to play direct confrontational rugby this weekend because there is no point trying to beat the All Blacks by playing in the wide channels without earning the right to do so I expect there to be a lot of trench warfare.
New Zealand
It doesn’t get any better than 12 wins from 12 starts in season 2013. Coach Steve Hansen and his troops are on the brink of recording a perfect season, something that is a rare feat in modern day rugby. You get the feeling that if they were ever going to lose a match this tour it was last week against their ‘bogey ‘ team and they almost came unstuck. However, defence has been the hallmark of their game and ultimately watertight defence wins matches, especially when coupled with one of the most potent attacks the game has ever seen. Charles Piutau and Brodie Retallick were once again the standout performers and Kieran Read’s try will go down as one of the best of the year thanks largely to a sublime flick pass from Piutau, who appears to be very comfortable at this level in his first season of international rugby. Against France, Richie McCaw broke Brian O’Driscoll’s record for most matches played as captain with 85 and with New Zealand’s plan to shepherd him through to the Rugby World Cup in 2015, it appears he will set a record that will not be surpassed for many, many years.
Dan Carter, the golden boy of New Zealand rugby will play his 100th test against the English on Saturday night, a feat that only 4 of his teammates have reached before him (Richie McCaw, Mils Muliaina, Kevin Mealamu and Tony Woodcock). In my opinion, he will without doubt go down as the best fly half to ever play the game. His defensive work is solid, his running game leaves people in his wake, his passing game creates more than enough opportunities for his teammates and his kicking game is second to none. He really is the complete package and deserves all the credit and accolades that he receives. Dan Carter will also share the night with the workhorse Sam Whitelock, who will play his 50th match for his country. He has notched up 50 test matches in his fourth season of international rugby and he looks to be an integral cog of the All Blacks spine for the foreseeable future. Looking at the match day 23, coach Steve Hansen has only made one change bringing in the ‘Jonah Lomu-like’ Julian Savea who has recovered from a bout of the flu in place of Cory Jane. He has also bolstered his bench with pure power in Luke Romano and Steven Luatua in place of the impressive Sam Cane. The team is one that is capable of adapting to any situation that is thrown at them and one that can switch between game plans with ease, which is what pretty much every other team in world rugby struggles with at the present time.
Prediction
Will England repeat last year’s huge-upset or will the All Blacks head to Dublin on the brink of recording a perfect season. England have been searching for an 80 minute performance all year and you expect if they are to beat the All Blacks this weekend, they’ll need to compete strongly in all areas for the duration of the match. With the memories of the corresponding fixture still rife in their minds, the All Blacks will be prepared mentally and physically and I expect the reverse to happen in 2013, with a comprehensive victory to the visitors on the back of a strong second half.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win @ $1.13 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: New Zealand -13.5 @ $2.00 – Bet365
Wales ($1.21) versus Argentina ($6.20)
Wales return to the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff this weekend battered and bruised after a physical encounter with the Springboks last week that saw them go down 24 – 15. It was a barbaric-like test match that depleted the Welsh stocks for the rest of the series, but their inaccuracy in attack is something they will be focussing on this week. They welcome the Argentinians who ironically haven’t recorded a victory since the corresponding fixture last year where they upset the home team 26 – 12 on the back of a 2 tries to nil performance.
