The full International Autumn series gets underway this weekend with no less than six Internationals taking place across Europe. This is an exciting time of the year for rugby union fans, especially given this will be the last time that southern hemisphere pundits can watch their beloved teams run around in northern hemisphere conditions before the Rugby World Cup kicks off in England next year. Last weekend, Brisbane City became the inaugural winners of the National Rugby Championship in an entertaining game at Ballymore in Brisbane that saw nine tries scored. Next up, the Wallabies secured a narrow 40 – 36 victory over the Barbarians in a thrilling encounter at Twickenham and the final match of the weekend saw Sonny Bill-Williams star for an experimental All Blacks team when they put on a clinic in a 74 – 6 victory over the USA Eagles.
Looking ahead to this week, the three southern hemisphere powerhouses, the All Blacks, Springboks and the Wallabies will face England, Ireland and Wales in crucial clashes. A number of this week’s fixtures will impact the IRB world rankings, and the true gap between the hemispheres will be determined. Last weekend, two out of my three best bets cashed for a handy profit and I am confident that my picks below will yield some winnings to play with over the next few weeks. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat. Good luck!
Best Bet 1: New Zealand -7.5 (vs England) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet (E.T.P)
Best Bet 2: Australia -3.0 (vs Wales) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet (E.T.P)
Best Bet 3: South Africa -4.5 (vs Ireland) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet (E.T.P)
E.T.P = Early twitter play
England ($3.65) vs New Zealand ($1.29)
Rugby HQ, known more commonly as Twickenham will host the blockbuster match of the round, if not of the Autumn Internationals when the hosts clash with the All Blacks in front of a packed house on Saturday. England will be looking to avenge the three losses that they received when playing the All Blacks in New Zealand in June, but history doesn’t paint a pretty picture having lost 13 of the last 14 against the world champions. The All Blacks are coming off a comprehensive 74 – 6 victory over the USA Eagles in Chicago last weekend and will be more than ready for this important clash in London.
England
As aforementioned, this Autumn International Test series is crucial for all teams involved with only as many as eight games left to play before the Rugby World Cup kicks off next September. After the All Blacks this weekend, the English face South Africa, Samoa and Australia, all teams which pose different challenges to them. I expect Rugby HQ to be buzzing this month and packed to the rafters given the importance of these matches, but Stuart Lancaster has a great squad and some solid depth at his disposal to be able to make the most of the upcoming opportunities. Lancaster named his squad during the week and I must say that it does look like a formidable one, despite some of the injury concerns they do have. Joe Marler, Dylan Hartley and David Wilson will look to put the All Blacks under pressure at scrum time and clean the Kiwi spoilers away at the breakdown. The loss of lock Joe Launchbury for all matches this month is somewhat of a concern for the home team, but Dave Atwood and Courtney Lawes add an extra degree of physicality in the second row. Tom Wood, captain Chris Robshaw and Billy Vunipola will be in for a busy afternoon and will be put under huge pressure by the best back row in the world. Danny Care is a sniping halfback that puts teams under significant pressure with quick taps and swift passing and if the English were to win, you would expect Owen Farrell needs to have a big game and kick his goals accurately. Kyle Eastmond and Brad Barrett will play in the centres and Mike Brown keeps his stranglehold on the number 15 jersey. England has also selected the Fijian-born Semesa Rokoduguni, who has qualified by right of being a serving member of the British Army. Rokoduguni is a powerful winger that plies his trade for Bath and the familiarity he will have with fellow club teammate Kyle Eastmond will give him extra confidence heading into this matchup.
New Zealand
There is no doubt that the New Zealand All Blacks are the best rugby team on the planet and probably will be considered the best team ever, more often than not. Having only lost two matches since Steve Hansen took over from the great Sir Graham Henry, it is pretty hard to critique them. In saying that, both the Springboks and the Wallabies exposed some weaknesses in their recent games against the All Blacks and the AB’s could quite possibly have experienced two losses on the trot for the first time in many, many years. However, their determination and class to get back into the game at Suncorp Stadium proved why they are the best, but they will have to be careful to not be too confident heading into the match against England this weekend. If the All Blacks are to win, I would all but write-off England’s chances of beating New Zealand at next year’s Rugby World Cup should they clash, however, if they were to lose, there would be a number of teams out there with newfound confidence to achieve what the Springboks have already done this year.
