Autumn Internationals – Week 1 Preview

 

The international rugby season winds down this month with a number of pulsating fixtures involving both tier one and tier two nations. The Autumn Internationals kick off this weekend with three fixtures when the almost unbeatable All Blacks travel to Tokyo to play Japan, England host an Australian team that is starting to grow in confidence and Canada host the New Zealand Mãori. The stage is set for a fascinating month of rugby that sees more international fixtures than any other stage during the year, so make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat. Good luck this weekend!

 

Japan vs. New Zealand

Best Bet 1: New Zealand -47.5 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet

 

Best Bet 2: Beauden Barrett to score a try @ $1.83 – Sportsbet

 

England vs. Australia:  

Best Bet 3: Team B (Australia) 1st Half Total OVER 8.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet

 

Best Bet 4: Team B (Australia) Total Tries OVER 1.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet

 

Please note: Canada versus New Zealand Mãori Preview to follow… 

 

Japan ($51.00) versus New Zealand ($1.002) 

The Autumn Internationals will kick off at the Prince Chichibu Memorial Rugby Stadium in Tokyo when the rugby ‘minnows’ Japan welcome the might and power of the all-conquering All Blacks. The Japanese Rugby Football Union (JRFU) and the New Zealand Rugby Union (NZRU) have had a long-standing relationship, however despite this, they have only clashed on four occasions (twice in 1987, 1995 and 2011). The All Blacks begin their final campaign of the year on their quest for a perfect season (undefeated), however, last year’s drubbing to the English will be prevalent in their minds and they’ll want to return the favour at Twickenham this year. Conversely, Japan has had a mixed season with three wins and three losses, but you would expect that from a developing team and they’ll know that their match against New Zealand won’t be an easy proposition, but one that will accurately gauge where they current are at in world rugby. Additionally, Japan has won the rights to host the Rugby World Cup in 2019, so playing the All Blacks and other tier one nations will only hold them in good stead moving forwards.

 

Japan

Japanese rugby has come on in leaps and bounds over the past few years thanks largely to more experienced coaches (Eddie Jones) and a thriving local competition (Top League) that lures in some of the best players in world rugby. The exposure the local players get playing alongside the likes of Jerome Kaino, George Smith and Fourie du Preez just to name a few is invaluable. This year, Super Rugby saw the debuts of two Japanese stars in the lively scrumhalf Fumiaki Tanaka (Highlanders) and burly hooker Shota Horie (Rebels). Without a doubt, Japanese Rugby’s finest moment eventuated in Tokyo this year when they managed to defeat a depleted Welsh team 23 – 8 to square their series in June. With the British & Irish Lions concurrently touring Australia at the time, Wales fielded a relatively inexperienced team and they were made to pay, particularly by some of Japan’s foreign-born players in Craig Wing, Hedrik Tui and Michael Broadhurst. Local players Fumiaki Tanaka and fullback Ayumu Goromaru also put up spirited performances against more physical opposition and consequently, the levels of public interest in the game have skyrocketed.

 

In rather sad news, current Japanese head coach Eddie Jones suffered a stroke two weeks ago and will not be in charge of Japan in this week’s historic clash. Former Wallabies skills coach Scott Wisemantel has taken over the reins as interim coach for this week’s matchup and the impending European tour. Wisemantel has had the luxury of naming a full-strength squad for this matchup and given their overall objective of breaking into the top ten teams in world rugby by 2015, their mettle and skillsets will be put to the test this weekend. Fumiaki Tanaka is a lively scrumhalf who boasts rapid service from the base of the breakdowns and his decision-making has improved thanks to his tenure in Super Rugby with the Highlanders and working closely with incumbent All Black’s halfback Aaron Smith.

 

New Zealand

The New Zealand All Blacks, one of the most successful teams in world sport have had a stellar season to date and are currently riding a ten-match win streak. They were in this exact same position last year, only to come unstuck against England in the final match of their season at Twickenham. Although they will be looking for revenge in two weeks time, coach Steve Hansen has insisted that his team front up this weekend and kick their tour off with a positive start. In 2013, New Zealand has cemented their position at the top of the IRB World Rankings and with the Rugby World Cup only two years away, the All Blacks will want to continue to improve and finish off the year with a perfect record. Mr Consistent, Conrad Smith has been granted a sabbatical and although his leadership and experience will be missed, the All Blacks have the opportunity to groom someone should Smith succumb to a serious injury at some point over the next two years. Ben Smith will start at outside centre for the second consecutive match and it will be interesting to see if he can reproduce his try-scoring form in the number 13 jersey over the next few weeks.

