It seems as though there have been a lot of days over the last month that fall into the category of “What might have been”… and yesterday was another of those. After Dwayne Wade came through in the clutch, forcing overtime and eventually propelling the Miami Heat to a 103-100 win, the Utah Jazz choked on an 8-point lead at three-quarter time and lost to the Rockets by two. These are the 50-50 results that have gone against The Big Dog more often than not… but it’s a long season and these things tend to even themselves out, over the long run. Shifting focus to today’s action, there are a remarkable 13 players listed as a “Game-time decision”, leading into three of the four games on the card. It’s an amazing and somewhat frustrating number that does an effective job of steering The Big Dog away from results markets. So Wednesday is all about points totals.
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks lead the season series 2-1, heading into the final game of four but are in a position of having to rebound from a 14-point loss in the most recent meeting. All three games so far in this season series have been decided by double-digit margins, with the winning team scoring a minimum of 111 points and shooting at least 50-percent from the floor. The performance by the New York Knicks in Sunday afternoon’s 111-97 win was extremely impressive and even though this game is in Atlanta, the short turnaround enhances the need to be wary of a repeat. At the same time, the Knicks are a very inconsistent side (16-19) and the +8 doesn’t offer the comfort that it should, considering that the first two games between these two teams went to the Hawks, by 13 and 19 points. The most interesting thing about this series and the aspect that caught The Big Dog’s eye, is the game totals and their relationship to the over/under lines. All three games have gone over and the line of 203.0 for this game is half a point less than the line for Sunday’s game, that finished with a total of 208 points. Atlanta’s last four home games (all wins) have also finished with at least 203 points. It’s entirely possible that today’s line has been influenced by the Knicks’ last away game, a 108-81 loss in Chicago, where New York scored only eight points in the final quarter. Either way, all signs here point to overs and a continuation of a clear trend between these two opponents.
Selection
Over 202.5 (Total Game Score) @ $1.91 (William Hill)
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls
Under Tom Thibodeau, the Chicago Bulls established a very clear identity as a defensive-minded team who didn’t mind averaging 95 points a night, so long as their opponents were averaging less. Now under the guidance of Fred Hoiberg, the Bulls have started to become much more effective on the offensive end. Hoiberg’s goal of increasing the tempo they play at as seen their pace increase from 95.4 possessions per game, last season, to 98.8 this season. Initially this had a detrimental effect on the team’s offensive efficiency but recent results have shown that this is beginning to work itself out. Chicago have scored at least 102 points in their last seven games and gone 5-2 in that time, with four of those games finishing over today’s line of 201.5 total points and another two going just half a point under. Their opponents, the Milwaukee Bucks, appear to be a team that allows the opposition to determine whether the game score is high or low. In nine of the twelve games played against teams ranked above Chicago (10th) in the league for pace, the game total has exceeded 200 points. This is in spite of the Bucks ranking near the bottom of the NBA in pace (26th) but can certainly be attributed in some way to their ranking in defensive efficiency (28th). Milwaukee have struggled to stop teams scoring, giving up an averages of 103.6 points per night and 106.6 points per 100 possessions. They are also one of the worst road teams in the league (5-15), which doesn’t look great when they have to face a Chicago team that is aiming for four straight wins at home and demolished New York with a 43-14 closing run, in their last game at United Center. The Bucks may have won three of their last five away games but this looks like an almighty task. Perhaps the most interesting stat here is that the Bulls have only won three games at home by more than nine points, which makes the spread of -8.5 extremely dangerous but equally draws the eye of The Big Dog to the 1-10 margin play, especially with Milwaukee showing some gradual improvement.
Selection #1
Over 202.0 (Total Points) @ $1.93 (Luxbet)
Selection #2
Chicago Bulls 1-10 (Margin) @ $2.90 (William Hill)
Sacramento Kings @ Dallas Mavericks
Of the 13 players to be listed as a “Game-time decision” today, six of them come from this game. That big of an injury cloud is likely to impact more than just who wins this game and the size of the final margin. The total points line was always going to be set high, thanks to the Kings offensive production being off the charts recently… but games against the Mavericks are not usually happy nights for the Kings. Especially not at American Airlines Center. Dallas will aim to extend its home winning streak over the Kings to 22 games and had won 21 of 23 in the overall series, before a 112-98 loss in Sacramento, on November 30th. Only three of the sixteen games played in Dallas this season have come to a points total of over 214, while nine of sixteen Kings road games have gone over the same mark, including five of seven when playing the closing leg of a back-to-back. However, with so many players in doubt, there could be a significant impact on rhythm and offensive flow, especially for Sacramento and with Dallas focused on extending their dominance over the visitors, this line looks too high. Expect the Mavericks to try slowing the pace of the game, to nullify the Kings in transition, which will be a big contributor to unders at this mark.
Selection
Under 214.0 (Total Points) @ $1.92 (Luxbet)
