The Big Dog’s run of frustrating outs continued, as the Suns and Raptors (with a not-so-special mention to Kyle Lowry) unceremoniously removed themselves from his Christmas card list! With match results continuing to resist consistency, it’s back to the Total Points markets we go. As it happens, the lowest Over/Under mark is 196, on a 9-game Tuesday. That’s an extremely high number for the low end of the scale and therefore, The Big Dog has his focus set squarely on the games that should be going under their lines… and there is certainly plenty to look at.
Sacramento Kings @ Washington Wizards
Starting with the highest Total Points line of the day. In 52 combined matches, only 16 (30.8%) have exceeded a game total of 217. Ten of those games involved the Sacramento Kings, who are playing the second leg of a back-to-back set. Three times in six occasions, has a Kings game gone over 217 when playing with no rest but the biggest factor here is the improved defensive numbers for Sacramento. Averaging 106.9 points against (29th) for the season, the Kings have only allowed one opponent in their last six to score 100 or more. There will still be plenty of points in this game but probability is overwhelmingly in favour of unders.
Selection
Under 217 (Total Points) @ $1.92 (Luxbet)
Indiana Pacers @ San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs are putting together one of the most impressive defensive seasons in NBA history, conceding only 87.5 points a game, at AT&T Center. The Indiana Pacers have also found their form on the defensive end, allowing 91 per game, over their last four. This is a match-up that the Spurs should enjoy. While the Pacers are 4th in the league for 3-point percentage (37.3), the home team are number two at defending shots from beyond the arc, limiting the opposition to an average of 30.8 percent. San Antonio will also look to take away the run of the Pacers and create a half-court tempo. The hosts are among the slowest teams in the NBA, averaging just 95.8 possessions per contest but are also number two in offensive efficiency and a clear number one in defensive efficiency. It’s going to be a tough ask to score 95 points against the Spurs, as it always is and with the Pacers only allowing 100 points in one of their last six, this is another case where unders can’t be ignored.
Selection
Under 198 (Total Game Score) @ $1.91 (William Hill)
Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz
The game plan is going to be pretty simple for the Utah Jazz. In a meeting of the slowest and second-fastest teams in the NBA, Utah will be aiming to dramatically reduce the pace of the contest, as the Suns look to rebound from a bad loss against the Milwaukee Bucks. The Jazz average only 93.9 possessions a game and have not played a home game where the total has gone beyond 198 points, since going to overtime against the Indiana Pacers, on December 5th. Despite being one of the league-leaders in pace, the Suns have also found themselves on the unders side of today’s line, in three of their last four contests. In the second leg of a back-to-back, three of five Suns games have totaled 198 or less. The Big Dog is not convinced that yesterday’s collapse against the Bucks won’t be haunting the Suns and that their energy level could be at a low ebb. This should make it easier for the Jazz to turn the game into a low-scoring grind.
Selection
Under 198 (Total Points) @ $1.93 (Luxbet)
