The Big Dog is looking to bounce back in a big way, after yesterday produced some wild results, all over the NBA. Not only did the Mavericks literally throw the game away in regulation and the Raptors capitulate on a ten-point lead at three-quarter time, the Warriors were also blown out by the Lakers and the Suns won on the road. The working theory is that this might just have accounted for a week’s worth of unpredictable outcomes, so it should be smooth sailing for the next few days. Ah… if only things were so simple… Nevertheless, The Big Dog has found plenty of value in another seven-game card and it’s no surprise that the “Play of the Day” involves the defending NBA Champions bouncing back in emphatic style.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Charlotte Hornets
Since the Carolina Panthers lost the Superbowl, the Charlotte Hornets have won eight of ten, providing a much-needed morale boost to local sports fans. This run has seen them climb back to the sixth seed in the East, only one game behind the Atlanta Hawks. They are one of six remaining teams who have lost less than ten games on their home floor (21-9) and today host the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are one of seven teams still looking for a tenth win on the road (9-22). The Hornets have been a far better team at home, all season and have continued that trend in recent games, with their current four-game streak at Time Warner Cable Arena including a 17-point win over the Bulls and a 34-point demolition of the Suns. After a rare road win over the New Orleans Pelicans, Minnesota have dropped their last two away games, to the Bucks and Mavericks, by a combined 42 points. With only one of these teams in the playoff picture, there’s no reason to think the result will be close.
Selection
Charlotte Hornets 11+ (Margin) @ $2.00 (William Hill)
Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans
In a game where defence is likely to be a bit of an afterthought, the New Orleans Pelicans aim to halt a four-game skid while continuing the misery for the Sacramento Kings, who have lost five of their last six. Despite a terrible overall record (23-38), the Pelicans have been competitive at home (16-14), while the Kings remain one of the poorer road teams in the Western Conference (11-20). Getting off to a fast start will be a goal for the Pelicans, even if doing so lately hasn’t translated into wins. New Orleans has won four of their last five opening quarters, while Sacramento have been stumbling out of the gate, losing five opening terms and drawing one, over their last six. Curiously, Luxbet have the Kings favoured to win the opening quarter and the Pelicans favoured in each of the next three. The Big Dog thinks the game has every likelihood of flowing in the opposite direction and the odds for New Orleans to go to the first break with an advantage are too good to ignore.
Selection
New Orleans Pelicans -0.0 (1st Qtr Line) @ $1.92 (Luxbet)
Orlando Magic @ Golden State Warriors
The Los Angeles Lakers pulled off the biggest upset of the 2015-16 season, with an all-the-way 112-95 win over the Golden State Warriors. In the process of handing the defending champs just their sixth loss of the season, they also appear to have thrown the Orlando Magic under the bus. The Warriors are yet to lose consecutive games and their five wins after a loss have come by and average of 16.8 points. On the two occasions they’ve played at home after a loss, they have won by margins of 25 and 18. The game totals in matches following losses has averaged out to be a huge 225.2 and given that the Magic have not conceded less than 102 points in a loss since February 10th, another high score seems more than likely. Recent history between these two sides also lends itself to a big result. Steph Curry was at his brilliant best, scoring 51 points in a 130-114 victory in Orlando, on February 25th. All signs point to a result that may be very similar to that one. This play is exceptional value and clearly the “Play of the Day”.
Selection
Golden State Warriors -13.5/Over 225.5 (Line/Total Points) @ $3.60 (Luxbet)
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