Wales
Welsh rugby has come along way since the Millennium Stadium was born in 1999, developing from European ‘easy beats’ to the Kings of the northern hemisphere just over a decade later. On that memorable day in 1999 when the stadium was christened for the first time, Wales faced South Africa and recorded their one and only victory over the Springboks 29 – 19. Fourteen years later, two giants of world rugby clashed again and this time the Springboks manhandled their opposition in a brutal encounter that contained shuddering hits and two of the best tries we will see all season. After the pre-match hype that hailed Wales as having the core of the successful British & Irish Lions team this year, the Welsh started the match with a bang and centre Jonathan Davies only took a couple of minutes to break the green wall, but was eventually cut down thanks to some desperate cover defence. It wasn’t long before Davies impressively made his second clean line break, but Wales’ recent offensive inefficiencies were once again exposed. Leigh Halfpenny kicked a couple of early penalties and it took a sensational team try rounded off by the in-form Jean de Villiers to swing the momentum in the visitors favour and they never really looked back. Wales were down 17 – 12 when the half-time whistle sounded and they could only manage another penalty goal after the break, whereas the Springboks managed to cross the try line courtesy of some Fourie du Preez brilliance and the Springboks recorded their 14th victory in succession over the Dragons. Welsh Coach Warren Gatland has made an incredible difference to the nation’s rugby programme, however, with only one win from 22 matches against the former Tri-Nations teams (Australia, New Zealand and South Africa), surely some questions need to be asked.
The Welsh aren’t able to call upon the services of impressive centre Jonathan Davies (replaced by debutant Cory Allen), Dan Lydiate and experienced prop Adam Jones (replaced by Rhodri Jones) this week due to injury, but Warren Gatland has still managed to name a strong line up. Out and out fetcher Justin Tipuric has been brought in to showcase his skills at the breakdown, but otherwise the forward pack is largely unchanged. Rhys Priestland drops out of the squad and Dan Biggar has been put in charge of orchestrating a backline that despite their size and skills, have failed to score many tries in recent weeks. Gethin Jenkins a warrior of Welsh rugby is set to makes his 100th test appearance in a prestigious year that has seen many others do the same. He is a player that does the small things very well and although he received a yellow card last week for illegal scrumming, his presence is invaluable to the home team and will be this weekend.
Argentina
After a year without any international test victories, Argentina had a chance to go to Twickenham and register their first win at Rugby HQ in seven long years. After coming up against the might of Australia, New Zealand and South Africa twice each this year, I was reasonably confident that Argentina had the personnel to come up with the goods and at the very least cover the 14.5 handicap. Having been run off their feet in the first half and trailing 24 – 6, they failed to score any tries and they only managed to double their points and England prevailed victors 31 – 12. A plethora of rugby journalists have stated that England’s victory was ‘unconvincing’ and I have to agree, which doesn’t say much for Argentinian rugby at the moment. In their last eight fixtures, they have only managed to average 12 points per game, so moving forwards, the ‘unders’ in the total points (Argentina) market should be taken into consideration. In all honesty, very few players from the visitors showcased a high-level of play, but Marcos Ayerza had a storming game and his consistent form has seen him rewarded as one of the top three loosehead props in the world this season.
Having beaten Wales this time last year, they will take some confidence from that performance and they need to win at least one of their next two games (next week they play Italy) to have something to build on next year. Daniel Hourcade has made four changes this week to the team that was outclassed by England, most notably with Sevens star Santiago Cordero making his first start in place of Juan Imhoff. The second row gets a boost with Manuel Carizza returning and Martin Landago takes over at scrum half from Tomas Cubelli. The final change sees Lucas Gonzales Amorosino, a player that has failed to show what he is truly capable of this year, dropped for the versatile utility back Joaquín Tuculet who will only be playing for the Pumas for the sixth time.
Prediction
This clash on Saturday is one that both teams will be desperate to record a win given Wales’ generally poor Autumn International results and Argentina’s dour 2013. Wales are the reigning RBS 6 Nations champions and on paper they are stronger than the Pumas, but as we all know, rugby is played on grass. This match will be won at the set-piece and the Welsh are in for a real battle here as the Argentinians place a lot of emphasis on winning the scrum, and it will be interesting to see how the pitch holds up after the farcical state it was in last week. Daniel Hourcade will be hoping his troops can replicate their 2012 success against Wales, but I foresee a moment of brilliance breaking the early deadlock in this match and given Argentina’s poor showing at Twickenham last week, I am leaning towards Wales to make it a memorable occasion for their stalwart prop Gethin Jenkins.