Coach Steve Hansen has selected what I believe is one of their best squads of the season for this match against England on Saturday. Wyatt Crockett, Dane Coles and Ben Franks form a settled front row with Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock two of the very best locks in the world. Captain Richie McCaw will start in what seems like his number seven jersey alongside Jerome Kaino and the always-impressive Kieran Read. Manawatu Turbos halves Aaron Smith and Aaron Cruden have been teamed up again, with Sonny Bill-Williams and Conrad Smith forming a dangerous centre partnership outside of them. Julian Savea, Ben Smith and Israel Dagg round out what looks an almost unbeatable team on paper. Furthermore, the bench also oozes experience and class as it features names like Kevin Mealamu, Liam Messam and Beauden Barrett. The leading Test points scorer Daniel Carter still remains with the squad as the coaches believe he just hasn’t had enough rugby to command a spot on this week’s team sheet.
Prediction
The English really challenged the All Blacks only a few months ago and will be seething having not come away with any wins in New Zealand. Conditions are now different and the teams have now changed, but class remains and no matter what England will throw at New Zealand, the visitors have enough class and leadership to be able to reiterate to the rugby world why they will be favourites heading into next year’s Rugby World Cup.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win @ $1.29 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 1: New Zealand -7.5 (vs England) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Wales ($2.36) vs Australia ($1.60)
The Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, one of the best rugby grounds on the planet will play host to a huge clash this weekend when the Welsh host the Wallabies in front of what should be a packed house. The Wallabies will head into this match with confidence having beaten a talented Barbarians invitational line up last weekend at Twickenham, as well as having beaten Wales the last nine times in succession. Besides a 51 – 13 thrashing of Scotland by Wales, the Red Dragons have lost three of their last four fixtures, so they will be looking to turn things around in front of a parochial crowd this weekend.
Wales
It is well known that the New Zealand-born Welsh Coach Warren Gatland doesn’t have a good record against the giants of the southern hemisphere. Having lost a staggering 24 from 25 matches, the Red Dragons will have a chance to improve that abysmal record as they face all three nations this month. Gatland named his side to take on the Wallabies on Tuesday evening. It is a rather familiar looking Welsh team with Warren Gatland staying true to his troops that succumbed to the Springboks in June. Skipper Sam Warburton, halfback Rhys Webb and Toulon’s big signing Leigh Halfpenny all return and the forward pack remains balanced and could pose the Wallabies some problems in the set piece. However, the biggest surprise was the selection of George North at outside centre. His battle with his opposite number Tevita Kuridrani is almost worth the price of admission alone and I expect the Wallabies to attack his defensive channel. Australia will also need to be careful about infringing and committing any off-the-ball indiscretions given Halfpenny’s accurate boo. I will also be interested to see how Wales’ size advantage in the backline plays out given that it hasn’t really been overly successful in the past. With matches still to come against the All Blacks, Springboks and Fiji, there match could either make or break their Autumn International series, so it is certainly one I will be watching in the early hours of Sunday morning.
Australia
As a new era begins for Australian rugby, the Spring Tour will give both players and fans alike the ability to escape from the recent off-field dramas and just get on with the game. Saturday’s match against Wales in Cardiff will be coach Michael Cheika’s first Test match in charge of his troops, with last week’s match against the Barbarians not considered a genuine Test match. Looking at the team named by Cheika this week, he will be confident that his players can get the job done. Saia Fainga’a in the front row is a weakness for me, but he will get a lot of support from James Slipper and Sekope Kepu in the front row. There is no room for James Horwill in the second row with Sam Carter and Rob Simmons given the nod and Sean McMahon will make his Wallabies debut alongside Michael Hooper and Ben McCalman. It has been a sensational year for McMahon who made his Super Rugby debut, featured in Australia’s Sevens team and captained Australia’s under 20 team. His strong ball carrying ability and his huge engine are two of his biggest strengths and it will be interesting to see how he handles the step up in class this week.
Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley continue in the halves with Brumbies Christian Leali’ifano and Tevita Kuridrani chosen to feature in the centres. Joe Tomane and Adam Ashley-Cooper will play on the left and right wings respectively with Israel Folau selected in the last line of defense. Folau has cemented himself as one of the best fullbacks in the game and as one of the better players in world rugby, the Wallabies are heavily reliant on him with Izzy playing every minute of every Test match during this calendar year. However, his inability to cross the chalk in the last six matches does concern me slightly, but he showed during this series in 2013 that he does know his way to the try line and is always a good anytime scorer bet. It is clear that Cheika will look to impose the Waratahs style of play on the Wallabies and will sacrifice pretty much anything to play a brand of rugby that receives credit and keeps the fans engaged. However, these things are easier said than done so it will be interesting to see the transformation of the Wallabies over the next five weeks. There are four Queensland Reds players on the bench in James Hanson, James Horwill, Will Genia and Quade Cooper with Will Skelton sure to make an impact with his huge frame should he be given some game time.
