With the International Autumn Test series kicking off this weekend, over the next month we will witness a number of pulsating cross-hemisphere matchups between the best players from both the southern and northern hemispheres. However, before we look ahead to this weekend’s matchups, the ITM Cup finals and Currie Cup final wrapped up last weekend with the Manawatu Turbos winning the ITM Cup (Championship) and Taranaki won their first ITM Cup (Premiership) beating Tasman in an entertaining final. Over in South Africa, the Stormers used their experience to their advantage by downing the Lions in Cape Town by three points, a gap which could’ve been erased had Marnitz Boshoff kicked an injury-time sideline penalty. In saying that, it was just reward for the Stormers having failed to add substantial silverware to their cabinet since the turn of the millennium.
The action kicks off this weekend in Brisbane with the final of the inaugural NRC in Brisbane. Next up from London, when the John Kirwan-coached Barbarians host the Wallabies in what should be a strong crowd at Twickenham. The second International fixture sees the USA Eagles host the reigning world champions the All Blacks in a rare fixture in Chicago. This match is sure to increase the exposure and popularity of the game in North America and it will be interesting to see how the Eagles cope with the might of the All Blacks. Last week’s bets went three from four for another profitable weekend and I am exciting about some of the betting opportunities over the next few weeks as teams experiment further with combinations and get their squads set for a massive year in 2015. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat. Fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of rugby, before we get heavily invested in the matches that will take place next week.
Best Bet 1: Perth Spirit +1.5 (vs Brisbane City) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 2: Team A Points (Barbarians) 1st Half – Over 10.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Team A Points (Barbarians) – Over 21.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: New Zealand -57.5 (vs USA) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet (this was an early twitter play that I would now advise against given weather and I would play USA +54.5)
Brisbane City ($1.80) vs Perth Spirit ($2.00)
Ballymore, the heart and soul of Queensland rugby will host the National Rugby Championship Grand Final this weekend, when the hometown heroes, Brisbane City face off against the Perth Spirit. Both teams are littered with Super Rugby players and some of the best up and coming talent from premier grade rugby in Queensland and Western Australia. Last weekend, Brisbane City secured a come from behind victory to defeat a resolute NSW Country team 32 – 26 in Gosford and the Perth Spirit produced the upset of the season by shocking the undefeated Melbourne Rising at Aami Park.
Brisbane City:
Brisbane City was always going to be one of the better teams in the competition built on the back of an impressive back row and a powerful back line. City Coach Nick Stiles has had a good season to date and he will be hoping for a big turn out at Ballymore on Saturday evening. Stiles has named six Queensland Reds players in his starting fifteen, with another player with Super Rugby experience on the bench. The front row consists of Pettowa Paraka, Andrew Ready and Sef Faagase, all players who have made a name for themselves this season at club level. Marco Kotze and Captain David McDuling form the second row pairing in front of the best back row in the competition with the likes of Curtis Browning, Liam Gill and Jake Schatz. Nick Frisby is an impressive halfback that has unfortunately sat behind Will Genia in the pecking order at the Reds and he will pair up with Sunnybank’s Jake McIntyre in the halves. The loss of Samu Kerevi is a huge blow for City’s chances this weekend and as a result, Stiles has turned to Easts Captain Jack Mullins at inside centre and he joins up with teammate Toby White in the centres. Sunnybank is represented by two of its stars in Matt Feaunati and Brando Va’aulu in the outside backs, with Chris Kuridrani selected on the right wing.
Perth Spirit:
The Perth Spirit will make the lengthy trek to Brisbane this week surging with confidence having caused the biggest upset in the history of the competition with a strong win over the Melbourne Rising last week. The Spirit obviously enjoy playing as the underdog and they will do so again this weekend with the bookies narrowly favouring the home team. The improvement in the Spirit has been vast over the past few weeks as they only qualified for the semi-finals on the back of three regular season wins. At the end of the day, if the Spirit don’t win this weekend, I have no doubt that the game is much better off in the west because of the National Rugby Championship. Over 40 Perth-based players have been exposed to a much higher level of rugby than what they are used to and this will only benefit them in the coming seasons. Looking at the team named for the final, Pek Cowan, Robbie Abel and Oli Hoskins will pack down in the front row. Captain Sam Wykes and Brent Murphy occupy jersey four and five with Brynard Stander, Kane Koteka and Alex Rovira rounding out the forwards. Ian Prior and Zack Holmes continue their partnership in the halves with Ammon Matuauto and Solomoni Rasolea in the centres. The Spirit will field a dangerous back three consisting of South African Marcel Brache, Australian Sevens specialist Luke Morahan and former Biarritz winger Dane Haylett Petty.
