After splitting a pair yesterday, The Big Dog is again taking a conservative approach. Sunday’s eight-game schedule contains quite a few potential trap games, especially when looking at lines and game totals. Once again though, there are a pair of plays that look slicker than your average… and The Big Dog hasn’t let them escape his vision.
Golden State Warriors @ Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are a significantly better team at The Palace of Auburn Hills, while the Warriors remain the best team in basketball. However, Golden State hasn’t kept opponents to under 100 points in consecutive games since Christmas Day, when they beat the Cavaliers 89-83. In fact, the Warriors have only allowed less than 100 in three of eleven games since then. Detroit average 104.6 points at home, compared to just 97.8 on the road and while they might not win this game, they will give the defending champions something to think about. The Big Dog thinks the home side will score well, regardless of the result and this play is easily the best of the day.
Selection
Over 103.5 (Detroit Pistons Points) @ $1.89 (Luxbet)
Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Clippers
Any team ranked as high as 4th in attack is going to be licking their lips at the thought of playing the worst defensive team in the league. When that same team also happens to be on a ten-game winning streak and playing at home, the task doesn’t get much tougher for the visitors. The Clippers haven’t lost since a 100-99 home loss to the Thunder on December 21st, winning their last ten games by an average of 11.6 points. Seven of those victories have come by at least six points. The Kings still have the third-best offense in the NBA (106.2 ppg) but haven’t allowed less than 101 in any game, since a 98-94 loss to the Trail Blazers, on December 27th. With Sacramento unable to stop teams from scoring and the Clippers having kept seven of their last ten opponents under 100, the play here looks exceptionally obvious. So much so that it’s impossible to ignore. Even considering that LA might be going into the game short-handed, this line looks too short for a team with the outside shooting ability of the Clippers.
Selection
Los Angeles Clippers -6.0 (Line) @ $1.95 (William Hill)
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