It’s fair to say that The Big Dog was pleased with his decision to stay in the kennel yesterday, with the Wizards overcoming the absence of almost their entire front-court rotation to beat the Suns and the Pelicans scoring a huge win in overtime, against the Cavaliers. With ten games slated for today, we’re back in the mix with two quality plays.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat
LeBron James knows a little bit about how the Heat have dominated the Cavaliers in Miami, over recent seasons. In fact, he was responsible for most of it. As a member of “The Big Three”, James helped the Heat to seven straight home wins against the Cavs. Since LeBron returned to Cleveland, Dwayne Wade has played a huge role in extending the streak to nine. The home team has won the last five contests between these two franchises and the Heat should feel pretty confident about their chances of continuing that trend, with Cleveland coming off a 114-108 overtime loss to the New Orleans Pelicans. That loss dropped the Cavaliers below .500 on the road (4-5) and out of top spot in both the Eastern Conference and the Central Division. Meanwhile, the Heat’s home record of 9-3 ranks 5th in the NBA, thanks mainly to a defence that is second in the league and allowing only 92.6 points per night. They have only allowed Cleveland to score 91 and 92 points in the last two games at American Airlines Arena, winning those games by 10 and 14 points, despite the visitors getting a combined 56 points from LeBron. His efforts were eclipsed by Dwayne Wade, who scored 63 points to go with 7 steals. Wade appears to be in the right form for this game, scoring 58 points on 51.1% shooting, over his last two games. The biggest single factor that may assist the Cavaliers is the continued absence of Luol Deng, who would have been the match-up for LeBron James, with a hamstring injury. The tandem of Gerald Green and Justise Winslow, who did the job on Kevin Durant in a 97-95 win, will again have that responsibility. The good news for them is that LeBron played 45 minutes against the Pelicans and looked clearly exhausted during overtime. As brilliant as he was, it will be too much to ask for another effort like that, within 24 hours. This places the spotlight on a perpetually under-performing supporting cast, who contributed a measly six points during the last 11:52 of the game. King James will give all he’s got… but the red light will be flashing on the fuel gauge for much of the night. Miami to win… and a fairly comfortable margin will not surprise.
Selection
Miami Heat (-1.5) @ $1.95 (William Hill)
Orlando Magic @ Los Angeles Clippers
Just quietly, the Orlando Magic have won five in a row, including their first two of a five-game road trip. That streak of five victories is second only to that team from Golden State, as far as current form is concerned. To make it six on the trot, the Magic will have to get through a Clippers team that is without any real consistency… and their starting backcourt. Chris Paul is certain to be out as he recovers from a rib injury, while J.J. Redick is likely to be unavailable, after spraining his ankle during the first possession of the Clippers’ 103-91 loss to Indiana. Being without their leaders for assists, steals and three-point shooting is hardly ideal, given the way Orlando have been defending over the last five games. The Magic have stifled opponents recently, allowing 91.8 points a game on 40.1% shooting. That’s more bad news for Los Angeles, who are coming off a 38.0% shooting night, against the Pacers. Blake Griffin was unable to carry the increased burden, scoring 19 points on 6 of 18 from the field. By contrast, Orlando had six players contribute between 14 and 17 points, as they scored a 103-94 win in Utah. The move by coach Scott Skiles to make Victor Oladipo the Magic’s sixth man appears to have been a masterstroke. Oladipo is scoring a team-high 17.4 points and Orlando have not lost since the adjustment. Surprisingly, the Magic also have a significant team rebounding advantage over the Clippers (+4.0), in spite of DeAndre Jordan ranking second in the league, with 13.2 boards per game. With their more balanced attack and vastly improved attitude on the defensive end, The Big Dog thinks that the bookies are again grossly underestimating the youthful Orlando… and they will extend their winning run to six games, for the first time since January 2011.
Selection
Orlando Magic (H2H) @ $2.25 (Luxbet)
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