After a second day in the last week where the NBA schedule failed to excite The Big Dog, Thursday promises to provide an apathy antidote, with a huge 12 games and some truly tasty match-ups to sink our teeth into. From a clash between the most in-form teams in the East, to four games that should provide the best in the West an opportunity to flex their considerable muscle, there’s something for every basketball fan. With such a mouth-watering offering, the value appears plentiful but The Big Dog is here to serve up only the very best, for all your punting needs.
Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic
