After finding four winners on an eight-play Sunday, The Big Dog gets a chance to slow down and catch his breath, with only five games scheduled for Monday. Only one of those matches warrants close attention, as an in-form team looks like exceptional value on the road, as they face a conference foe that set an unwanted franchise record, in a last-start loss.
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks
Let’s get one thing out of the way, straight off the top. The Atlanta Hawks should be much shorter than they are, across virtually all markets. Even allowing for the fact they are travelling for this game, their hosts have lost five of their last six and were beaten 31-8 in the final term of a 108-81 hiding by the Chicago Bulls, setting a new franchise low for points in a quarter. The Hawks come into this game after four days rest, having won seven of their past eight and three of four on the road. With that position clarified, The Big Dog will turn his attention on how to best capitalise on the bookies’ apparent under-appreciation of Atlanta… and there appear to be no shortage of opportunities, especially if you don’t mind taking $1.55 for the win. We begin at the points spread, a market that has not been kind to The Big Dog, this season. The Knicks are receiving just 4.5 start. In two previous meetings, this season, the Hawks have won by 11 and 19. Six of Atlanta’s last seven victories have come by six points or more, while each of New York’s last five losses have been by more than six, culminating in the 27-point hammering in Chicago. Even considering that this has not been a profitable option over the last month, Hawks -4.5 is a play that can be taken with confidence. Going back to the previous meetings between these teams, although both were won by Atlanta, the starts were very different. Both sides held 10-point leads on the opponent’s home court, at the end of the first quarter. The consistency is found in the second term, where the Hawks have won by six and seven points, respectively. With the line for this quarter set at just -1.5 for the Hawks, The Big Dog will back the trend to continue. To complete a tasty triple-play on this game, it’s overs in the Total Game Score market. The Knicks have played in six recent (last ten) games that have gone over the line for this game, while the Hawks have played in five. Those numbers usually wouldn’t be convincing enough to take this option… but as with the previous plays, the deciding factor is in the previous two clashes in the series. With those games coming to totals of 213 and 215, that is enough margin to suggest that another high-scoring encounter could be on the cards. Atlanta shot over 50 percent from the field in both those games and if they are allowed to do that for a third time, it promises to be a profitable morning for followers of The Big Dog.
Selection #1: Atlanta Hawks -4.5 @ $1.95 (William Hill)
Selection #2: Atlanta Hawks -1.5 (2nd Quarter Line) @ $1.87 (William Hill)
Selection #3: Over 203.5 (Game Total Points) @ $1.91 (William Hill)
