As expected, fatigue got the better of the Chicago Bulls, after their quadruple-overtime marathon against the Detroit Pistons. After a slow start, the New York Knicks lead at the first break and were never challenged, easily covering the small line of -1.5 and registering a much-needed win for The Big Dog. Monday presents a few interesting fixtures, with as many as four home teams appearing to be potentially undervalued at the points line. As always, The Big Dog attempts to separate the wheat from the chaff, in the never-ending pursuit of profit.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Phoenix Suns
The Bucks have saved their best performances this season for when some of the best teams in the NBA come to Bradley Center… but on the road, it’s been a very different story. Owners of one of the worst Away records in the NBA (2-13), Milwaukee travel to Phoenix for a match-up that is a statistical nightmare, even if the Suns themselves aren’t in completely convincing form. Having endured their own painful struggle on the road, Phoenix has won three of four at home, including a solid 104-88 thumping of the New Orleans Pelicans, on Friday night. They certainly enjoy putting on a show for their fans, when it all comes together. Of their eight home wins, five have come by a margin of at least 14, while they have not scored less than 103 points in any win, so far this season. That’s the first point of concern for the Bucks, who are 1-14 when their opposition score in triple figures. They are also 1-14 in games where they have a lower field goal percentage than their opponents. The Suns hold a slight advantage in that area (+0.5%), looking at season averages. Their advantage is more pronounced in rebounding (+3.7), where they are 10-5 when on the winning side of the count. Perhaps the most concerning aspect of this season for the Bucks has been the way they have lost games. 15 of their 18 losses have come by seven points or more, with 11 of those coming by at least thirteen. The final deciding factor is the way they performed (or otherwise) in the game after their first match with the Golden State Warriors. Three nights after snapping the 24-game undefeated streak, the Bucks travelled to Staples Center and lost 113-95 against the Lakers. The Bucks again pushed the Warriors all the way, before falling 121-112, two nights ago. The Big Dog is extremely tempted to take Phoenix at the higher price for an 11+ margin but that line of -6.5 looks like an easy path to profit, so that’s the way to go.
Selection
Phoenix Suns -6.5 @ $1.95 (William Hill)
Sacramento Kings @ Toronto Raptors
Another example of a good team that plays better at home, meeting a mediocre team that have been awful on the road. This time it’s DeMarcus Cousins and the Kings, on the road against the Toronto Raptors and their dynamic backcourt duo of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. The Raptors’ front line is missing some key pieces, namely Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll, although their absence hasn’t stopped the wins from rolling in. Toronto have won five of seven, including four straight at home. The Kings have also found some form at home recently but come to Toronto looking to halt a four-game skid in games away from Sleep Train Arena. Cousins will certainly be a major component in any chance of an upset and his mere presence is enough to steer The Big Dog away from the points line. The Total Points line is set high, at 206.5 and this warrants further investigation. Toronto rank 4th in the NBA on the defensive end, allowing 96.2 points per game but aren’t as effective offensively, ranked 21st at 99.8 points a night. No game that the Raptors have won has finished with a total above 206, since a 119-103 romp over in Philadelphia, six weeks ago. The Kings are quite the opposite to the lock-down Raptors. Sacramento have the second-worst defensive record in the league, giving up 107.4 points on average, while scoring 104.6 of their own. They also operate with the third-highest pace rating in the NBA (101.8 possessions per game), while the hosts are slower and more deliberate (95.9). Typically, the home team will dictate the pace of the game and this definitely plays into unders. Sacramento have definitely played in their fair share of shootouts but only three of seven Away games played against teams with a pace rating below 100 have exceeded a game total of 206. The Big Dog thinks the scales are definitely tipped in favour of the low side and I’ll throw in a Toronto win, to sweeten the deal.
Selection
Toronto Raptors/Under 206.5 (Head-to-Head/Total Points – Luxbet) @ $2.90
Tools