Predicted result: Wales to win @ $1.21 – Betfair
Best Bet 3: Total Points Over 41.5 @ $1.90 – Bet365
France ($1.04) versus Tonga ($22.00)
The Stade de France in Paris will host its second test match in succession when a desperate French outfit faces South Sea Islanders Tonga on Saturday. France came within a few inches of drawing with the All Blacks last week, but were held out staunchly by the world champions. Last weekend, Tonga were miraculously beaten by Romania in Bucharest in the first ever fixture between these two nations. France has faced Tonga four times during their tenure on the international stage, remarkably for a two wins and two losses record, with the latest match seeing the visitors triumph 19 – 15 in Wellington during the Rugby World Cup in 2011.
France
French rugby is synonymous for flair, scrumming and their never say die attitude. Last week’s performance against the All Blacks had shades of all of these when the home team managed to apply some serious pressure to the All Blacks, only something the Springboks have mirrored this season. On a pitch that deteriorated significantly throughout the course of the match and simply not up to international rugby standards, the French arm-wrestled their way to a dour 9 – 9 draw at half time. Some goal-kicking misfortunes from scrum half Morgan Parra and two dazzling New Zealand tries had the French on the back foot, before they managed to manufacture a try through some slick back line play for fullback Brice Dulin to cross the chalk. France turned up the pressure gauge in the final ten minutes of the match when they were camped in the All Black’s 22, however, it took a phenomenal absorption of pressure by the visitors and Damien Chouly’s brain explosion at the back of the French scrum to deny the home side of a season-changing draw. France’s usual suspects of prop Nicolas Mas, captain Thierry Dusautoir and inside centre Wesley Fofana had strong games, however, they will need more input from the rest of the squad if they are to turn some of these narrow defeats into victories.
Head coach Phillippe Saint-Andre has made five changes to the line up that bravely confronted the All Blacks last week and he can afford to do so against this opposition and with the Springboks coming to town next week. The pack sees three changes including the introduction of Sebastian Vahaamahina, Fulgence Ouedraogo and French golden boy Dimitri Szarzewski in place of Pascal Pape, Wenceslas Lauret and Benjamin Kayser respectively. Former under-20 star and promising prospect Gael Fickou replaces his club teammate Florian Fritz in the centres and Sofiane Guitone, who has one of the most feminine first names in rugby, will debut this weekend after some strong performances with French Top 14 club Perpignan. The bench has a blend of youth and experience and I can’t quite understand why Saint-Andre persists with Frederic Michalak on the bench as I believe he is well past his expiry date.
Tonga
Tongan rugby has always been the weakest of the three Pacific Islander nations and they have often struggled both on the field with performance and off the field with financial difficulties. There has been talk that a Pacific Islander team could feature in the Super Rugby competition over the coming years and this might be something that will lure a number of their players back from overseas and stop the exodus of their home-based players to New Zealand and European clubs. Tonga or ‘Ikale Tahi as they are also known possess some strong players including Sona Taumololo, the try-scoring machine once at the Chiefs, a strong back row of Sione Kalamafoni, Nili Latu and Viliami Ma’afu and winger Fetu’u Vainikolo. Taniela Moa, most likely the biggest half back in International rugby weighing in at a whopping 102 kilos is deceptive and he cut his teeth with the Auckland Blues and the Chiefs in Super Rugby. Unlike the Fijian game, if this match loses its structure and becomes a free-flowing spectacle, I can see the French cantering away.
Prediction
The hype that surrounded the Rugby World Cup in New Zealand and the local support that the Tongans received helped propel them to a famous victory in Wellington. The French scrum was torn apart, rather surprisingly, but unfortunately for the visitors, that won’t happen this weekend and with the French out for revenge, I can see the largest winning margin achieved this week of the entire Autumn series. I am very confident taking France with the handicap, especially if the weather forecasts are correct in suggesting there will be fog and very little chance of any rain.
Predicted result: France to win @ $1.04 – Betfair
Best Bet 4: x2 France -23.5 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
Ireland ($2.14) versus Australia ($1.98)
Aviva Stadium, known previously as Landsdowne Road will host the second biggest clash of the weekend when a confident Irish team plays host to the Wallabies who make the trip over from Italy. The Wallabies bounced back last weekend with a huge win over the Azzurri in Torino, which I saw coming from a mile away given Australia’s ability to put away the lower ranked teams, but failure to match it with the best. On the other hand, Ireland easily covered the line over an understrength Manu Samoan outfit that saw them run in five tries en route to a 40 – 9 routing. These two teams haven’t clashed since 2011 when a superior defensive effort held the Wallabies to six points, however, history is on the visitors side having only lost three fixtures since 1979.
Ireland
Ireland’s new coach Joe Schmidt kicked off his international test record with a promising win over an understrength Samoan squad. The opening twenty was one you wouldn’t want to watch again, however, once the Irish weathered the physicality of the Samoans, their strong structural foundation and overall cohesion saw them score five tries. It was a night that saw Ireland’s debutants thrive in the cauldron of international rugby, with Leinster prop Jack McGrath picking up the man-of-the-match accolade and replacement winger Dave Kearney scoring a brace of tries to bury the Samoans. Thanks to their demolition of the Pacific Islanders last week, they have overtaken Samoa and Wales and find themselves sitting in sixth position in the IRB World Rankings. With the All Blacks coming to town next weekend, if the Irish are to have what they would deem to be a successful November campaign, they will need to beat the Wallabies this weekend.
It certainly appears that Ireland have the personnel to once again cause problems for Australia based on Coach Joe Schmidt’s team announcement on Thursday. Schmidt has recalled Ireland’s big guns and British & Irish Lions tourists, Paul O’Connell, Cian Healy, Sean O’Brien and fly half Johnny Sexton who form a large part of Ireland’s core. Additionally, a further six Lions tourists make up the rest of the match day 23. Quite surprisingly, the home side is comprised of 11 players that featured in the RWC quarterfinal matchup in Auckland two years ago, which in fact was the last time these two teams met. The pack is strong and mixes bulk with height and the backline includes a number of seasoned players, most notably Brian O’Driscoll. I have no doubt that this will be the last time he faces the Wallabies and many Australia fans will be relieved given his knack of scoring either game-winning or game-tying tries against them. Keep an eye out for inside centre Luke Marshall as a number of high profile writers and ex-players are singing his praises a long-term future with Irish rugby and the experience he will get playing alongside B.O.D will be invaluable.
Australia
Australia’s sometimes hot, but largely cold season continued last weekend on the back of a 50 – 20 thrashing of Italy. They are still yet to taste defeat against the Azzurri having won all 16 fixtures. Things looked grim when Italy raced out to a 10 – 0 lead courtesy of Australian-born Luke Maclean’s try, but Ben Mowen’s charged over like a man possessed to kick start Australia’s engine. The Wallabies superior power and pace was evident throughout the match and winger Nick Cummins was virtually unstoppable scoring two tries in the process. Queensland Reds and Wallabies dynamic duo of Quade Cooper and Will Genia were instrumental in the Wallabies strong performance with the former surpassing the 100-point milestone in Test rugby. Cooper’s best game of the year both for club and country saw him create three tries and setup three line breaks. Michael Hooper once again produced some of his best rugby with a number of breakdown turnovers and Tevita Kuridrani and Israel Folau are starting to barge through the outside channels with ease as they play more games together. Folau made over 100 metres on attack for the third match in succession on the way to scoring his eighth try of the season. This victory will be nothing more than an outlier if the Qantas Wallabies can’t back up their performance in Dublin, but one gets the feeling that the sleeping giant is slowly starting to wake, just in time to make a charge towards the Rugby World Cup in England in two years time.
