As we move ever closer to the 2016 Playoffs, the NBA landscape continues to develop more and more intrigue, as sub-plots spring up all over the place. Are the Warriors still on track to eclipse the Bulls’ 72-win season? Do the Raptors care more about the number one seed than the Cavaliers? Who gets the eighth seed in either Conference? Did one win just make the Spurs title favourites? Amid all the uncertainty, finding value in betting markets is no easy task but there is one play that has caught The Big Dog’s eye.
Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves
The Golden State Warriors remain on track to set a new NBA record for wins in a regular season… but remarkably, they are not yet guaranteed to finish at the top of the Western Conference. The defending NBA Champions lost for just the seventh time this season on Saturday night, going down 87-79 in San Antonio. The usually rapid-scoring Warriors were kept in check by the Spurs all night and shot just 37.8 percent from the floor and 25.0 percent from three-point range. That shooting performance was so out of character that today’s game against the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves suddenly becomes vital in terms of getting back into their usual offensive flow. Golden State are yet to lose consecutive games this season and it would be a tremendous shock if that trend did not continue today. However, this is also their seventh game in eleven days and Steve Kerr knows he has to give his troops time to rest and freshen up, at some point. Unfortunately for the Timberwolves, this is a prime opportunity for the Warriors to have a result put to bed in the first half, allowing time for Kerr to bench his stars. This could have a huge impact on the game total, which is set understandably high. The Warriors have played in a total of 17 games where total points have exceeded 232 (24.6%). The Timberwolves, who also haven’t been known for playing lock-down defence, have seen that same line go overs on six occasions in their 69 games (8.7%). So the odds are overwhelmingly in favour of unders, in spite of the previous match between these two sides producing a whopping 245 points, in a 129-116 Warriors win. The Big Dog expects the champs to bounce back and easily claim their 63rd win for the season but at this point, there is little incentive to go full-throttle for all 48 minutes. Look for a 120-104 kind of scoreline, with unders on the game total looking like more of a lay-down certainty than the 13-point spread.
Selection
Under 232.5 (Total Points) @ $1.94 (Luxbet)
Tools
Results Spreadsheet