Prediction:
The match at Ballymore promises to be an entertaining final with some of the best provincial rugby players in Australia on display. Bookmakers have found it hard to separate these two teams and rightly so. Perth will be high in confidence after their giant-killing efforts last week and Brisbane will be hampered by the loss of one of their best players in Samu Kerevi. Although the crowd will play some role in creating a hostile atmosphere for the visitors, I do believe the Perth-based team has enough firepower from one to fifteen to sneak out a narrow win, if they can negate the impact of the Brisbane City back row.
Predicted result: Perth Spirit to win @ $2.00 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 1: Perth Spirit +1.5 (vs Brisbane City) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet (early twitter play)
Barbarians ($8.50) vs Australia ($1.08)
Rugby HQ, also known as Twickenham, will host the first of the Autumn ‘Internationals’ this weekend in London when the star-studded Barbarians face a Wallabies outfit that is keen to turn the corner after a tumultuous last few weeks, that was capped off by a last-minute loss to the All Blacks in Brisbane. I am always excited to see the Barbarians play given that coaches select players that have an astute attacking game and often select players that are on the verge of selection or being recalled to their national setup.
The Wallabies have won the last eight matches against this invitational team including a 60 – 11 thumping last out in 2011.
Barbarians:
Nine New Zealanders feature in John Kirwan’s Barbarians to tackle the Wallabies this weekend in London. In the pack, former England International Matt Stevens will be joined by Auckland Blues teammates James Parsons and Angus Ta’avao. Crusaders big men Dominic Bird will join Captain Alastair Kellock in the second row with Adam Thomson, Matt Todd and Steven Luatua listed from six to eight. Matt Todd would easily have played more Test matches for the All Blacks if it weren’t for the great one in Richie McCaw. The same went for Chris Whittaker when George Gregan was around. Argentinian scrumhalf Tomas Cubelli will start at halfback alongside the Bledisloe Cup 3 iceman, Colin Slade. Francis Saili and the recent Currie Cup winning Captain Juan de Jong will partner in the centres with Nick Cummins, Frank Halai and Tim Nanai-Williams forming a potent back three. The bench is littered with a bunch of southern hemisphere livewires including the likes of Heinrich Brussow, Sarel Pretorius and Jacquin Tuculet and I expect them to get a fair bit of game time.
Australia:
Michael Cheika has made a number of changes to the team that ran out against the All Blacks two weeks ago for his first match in charge of the Wallabies. Given that this matchup doesn’t qualify as an International fixture, Cheika has exercised the right to experiment with some combinations and has named four players to start their first match for the Wallabies in 2014. First and foremost, Matt Hodgson of the Western Force has been handed the captaincy armband, which is a great reward for a player that has had such a stellar provincial career. Benn Robinson, Saia Fainga’a and Ben Alexander form what I consider to be a weakened front row, with former Wallabies Captain James Horwill and the youngster Sam Carter in the second row. Matt Hodgson will occupy the number seven jersey and he will be joined by the dynamic Scott Higginbotham and Ben McCalman, another player who has never really cemented a spot in Australia’s first 15. Queenslanders will be happy with the selection of Will Genia and Quade Cooper in the halves and they will operate inside of Matt Toomua and Tevita Kuridrani. On the wings, Rob Horne will partner Henry Speight who will be playing for the first time in the gold jersey and both of them will look to feed off the attacking impetus of Israel Folau at fullback. Cheika has stacked the bench with experience and class with the likes of James Slipper, Sekope Kepu, Will Skelton and Christian Leali’ifano just to name a few. 2014 has also seen the rise of Rebels flanker Sean McMahon who should also receive his first minutes in the national setup.
