The Big Dog is officially on a winning streak, after two consecutive days of two wins each. Friday’s six-game schedule is challenging and will almost certainly produce some great contests but The Big Dog has found a Friday triple-play, featuring four road teams in three games. How…? Read on.
Orlando Magic @ Utah Jazz
There’s some very simple logic behind The Big Dog’s first tip, which makes the market on this game almost bewildering. In fact, when you consider that the Jazz are a .500 team at home and they’re going to be without their defensive pillar in this game, the only conceivable explanation for how they are such solid favourites comes down to how well they played against Golden State. With Rudy Gobert sidelined with a strained MCL, Utah lose their best rebounder (10.9) and the 3rd-best shot blocker (2.6) in the league. We even have a recent example of what happens between these two teams, when Gobert is unable to suit up. The Magic won 102-93, in Orlando, when the Jazz centre was out with a sprained ankle. With Rodney Hood and Victor Oladipo also unavailable that night, the home team held a 22-point lead in the second quarter and a 23-point lead in the fourth quarter, before switching off early and allowing the Jazz to make the box score more respectable. Nikola Vucevic scored 16 points on 8 of 14 shooting, to go with 9 rebounds and 5 assists, easily out-performing all of Utah’s big men. Vucevic is in for another big night but the sealer in this game is that Oladipo is not only back, he is leading the Magic’s offense over the last four games, averaging 18.3 points off the bench. Combined with the fact that Orlando have only conceded 91.3 points a night, over their current winning streak. Taking nothing at all away from the Jazz for getting so close to knocking off the Warriors, two nights ago… The Big Dog can only see a Magic victory here. In fact, the odds on offer here might end up representing some of the best value we’ll see all season.
Selection
Orlando Magic (Head-to-Head) @ $2.55 (Luxbet)
Indiana Pacers @ Portland Trail Blazers
The Indiana Pacers were the second of Big Dog’s successful tips from yesterday, after dispatching the Los Angeles Clippers 103-91. So when they play the struggling Portland Trail Blazers, the next night and the market shows that the Pacers are still significantly undervalued… the only sensible thing to do is double-down! Even allowing for the fact that this is the second leg of a back-to-back, on the road, to suggest that an appropriate line for this game is -2.5, completely defies belief. To begin with, Indiana are aiming for their fifth consecutive road win, seventh overall and thirteenth in their last fifteen games. On the other hand, the Blazers have lost ten of their last thirteen and are coming off a 115-112 home loss to the Mavericks, in overtime, in a game where they held a 96-91 lead, with 51 seconds left in regulation. If you’re still not convinced, the Pacers are statistically better than the Blazers in virtually every meaningful category, aside from rebounds, where Portland average 1.8 more per game. If somehow you STILL need more proof, then look at the last time Indiana played the second leg of a back-to-back. After losing 101-97 to the Cavaliers, they beat Orlando 97-84. It feels like I haven’t written much about this game but the reality is, there’s not much more that can be said. Paul George is still healthy, the Pacers are rolling… and the only way they don’t cover this bizarre line is if they don’t show the Trail Blazers any respect. If they focus, they win. It’s as simple as that.
Selection
Indiana Pacers (-2.5) @ $1.93 (Luxbet)
Boston Celtics @ Sacramento Kings
When is a home game not a home game? When you take a home game to Mexico City, as part of the NBA Global Games. With home court advantage removed from the equation, this game becomes completely about who is the better team. Despite the return of do-everything big man, DeMarcus Cousins, The Big Dog thinks that is clearly the Boston Celtics. For Boston to convert that into a win, they have to overcome a Kings side that is more than significantly better, with Cousins in the lineup. They are 6-5 with and 1-7 without their All-Star big, despite regularly getting impressive contributions from Rajon Rondo and Rudy Gay. Surprisingly though, while it has lent itself to almost all the team’s wins, the presence of the man they call “Boogie” has not had a major impact on the defensive end. The Kings rank 27th for opposition points per game (108.5), which only improves to 106.0 when he plays. The Celtics are 7-0 when scoring at least 104 points and coach Brad Stevens has his team playing tough defensively… most of the time. Boston have the seventh-best overall defence, allowing 97.5 points a game. That drops to 89.7 in wins and blows out to 107.3 in losses. Sacramento have been consistently porous, regardless of the result, having kept their opponents under 100 on only three occasions. That’s more than enough for The Big Dog to say that the Celtics will take this one, at the Kings’ home away from home.
Selection
Boston Celtics (-1.5) @ $1.92 (Luxbet)
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