Mother’s Day turned out to be a good day to keep your money under the mattress, as the Toronto Raptors and Portland Trail Blazers scored upsets in their respective series. Today’s “Play of the Day” focuses on Game 4 in Oklahoma City, with the San Antonio Spurs holding a 2-1 series lead. Can the Thunder level the series or will the Spurs draw within one win of a place in the Conference Finals?
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder
After a blowout in Game 1, this series has tightened up in a hurry and defensive pressure has been the order of the day. There’s been a solid move toward the Thunder in results markets for this game but The Big Dog has seen too much to feel comfortable picking against the San Antonio Spurs in a big game. Instead, the total points line appears to be where some profit can be made. The wide margin in the first match saw a drop in overall intensity and a total of 216 points but much tighter contests in games two and three have produced 195 and 196 points. Unders has been a solid play all season, in games involving the Spurs. San Antonio have put together an all-time great defensive season, leading the NBA through the regular season by allowing just 92.9 points per game. They have held the Thunder, the second-most potent offence in the league (110.2 points per game) under 100 points in five of seven matches, this season. The Spurs will know that the key to taking a 3-1 lead in this conference semi final is going to be locking down on the defensive end and doing so is such an established part of their team identity that it would be a shock to see anything else. Expect to see a very similar scoreline to Game 2 and Game 3, with this match still well-and-truly in the balance down the stretch.
Selection
Under 198.5 (Total) @ $1.90 (bet365)
Tools
Results Spreadsheet