 

As a continuation of development and squad rotation, coach Steve Hansen has named an experimental team to face the Cherry Blossoms this weekend. It will be the All Blacks first official test on Japanese soil, but not the last with the build up to the 2019 Rugby World Cup. The team has been built around stalwarts Richie McCaw and Daniel Carter who returns from injury, but Saturday’s test will be most memorable for rampaging winger Frank Halai and the skyscraper Dominic Bird whom will both earn their first international caps. Another of the Whitelock quartet, Luke and consistent Wellington prop Jeffery Toomaga-Allen are also in line for their first national appearances should they receive some time off the bench. It is by far and away the All Blacks most inexperience squad for many years, however, the team is jam packed with game breakers with the backline consisting of Francis Saili and Ben Smith in the centres and Frank Halai will be joined by the incisive Charles Piutau and try-scoring machine Beauden Barrett to round up the outside backs. If these combinations aren’t powerful enough, the All Blacks pack features form Super Rugby players and recent All Blacks Jeremy Thrush, Steven Luatua and Dane Coles. The rangy Luatua packs down at blindside flanker and Sam Cane’s recent performances have shifted All Black’s great and captain Richie McCaw to number eight. It will only be his second test in this position in 120 matches, however, given his rugby nous, leadership and the invaluable experience he brings to the team, he is sure to be a constant menace at the breakdown.

 

Prediction

Both teams will run out to a packed stadium in Tokyo, with the home of Japanese rugby selling out for the first time in history. Japanese rugby has come on in leaps and bounds over the past few seasons, but they would need nothing short of a miracle to beat the All Blacks this weekend. The last time these two teams met was in New Zealand at the Rugby World Cup in 2011. The All Blacks recorded an 83 – 7 victory en route to winning the Cup. New Zealand are a polished outfit that do the fancy stuff well and the basics even better, and despite their experimental line up, nothing short of a 50+ point victory for the visitors would be considered a successful start to their tour.

 

Predicted result:  New Zealand to win @ $1.002 – Bet365

Best Bet 1:  New Zealand -47.5 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet

Best Bet 2: Beauden Barrett to score a try @ $1.83 – Sportsbet

 

England (1.85) versus Australia ($2.36) 

Twickenham has seen a number of enthralling contests over the years and this weekend will be no exception as England host one of their biggest rivals, the Wallabies. The hosts toured Argentina with a depleted squad in June and trounced the locals in both fixtures. These were two much needed wins after finishing a close second on points differential in this year’s RBS 6 Nations. The Wallabies on the other hand haven’t had an ideal season succumbing to the British & Irish Lions (2-1) and only managed to pick up two wins in The Rugby Championship for a season record of four wins and seven losses. However, Australia will gain some confidence out of their most recent fixture against the All Blacks in Dunedin where they managed to run in three tries in a 41 – 33 loss. Although the Wallabies line up is significantly different to the last time these two nations met, the Wallabies won the corresponding fixture in 2012, 20 – 14 on the back of an impressive display by Berrick Barnes and a first half try through Nick Cummins. The Wallabies are in a similar position this year as they were back then, having had an ordinary Rugby Championship campaign and feeling the wrath of a French hammering (6 – 33) the week before.

 

England

As aforementioned, England have only lost one fixture this year, but it was a comprehensive loss to Wales that saw the home team defend their RBS 6 Nations crown in March. After impressively ending the All Blacks win streak last year with a 38 – 21 victory, they have continued to build and are a team that will certainly pose a huge threat to their southern hemisphere rivals at their home World Cup in 2015. Their Autumn International program sees vital clashes against three Rugby Championship teams, the Wallabies, Argentina and New Zealand. England will be without five of their triumphant British & Irish Lions stars this weekend with their uncompromising centres Manu Tuilagi and Brad Barritt, prop Alex Corbisiero, two-time Lions tourist Tom Croft and lineout ace Geoff Parling all unavailable through injury. However, with players like Billy Vunipola, Lee Dickson and Mike Brown picked for this fixture, it is evident that coach Stuart Lancaster is rewarding early season domestic form.

