Yesterday’s dominant 115-99 home victory by the New Orleans Pelicans made it four successful tips in a row for The Big Dog and as the old saying goes, “Winning form is good form”. Saturday presents nine games across The Association, with a number of intriguing match-ups and the return of Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr, to active duty. That match is one of three that make up today’s best plays.
Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors
The Miami Heat locker room is currently resembling an episode of M*A*S*H, to the point where it’s almost easier to list the players that are definitely available, as they head north for a match with the Toronto Raptors. Dwayne Wade, Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic, Luol Deng, Josh McRoberts and Chris Andersen are all confirmed out, while Gerald Green, and Beno Udrih are all listed as questionable. That’s hardly the condition you want to be in for a game against one of the form teams in the league, right now. The Raptors are 3-0 on their current homestand and going for their seventh consecutive win, overall. They’ve won by an average of 10 on their current streak and 19-8 against other Eastern Conference teams. Up the other end of the scale, Miami have lost their last three by an average of 18.67 and despite being 23-20 overall, have won just 11 of 25 against their own conference. It’s not really a question of whether Toronto should win… but by how much. This tip is a no-brainer and a worthy exception to the points spread over 7.5 rule. Clearly The Big Dog’s “Play of the Day”.
Selection
Toronto Raptors -11.5 @ $1.95 (William Hill)
Milwaukee Bucks @ Houston Rockets
Having been a key role-player in Houston’s run to the 2015 Western Conference Finals, the Rockets hope that re-acquiring Josh Smith from the Clippers will spark a major push in their otherwise inconsistent season. However, the returning forward will likely not be cleared in time to participate in today’s home game against the Milwaukee Bucks, who are quietly looking for their fourth win in as many contests. Although the Bucks have an extremely uninspiring away record (7-18), there are a few factors in play that make this a great chance for that to improve in Houston. Firstly, the Rockets will be short-handed. Dwight Howard, Donatas Motiejunas, Patrick Beverley and rookie Sam Dekker are out, while Jason Terry and Montrezl Harrell are questionable. On top of that, the Bucks have been strong in two specific areas that are weaknesses for Houston. Milwaukee lead the league in points in the paint and average the third-most points off turnovers. The Rockets allow the third-most points in the paint and second-most points off turnovers. That combination could create a significant advantage for the visitors and The Big Dog thinks they have what it takes to cause a minor upset and offer tremendous value, at the Head-to-Head market.
Selection
Milwaukee Bucks @ $2.25 (Luxbet)
Indiana Pacers @ Golden State Warriors
In back-to-back wins, the Golden State Warriors have emphatically silenced any and all talk of concern that emerged, after they were dismantled in Detroit, last Saturday night. After what was clearly their worst performance of the season, the defending NBA champions bounced back with a 34-point win in Cleveland and a 31-point win in Chicago. Now they return to Oracle Arena, looking for their 40th win of the season and there will be a familiar face watching from the sideline. Coach Steve Kerr returns after recovering from complications that followed back surgery in the off-season. Though it’s been obvious to all that Kerr has been assisting Luke Walton from afar, his immediate presence is only going to provide a further incentive for the Warriors to put in a huge performance. That should mean points… and lots of them. These two teams combined for 254 in an epic four-quarter shootout, on December 8th and while it’s not reasonable to expect something too similar in the return bout, there is a lot of room to move between that total and the line on offer. Golden State’s last two games have come to 230 and 219 total points, while Indiana’s most recent losses have been in games of 255 and 222 points. The Warriors will win this game, barring catastrophe but the -13.5 is just a little too big for The Big Dog. Overs is the play, especially if Paul George pours in 33 points, as he did in the last meeting.
Selection
Over 216.5 (Total Points) @ $1.93 (Luxbet)
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