After going 1-2 yesterday, The Big Dog is officially 16-16-1 on the season. What time could be better to kick off another winning streak? With only three games on the menu, the pickings may be slim… but two of those games present options worth looking at. With a big Saturday looming, it’s time to build that momentum!
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Since suffering their first loss at home on the 1st of the month, the Cleveland Cavaliers have only played at Quicken Loans Arena once, scoring a 105-100 win against Portland. Today’s opponent looks much tougher and will require a much improved effort, especially on the defensive end. Cleveland haven’t seen much of the Western Conference and although they’ve won three of four, the last three have seen them allow an average of 109.3, against the Jazz, Pelicans and Trail Blazers. A similar performance against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who average 107.6 a night, will almost certainly lead to a loss. However, the Cavs are entitled to be feeling good about their recent defensive efforts. The reigning Eastern Conference champions have allowed a combined 153 points in their last two wins, against the Magic and Celtics, both on the road. For their part, the Thunder haven’t allowed an opponent to score 100, during their current six-game winning streak. Those figures provide equally strong cases for both sides of the Game Total line (204.5), which rules that market out. Therefore, we look more intently at game result markets and the the situation becomes clearer, due to the relative health of both rosters. Having only just come back from off-season wrist surgery, Iman Shumpert has suffered a groin injury and will not play. Kyrie Irving was rumoured to be returning but he remains out for at least another few days, while Mo Williams is listed as a game-time decision with a sprained thumb. The prospect of facing an injury-ravaged Cavaliers back-court has to be music to one man’s ears. That man is Russell Westbrook. OKC’s All-Star guard is averaging career-best numbers in field goal percentage (46.1), free-throw percentage (84.3) and assists (9.4). With LeBron James likely to have his hands full with Kevin Durant, Westbrook’s likely adversary looks to be Matthew Dellavedova, a man known for his defensive tenacity… but against one of the most potent attacking guards in the NBA, this looks like a bridge too far. If Mo Williams is unable to play, Dellavedova will be asked to play much more than his average of 28 minutes, on a man who will make him work for the entire duration. Even if Williams is able to play, The Big Dog loves the healthy and in-form Thunder. In fact, I like them so much that I am ignoring them at the line of +3 and taking them straight. If Russell Westbrook does Russell Westbrook things and Serge Ibaka can stay out of foul trouble, Oklahoma City will stretch their NBA-best active winning streak to seven games.
Selection
Oklahoma City Thunder (Head-to-Head) @ $2.35 (Luxbet)
Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers
Even considering the way the Houston Rockets have started this season, it still seems shocking that anyone can look at this game and not be entirely confident in a blowout win to the visiting team… but that’s exactly the way this match-up looks. In fact, the Rockets have been so unreliable that there has been genuine support for the Lakers to cause an upset, at decent odds. The extra intangible of the speculation around Dwight Howard’s future, means that any result market is essentially a no-go. The Big Dog believes the lock in this game is found in the fact that neither of these teams lock-down. Despite being a far-superior offensive team, Houston are actually worse on the defensive end (allowing 107.1 per game) than the worst team in the Western Conference (106.8). The two franchises rank 26th and 25th respectively, in opposition scoring, while they are also 26th and 29th in defensive efficiency. It should come as little surprise that James Harden enjoys playing the Lakers and has averaged 32.8 over four straight wins in the series. An almost total lack of defensive pressure on both sides, combined with one of the NBA’s leading scorers and some improvement in form from a rested Kobe Bryant, makes overs the play to take us to the weekend.
Selection
Over 213.5 (Game Total) @ $1.92 (Luxbet)
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