The Big Dog was ushered into the weekend by a profitable Friday, with two wins from three tips. A good day was only three Jimmy Butler points from being a great day… but given how easily James Harden and Kings/Lakers went over their total points lines, forgiveness can be afforded. 33 was The Big Dog’s number, as Harden dropped 33 points against the Jazz and the Kings played in their second consecutive match that came to a points total of 233. More importantly, this time they would avoid overtime and win… with The Big Dog happily on overs. Lots of action awaits us on a 10-game Saturday and with so much to choose from, a top five have made the cut.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Kyrie Irving is back… and so, it seems, is the most terrifying version of the Cavaliers offence. The star point guard, who broke his patella in Game 1 of the 2015 NBA Finals, has poured in 57 points (24/38 from the field) in the last two games. Cleveland have won both contests, while scoring a combined 243 points. While putting up 121 points against the defence ranked 23rd in the league (Washington) isn’t a complete shock, it’s the 122 points against the 4th-best defensive team (Toronto) that really makes The Big Dog stop and take notice. The Raptors only allow an average of 96.9 points and limit their opposition to 43.5 percent shooting. The Cavs shot 55.4 percent and had six players in double-figures for points. Today they travel to Minnesota, to face a Timberwolves team who have lost eight of their last nine games and allowed at least 107 points in 10 of their last 14 losses, however they are coming off one of the lowest-scoring games in recent memory, a 78-74 loss in Denver. In spite of this, Cleveland should have little trouble scoring against Minnesota and their team points line looks like easy pickings.
Selection
Over 103.5 (Cleveland Cavaliers Points) @ $1.85 (Luxbet)
Dallas Mavericks @ Milwaukee Bucks
After one of the toughest performances in the history of the franchise, the now-refreshed Dallas Mavericks travel to play a team they have not lost to in the last six meetings… as underdogs…? Deron Williams provided the last-second heroics in a double-overtime thriller against the Kings but was one of four regular starters coach Rick Carlisle chose to rest the next night, when the team travelled to New Orleans. The patchwork unit was installed as justifiable nine-point dogs for that game but pulled away in the second half to beat the struggling Pelicans, 100-91. Now rested and presumably full of confidence, Dallas head to Milwaukee knowing the importance of winning their next two games, before the start of a very unkind stretch in their schedule. After today’s game and a visit to Minnesota on Sunday, the Mavericks play Cleveland at home, followed by Oklahoma City, Chicago and San Antonio, all on the road. It’s hard to explain why the Bucks are favourites with the bookies, aside from the fact that this game is at Bradley Center. Dallas have an advantage in average points scored (+4.0), points allowed (-2.8), rebounds (+3.5) and turnovers (-1.8). To top it off, the Mavericks are one win above .500 on the road and 21-15 overall, while the Bucks are two wins over .500 at home but only 14-23 overall. Dallas are simply the better team… and when the better team is installed as an underdog, you know The Big Dog will be all over it.
Selection
Dallas Mavericks (Head-to-Head) @ $1.95 (William Hill)
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
Picking the 31-6 San Antonio Spurs to do anything remotely impressive is hardly a difficult decision and it certainly isn’t today. The NBA’s model of consistency are 21-0 at home and currently on their third streak of six wins or more, for the season. Although all the talk is about their defensive numbers, which a simply mind-boggling, they’ve quietly also become the 6th-best attacking side in the league. They score a (rising) average of 103.7 points per game and are the third most efficient team on the offensive end, scoring 108.4 points per 100 possessions. The Spurs travel to Madison Square Garden on the back of three straight games where they have scored over 120 and have not scored less than 101 in their last sixteen victories, including eight games where they scored at least 112. Coach Popovich has even had the luxury of being able to rotate his stars out of the lineup for rest and recovery purposes, without any negative impact on their offensive production. It’s impossible to say that the Spurs won’t be 22-0 at home, after this game and the Knicks have allowed over 105 points to be scored against them in five of their last nine losses. New York may have looking impressive in a pair of wins over the Hawks, recently… but this should be business as usual for a rolling San Antonio.
Selection
Over 104.5 (San Antonio Spurs Points) @ $1.81 (Luxbet)
Miami Heat @ Phoenix Suns
The Big Dog is going to keep this one VERY quick… and you will see why. At the time of writing these tips, Luxbet is offering a team points line on the Miami Heat of 91.5… while the same line for the Phoenix Suns is 104.5. This is in spite of the Heat being strong favourites to win the match, both Head-to-Head and against a five-point spread. The Suns have lost nine of their last ten and not allowed less than 97 points since beating the Pelicans 104-88 on December 18th. Meanwhile, the Heat have not scored less than 92 in any of their 21 wins. You can draw your own conclusions about the state of this market… but get it while it’s red-hot!
Selection
Over 91.5 (Miami Heat Points) @ $1.89 (Luxbet)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers
The final tip of the day should be fun to watch… unless you’re a fan of good defensive pressure on both ends. The Thunder are humming along on the offensive end, scoring 108.6 points a night (ranked behind only the Warriors), with seven winning scores of 120 or more. They have already played the Lakers twice this season, scoring a combined 238 points at and shooting over 54 percent from the field. They go into this game as overwhelming favourites and have not scored less than 100 points in a win, since December 11th. The Lakers fought back from 27 down against the Sacramento Kings, in yesterday’s game, to take the lead with under four minutes to go but eventually lost 118-115. They have allowed their opponent to score no less than 107 in ten of their last eleven losses overall and five of their last seven losses, when they played the previous night. Another big margin is a very real possibility but the most reliable aspect of this game appears to be a big team score by the Thunder.
Selection
Over 112.5 (Oklahoma City Thunder Points) @ $1.88 (Luxbet)