Ewen McKenzie has opted for consistency in terms of selection by making only three changes, one of which is positional. The first sees Scott Fardy return from concussion to play the in the number six jersey in place of Rob Simmons who shifts back to the second row. McKenzie must have thought long and hard about this change after Simmons made a game-high 16 tackles and also commanded the line out with four individual takes. Sekope Kepu also returns to the front row in place of Ben Alexander who drops out of the squad completely after a few lacklustre performances. Robbie Deans must be wondering why he left Quade Cooper out this year because after a few test matches to settle in, he has truly shown his value and no doubt has some of his opponents thinking overtime how to nullify his impact on the game. The backline is settled and will be a handful for the Irish defence, especially since Matt Toomua replaced Christian Liali’ifano at inside centre. Paddy Ryan is also in line to make his second appearance for the men in gold off the bench when he comes on as a replacement prop, most likely in the second half. The Wallabies are in need of some consistency and in all honesty, they are probably better positioned than most people give them credit for. With players like Higginbotham, Pocock and Beale returning to the fray next year, the worst of it may be over.
Prediction
This is a match that I am really looking forward to, especially after the RWC 2011 fixture that saw Ireland upset the Wallabies at Eden Park in Auckland. The last five encounters have seen both teams win two and draw one, so it is hard to split them based on recent history. It will be a step up in class this week for both teams after playing Samoa and Italy last week, but after a long southern hemisphere series, the Wallabies will be ready for this one and should prevail against the men in green by a score or two, with Hooper and Folau once again playing key roles in the match.
Predicted result: Australia to win @ $1.98 – Betfair
Best Bet 5: Australia to win @ $1.98 – Betfair
Scotland ($11.50) versus South Africa ($1.10)
In a rare Sunday fixture, Scotland welcomes an authoritative Springboks outfit to Murrayfield in what should be an intriguing clash. Scotland warmed up for this bout with a match against the Asian champions Japan last weekend and they didn’t have it all of their own way. In a spirited performance by the visitors, it took a Japanese sin binning for the tide to turn and the Scots ran out eventual 42 – 17 winners. The Springboks looked all business in the opening 20 minutes where they basically secured the match leading 17 – 6. When Alain Roland blew the final whistle, South Africa prevailed 24 – 15 on a deteriorating pitch.
Scotland
Scotland kicked off their Autumn campaign with a promising win over Japan last week, but they know their opposition this week is on a whole new level as they found out by their defeat in June in South Africa. Much like the Ireland and Samoan game, the Scots started slowly and were guilty of a number of handling errors and their offense was pedestrian. After half-time leading 11 – 3, Scotland quickly upped their tempo a few gears and miniature halfback Greg Laidlaw sniped through the Cherry Blossoms defence to open the flood gates. Winger Tommy Seymour soon crossed over for his second try followed by replacement prop Al Dickinson and substitute fly half Duncan Weir before Sean Lamont rounded out the scoring. It was a balanced team performance, but Tim Swinson, often regarded as being too small to be a lock, had his best game in the Scottish jersey and unfortunately for him, he has been robbed of a potential starting birth against the Springboks through injury. Regular second rower Richie Grey will have a battle on his hands over the next few seasons, which will only be healthy for the squad.
Australian-born coach Scott Johnson, has sprung a Ewen McKenzie-like surprise by making six changes and omitting captain Kelly Brown from the squad, replacing him with breakdown specialist John Barclay and shifting the responsibilities of captain to nuggetty scrum half Greg Laidlaw. One of Scotland’s try-scorers last week and promising centre Matt Scott has been ruled out of rest of the Autumn series due to a hand injury, which will surely impact the offensive impetus of the home team’s back line. His replacement Duncan Taylor has filled basically every backline position for his English club Saracens, but has only featured as an outside back for Scotland, so it is a huge gamble made by Scott Johnson against the world record holder centre partnership of Jean de Villiers and Jacques Fourie. Unfortunately for Euan Murray, he has voluntarily opted out of this fixture on religious grounds as he doesn’t play matches on Sundays, so Alasdair Dickinson gets another opportunity to front up against one of the biggest front rows in world rugby on Saturday, having faced them in South Africa in June.