Prediction:
It doesn’t come as much of a surprise that the Barbarians haven’t beaten the Wallabies since 1976, given that the team often has very little time to prepare and the combinations usually lack cohesiveness. In saying that, they do play a great brand of rugby and with many fringe players selected in their line up, they will be well and truly out and rub salt into the current Wallabies wounds. It could be said that the Wallabies are their own worst enemies at the moment, but I can see them pulling together this week, much like they did against the All Blacks in Brisbane, and putting together a performance that they will be satisfied with.
Predicted result: Wallabies to win @ $1.08 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Team A Points (Barbarians) 1st Half – Over 10.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Team A Points (Barbarians) – Over 21.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
United States of America ($31.00) vs New Zealand ($)
This weekend, the United States of America Eagles will clash with the New Zealand All Blacks in an historic matchup at a sold out Solider Field in Chicago, Illinois. With the match being broadcasted live on NBC, it speaks volumes of the growing popularity of rugby in the United States and it is the first time these two will play on American soil since 1913, a match in which the All Blacks won 51 – 3 in Berkeley, California. The last time these two nations met was at the 1991 Rugby World Cup, where the All Blacks dominated 46 – 6.
USA:
United States Coach Mike Tolkin has selected what some would say as a strong Eagles side to face the mighty All Blacks this weekend. Three Aviva Premiership players (Samu Manoa – Lock from Northhampton, Eric Fry – Prop from Newcastle Falcons, Hayden Smith – lock from Saracens) have been included in the tight five and these players will no doubt bring confidence to the players who ply their trade in the US club competition. Todd Clever has been named as Captain of the Eagles and it will be a memorable day for him given that he credits his playing days in New Zealand for developing him into the back rower that he is today. Another player to watch out for is Danny Barrett, who is a rampaging number eight that has made a name for himself in the Sevens game. In the backs, there are a number of other Sevens player, but winger Blaine Scully is probably the pick of the potential try-scorers for the home side having also spent part of his career in the UK.
New Zealand:
Coach Steve Hansen has named the All Blacks least experienced team in five years, with many pundits referring to it as the ‘B’ team for the match against the Eagles this weekend. All in all, there are twelve changes with an entirely new forward pack selected except for the reining IRB Player of the Year, Kieran Read, who will captain the team from number eight. The front row of Joe Moody, Nathan Charles and Charlie Faumauina is experimental if anything and certainly one that won’t be facing England next weekend. Jeremy Thrush and Patrick Tuipulotu continue to battle it out for the reserve lock spot each week, however, on Saturday they find themselves in the starting 15. Victor Vito, Sam Cane and the aforementioned Kieran Read form a dangerous back row and one that might become more familiar to casual viewers after the 2015 Rugby World Cup. TJ Perenara will partner Aaron Cruden in the halves with the latter being recalled to the team for the first time since being sanctioned for missing the team’s flight to Argentina earlier this season. Sonny Bill-Williams returns to the 15-man game for the first time since 2011 and he will line up alongside Ryan Crotty in the centres with Charles Piutau, Cory Jane and Israel Dagg selected in the outside backs. On the bench, there is no room for tour captain Richie McCaw, however, with the likes of Kevin Mealamu, Ben Franks, Brodie Retallick, Daniel Carter and Julian Savea, there is more than enough leadership and class and I expect the Eagles to get blown away in the second half.
Prediction:
Although the All Blacks haven’t selected their best fifteen, it would take a brave punter to bet against them given their rich history and their consistency at the top of world rugby. In what will be a huge day for the game of rugby union in North America, even though the All Blacks might not fire on all cylinders due to a lack of combinations and potentially some jet lag, they will still cruise to an easy win, adopt some new fans and further strengthen their brand as one of the strongest in world sport.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win at a canter
Best Bet 4: New Zealand -57.5 (vs USA) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet (early twitter play)
* The rain has thrown a spanner into the works and I would probably go with the USA +54.5 that is on offer now.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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