Prediction
Saturday’s match between Wales and Australia will be a dress rehearsal of the clash between these two teams in the pool stages of next year’s Rugby World Cup in England. Despite the Wallabies overwhelmingly decent run against Wales over the past few seasons, the matches are often very tight and a bit of individual brilliance has been the difference on a number of occasions. For me, the Wallabies are battle-hardened having just come out of The Rugby Championship and with the Welsh not having played together collectively since June, they could show signs of ring rust and fail to win the all important one percenters. Unfortunately for Wales, it won’t be a case of ‘tenth time lucky’.
Predicted result: Australia to win @ $1.60 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 2: Australia -3.0 (vs Wales) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Ireland ($2.65) vs South Africa ($1.48)
In what will be another colossal clash, Ireland will entertain the South Africa at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin on Saturday evening. Ireland are the reigning RBS 6 Nations champions having only lost the one fixture to England in 2014 and South Africa are currently hot on the heals of the All Blacks having beaten them last time out in the final match of The Rugby Championship. In recent years, both of these teams have somewhat managed to avoid each other, but the Springboks have won the last two fixtures in Ireland in closely contested matches.
Ireland
Irish rugby appears to be in good hands after a solid season to date including their first 6 Nations title since 2009 and a form line with only one loss to England (10 – 13) at Twickenham. The gruelling European season has a number of Ireland’s top players on the sidelines, with last count suggesting that as many as 15 players are unavailable including the likes of Rory Best (hooker), Cian Healy (prop) and Sean O’Brien (flanker) in the forwards and Andrew Trimble (wing) in the backs. The New Zealand-born coach Joe Schmidt has still managed to name a strong team with some tough nuts in the engine room and a back row that will really look to slow down South Africa’s ball. Jamie Heaslip will captain the team from number eight and I enjoy watching Peter O’Mahony play and I do believe he will be a part of the Ireland setup for many years to come. Jonny Sexton will play an important role this weekend at flyhalf and it was only two years ago that he made his Ireland debut off the bench against the Springboks at this very ground. Schmidt has gambled on his centre pairing by naming Robbie Henshaw and the New Zealand-born and ex-Blues player Jarred Payne to start. With only three caps between them, they may well face a baptism of fire against de Villiers and Serfontein and the Springboks will be sure to direct a lot of traffic through their channels. As a result, Gordon D’arcy has been left out of the squad, which is a surprise given the experience he does possess. Simon Zebo, Tommy Bowe and Rob Kearney are a settled back trio and I also expect the Springboks to pepper them all evening with box kicks and Handre Pollard will certainly challenge the line should the Irish be sitting on their heals.
South Africa
The Irish press believes that this is the best Springbok squad in 20 years and I have to agree with them. The squad is very balanced at the moment and with so many players due to return in 2015 and come into contention for the Rugby World Cup, things are looking positive for the Springboks. The fact that they now have a ball running flyhalf that doesn’t just stand in the pocket has given them an extra string to their bow, but the European conditions will be one of Handre Pollards final examinations ahead of the RWC. Their recent win over the All Blacks was only the second time New Zealand has been beaten since 2011, which signifies the hurdles that they had to overcome. All of those players will back up against Ireland this week and it is only the fifth time that Heyneke Meyer has been able to name an unchanged starting fifteen. In the front row, Meyer has selected the old faithful combination of Tendai Mtawawira and the du Plessis brothers. Eben Etzebeth and Victor Matfield combine in a well-balanced second row, with Teboho Mohoje retaining his spot at blindside flanker alongside the workhorse Marcell Coetzee and the stellar Duane Vermuelen. There will be a lot of pressure on Francois Hougaard and Handré Pollard in the halves, but captain Jean de Villiers will be a calming presence at inside centre. Jan Serfontein continues his education at outside centre with Cornal Hendricks, Bryan Habana and Willie le Roux rounding out the team. On the bench, big Coenie Oosthuizen replaces the injured Marcell van der Merwe and players like Adrian Strauss, Bakkies Botha, Schalk Burger, Patrick Lambie and JP Pietersen sure to make an impact.
Prediction
Although Ireland may be the form team in Europe on the back of their RBS 6 Nations victory, it is hard to bet against a Springbok side that has a great balance of youth and experience and one that has overcome many obstacles over the past couple of seasons. The All Blacks perfect season in 2013 was almost derailed at the final hurdle last year in Dublin and the Boks would’ve spent time watching that footage during the week. Although the outcome of the match will hinge on a couple of areas, the Springboks have the edge in most departments and are quietly confident, so I expect them to win by around 10 points.
Predicted result: South Africa to win @ $1.48 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 3: South Africa -4.5 (vs Ireland) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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