After yesterday’s loss on the points spread for the Atlanta Hawks, The Big Dog is officially putting that market on the shelf. instead, today’s plays are going to revolve around margins and player performance, both areas that have seen some nice returns, so far this season… and it should be absolutely no surprise that a man named Russell headlines the action.
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat
The Indiana Pacers have shown that they are a very tough team to beat, at home… but lately that hasn’t been the case on the road. They are 7-9 overall when playing away, this season but they come into today’s game against the Miami Heat having won only one of their last seven on the road. Given Miami’s strong play at home (14-7), that’s not the kind of form any visiting team wants to bring to South Beach. The Heat will also be acutely aware that they are 0-2 against the Pacers this season, having lost both games at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and will be looking to square the season series at 2-2, with the next two contests played at American Airlines Arena. With rest on their side, The Big Dog would be confident in a big win for the home team but this is Miami’s third game in four nights. Although they were able to cruise in a 97-75 belting of the Washington Wizards, there may be a question-mark around fatigue and that is reflected in the 2.5-point spread. The Heat have performed well in the second game of back-to-back sets, going 2-2, with the losses being by three points in regulation (to the Pacers) and nine points in overtime. The odds for a close win to the home side look like great value, in the first play of the day.
Selection
Miami Heat 1-10 (Margin) @ $2.90 (William Hill)
Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder
With Kevin Durant set to sit this game out, due to a sore foot, it’s all-aboard the Russell Westbrook train… and Sportsbet are offering major overs on a points/match winner double. Westbrook is 5th in the league in scoring (25.6 points per game) and has shown that he loves nothing more than to take games over, when he’s missing his partner in crime. During a six-game stretch in December, when Durant was out of the lineup, he averaged 32.67 points and had a pair of 40-plus games. Seeing Westbrook go large again would be no surprise at all, given that the Kings now have the worst defensive record in the league, conceding a shocking 107.7 points per contest. It seems surprising that this double is being offered at odds above even-money and The Big Dog refuses to let such generosity pass him by. Durant or no Durant, the Thunder are going to be way too good for Sacramento. Sit back and watch one of the most explosive scorers in the NBA tear them to pieces.
Selection
Russell Westbrook 30+ Pts/Oklahoma City Thunder To Win @ $2.75 (Sportsbet)
Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz
Since winning 88-84 against the Spurs, on Christmas Day, it’s been back to bad habits for the Houston Rockets. This is particularly true on the defensive end. In the four games since their last win, the Rockets have conceded a minimum of 110 points. Three of those four opponents have been allowed to shoot over 50 percent from the field and an amazing 11 individual opposition players have scored at least 20 points. This is extremely bad news for a team that was already poor, defensively. Houston allow 106.2 points a game, making them the fourth-worst team in the league, in that area. They are second-worst in opposition field-goal percentage (46.6) and tied with the Sacramento Kings for fifth-worst in defensive efficiency (105.5 points allowed per 100 possessions). The Utah Jazz appear to be trending in the opposite direction. They come into this game looking for four home wins in a row, while allowing just 96.9 points per game, for the league’s 5th-best defence. They have had their struggles on the offensive end, averaging just 96.8 points a night (27th) but an outing against the at times non-existent Rockets defence should be just the tonic for that. The Jazz play at the slowest pace in the league, averaging just 93.7 possessions a game, which makes the 1-10 margin a good bet for any Utah win but the real value here is when Sportsbet add Gordon Hayward to the mix. The leading scorer for the Jazz is averaging 18.8 points for the season and has gone for 25-plus on only three occasions but given the Rockets’ issues on defence, the odds of him making it to 25 points for a fourth time, in a Jazz win, are just amazing.
Selection #1
Utah Jazz 1-10 (Margin) @ $2.95 (William Hill)
Selection #2
Gordon Hayward 25+ Pts/Utah Jazz To Win @ $4.50 (Sportsbet)