South Africa
South Africa once again proved they are the second best team in world rugby when they smothered Wales in a classic war of attrition that saw a number of injuries and players gasping for air throughout the course of the match. It was the match of the round that saw a breathtaking opening half of running rugby and uncompromising defence. Willem Alberts played his heart out with 19 tackles before being replaced by Siya Kolisi who appears to be a great player to bring on off the bench when the opposition defences are tiring. Bismarck du Plessis asserted his dominance around the park and Eben Etzebeth continued his impressive season with a number of strong carries and bone-crunching hits. Half back Fourie du Preez was all class and his game management was the catalyst in receiving the man-of-the-match honours. He produced a gem of a kick off his unfavoured left boot that sat up nicely for Jacque Fourie and du Preez’s exceptional back up work saw him canter towards the Welsh line and dot down underneath the posts to put the game out of reach. The one thing that has plagued South Africa’s generally positive performances this year has been their discipline, where their forwards seem to take it in turns to sit in the naughty chair for ten minutes. Francois Louw was the culprit on this occasion and after some strong break down work, his aggression got the better of him when he jammed his elbow onto Richard Hibbard’s head at the bottom of a ruck. Their ill discipline cost them against the All Blacks and will need to be eradicated from their game if they are to challenge for the Rugby World Cup in 2015.
South Africa has decided to rest a number of their big guns this week and coach Heyneke Meyer has made five changes to give some of his fringe players some game time in a bid to increase the depth of the Springbok squad. Although it may take some time for these combinations to gel, the incoming players have received a number of minutes of game time on the field this international season, so it shouldn’t make too much of a difference. In the front row, big Gurthro Steenkamp replaces the ‘Beast’ and Adriaan Strauss comes in at hooker for Bismarck du Plessis. Strauss scored two tries for the Springboks at Murrayfield last year including a rare intercept that sealed the deal for the visitors in a man-of-the-match performance. Bad boy Bakkies Botha returns to the starting line up for the first time since the 2011 Rugby World Cup in place of the always-impressive Eben Etzebeth. Willem Alberts has been bracketed with Siya Kolisi and I expect the latter to take his place, with Albert’s raw power needed more so next weekend against France. Patrick Lambie swaps to the fly half jersey after Morne Steyn was ruled out with a back injury and Willie le Roux will start the match at fullback. It is a critical game for Bakkies, Lambie and le Roux for differing reasons. There are a number of outstanding locks coming through SA rugby at the moment and any ill discipline will see Botha left behind on future tours. Lambie and le Roux both have had solid Super Rugby seasons, but the onus will be on them to deliver in the northern hemisphere conditions, which is a whole new challenge. JP Pietersen will also play his 50th test this weekend and although he hasn’t crossed the chalk nearly as many times as he would’ve liked, his presence on defence and his work rate continue to see him selected each week.
Prediction
Not very often do northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere sides get to play each other twice in once season, however, with Scotland having played in the Quadrangular tournament in June in South Africa, alongside the hosts, Italy and Samoa, they will have a fair idea what to expect. South Africa have come a long way since that 30 – 17 victory and with a full season under their belt, they won’t want to trip up over the penultimate hurdle. Murrayfield hasn’t always been the happiest of hunting grounds for the Springboks, as the visitors have failed to convincingly beat the Scots since 2007. In fact, in 2010 the lost after they let Scotland get out to what would be an unassailable lead. However, the class of 2013 is far superior to the teams that have ventured there over the last few years and I expect South Africa to win quite comfortably, no matter what the weather gods might deliver.
Predicted result: South Africa to win @ $1.10 – Betfair
Best Bet: To follow once full markets have been released
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