 

Traditionally, England has selected a massive pack to dominate the set-piece, however, this week’s line up appears to be more balanced and as a result, they will be able to compete in all key performance areas. The front row of Mako Vunipola, Tom Youngs and Dan Cole were all Lions tourists and they will make it their responsibility to give their opposing numbers a torrid time in the scrums. England’s enforcer Courtney Lawes has been reinstated into the line up for only the second time since the RWC 2011 in New Zealand courtesy of some solid Aviva Premiership and Heineken Cup form for the Northampton Saints. The back row of Wood, Robshaw (captain) and Billy Vunipola looks solid and they will need to keep Michael Hooper out of the game as much as they possibly can. It must be said though that the backline is largely inexperienced with an average of 12 caps and England’s success could very well be determined by how flyhalf and son of England’s assistant coach, Owen Farrell controls proceedings. His exposure against the Wallabies for the Lions will be telling and these next few weeks could really see Farrell take things to a new level (or conversely, go backwards). Joel Tomkins will make his international debut at outside centre and he will need to call upon all of his rugby league experience in terms of defensive play to nullify a potent Wallabies backline.

 

Australia

Very few pundits would’ve picked Australia to be this ‘bad’ this year, but over the next few weeks they have a chance to restore some faith in the team and restore some pride in the sacred gold jersey. In my eyes, only two players have really stood out this year: Michael Hooper and Israel Folau. Michael Hooper had big boots to fill when David Pocock went down injured in Super Rugby, but he has made the number seven jersey his own this year and it will take some almighty performances by the latter to replace him next year. Similarly, with a number of outside backs injured or not playing for disciplinary reasons (James O’Connor and Kurtley Beale) Israel Folau has cemented his name on the team sheet like many thought he would. The tri-code convert has made a remarkable impact on not only the Wallabies but also the game of rugby itself, scoring seven tries in ten fixtures, including a hat trick against Argentina in Rosario.

 

The most startling news from Ewen McKenzie’s match day 22 was stripping James Horwill of the captaincy and announcing the enigmatic Quade Cooper as vice-captain. Brumbies back rower Ben Mowen will play with the (C) next to his name which is just reward for some consistent performances for both club and country. McKenzie has voiced his concerns over James Horwill’s form and relinquishing the captaincy responsibilities for a short period of time might just be the catalyst needed for him to reproduce performances that are reminiscent of RWC 2011. There are two changes in the pack with the bruiser Sitaleki Timani replacing an injured Rob Simmons and Scott Fardy replaces Ben McCalman. The front row remains the same, which will only provide them with more confidence after a much-improved scrumming display against the world champions in Dunedin two weeks ago. The backline remains the same apart from Peter Betham being replaced by the woolly-haired Nick ‘honey badger’ Cummins. What most fans will be grateful for is another chance to witness Quade Cooper and his partner-in-crime Will Genia. Both players have shown glimpses of what they are capable of in recent weeks and McKenzie will know from his experience at the Reds that when both of these players fire, the team usually wins.

 

Prediction

Rugby HQ will be atmospherically ecstatic on Saturday evening when the mother country faces the ‘convicts’ in a dress rehearsal of the vital Pool A match at the IRB Rugby World Cup 2015 in England. It will be the first match of the Autumn Internationals that examines the gap between the northern and southern hemispheres and given the Wallabies ordinary season to date, the home side will be playing their first fixture with a ‘full compliment’ of players since February. England currently sits third in the IRB world rankings, however, should they lose to the Wallabies this weekend, they will be overtaken by the men in gold adding extra spice to the contest. This is a match that is hard to predict and could really go either way. England is fresh but potentially rusty, whereas the Wallabies are looking to build on their strong display against the All Blacks in Bledisloe 3. Overcast conditions will greet the players and with a chance of rain, the battle between the forward packs will be crucial, but I think Australia will just scrape through in a physical contest.

 

Predicted result:  Australia to win @ $2.36 – Betfair 

 

Best Bet 3: Team B (Australia) 1st Half Total OVER 8.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet

 

Best Bet 4: Team B (Australia) Total Tries OVER 1.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Author

Glenn

Glenn has followed rugby union for 19 years and has expert knowledge on the game freely committing to over 500 viewing hours a year. Having played with and against some current Super Rugby players and International superstars, he understands the game, the players and the laws inside out. Having been born in South Africa, spent time in New Zealand and currently living in Australia, Glenn lives and breathes rugby. With so many different tournaments happening around the world simultaneously and the addition of Rugby Sevens to the Olympic program, there are always plenty of healthy betting options available. An obsession, a passion, call it what you will, Glenn enjoys sharing his insight, opinions and predictions with anyone who wants to listen.

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