The Big Dog didn’t get off to the ideal start, on his debut for The Profits… and today’s schedule is interesting to say the least, with five of six games having lines of three or under. After weighing up all factors, there are two home teams that stand out from the pack, starting with…
Los Angeles Lakers @ Philadelphia 76ers
In the first game since Kobe Bryant announced that this season would be his last in the NBA, the two worst teams in the league cross paths, meaning one significant losing streak has to end. The situation for the 76ers is well publicised, having started this season 0-18, they have now lost more consecutive regular season games (28) than any team in American professional sport. Although their record makes for sad reading, Philly have been both competitive and considerably unlucky in the last two weeks. They held a lead in the fourth quarter against each of their last five opponents, only to lose those games by a combined 24 points. As is often the case with any young team, they have struggled to find any kind of composure in crunch time but the fact they found themselves in a winning position so often, clearly shows that there is talent on the 76ers roster. At 2-14, the Lakers aren’t much better and have lost their last six, with an average losing margin of 15.67. Even discounting the 111-77 loss to the Golden State Warriors, that average remains at 12. The Lakers’ plight is not being helped by Kobe Bryant shooting just 23.7% from the floor, over the last four games. This is made worse by the simple fact that he is still taking the most shots of anyone on the team, while hitting at the worst overall percentage (30.5) than every single one of his teammates. The market has also swung considerably in favour of Philadelphia, with the original line of Lakers (-1) now reversed to 76ers (-1.5). Brett Brown is a very good coach who has been given virtually nothing to work with for years now but there’s no doubt he will have the Sixers ready for this game. In a season where wins will be disturbingly rare, this is a game they simply have to win. From an aesthetic point-of-view, it could be uglier than the time you walked in on your parents… but the Big Dog thinks Philadelphia can finally snap the most devastating losing streak in sport today.
Selection
Philadelphia 76ers (H2H) @ $1.83 (Luxbet)
Phoenix Suns @ Brooklyn Nets
Since starting the season looking like one of the more hopeless teams in the NBA, the Brooklyn Nets have shown steady improvement, at least at home. They aim to win their fourth game at Barclays Center in as many starts, when the Phoenix Suns come to town. Both teams will be short a big man, with Andrea Bargnani out for the Nets and Tyson Chandler likewise for the Suns, as both deal with hamstring injuries. This leaves us with a battle between Brook Lopez and Alex Len in the middle, a match-up that presents Brooklyn with a nice advantage. The Suns have struggled recently against sides with at least one quality big. This was particularly evident in a pair of losses to the New Orleans Pelicans, with Anthony Davis scoring a combined 58 points on 22 of 36 shooting. The Nets will look to run their offense through Lopez, without Chandler providing his usual steady presence as a rim-protector and the team’s best rebounder. Overall, the Nets should command a significant advantage on the boards. Without their starting centre, the Suns have nobody who averages six or more rebounds a game, while Brooklyn has Thaddeus Young (8.7) Brook Lopez (8.4) and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (6.1). While Chandler averages 8.8 rebounds a game, that’s over three more than the next best in Phoenix, Markieff Morris (5.7). The Suns may have to rely heavily on three-point shooting, where they currently rank 3rd in the league, while both teams have not been good at defending the perimeter. If Joe Johnson can find form from deep, where he is currently hitting only 27.1% of his shots, then that should be enough to sway the game well in Brooklyn’s favour and drive home their advantage on the inside. There has been support for the Nets at the (+3) line but the Big Dog thinks they can get their fourth straight win at home and the Head-to-Head value is too good to refuse.
Selection
Brooklyn Nets (H2H) @ $2.25 (Luxbet)
Results Spreadsheet
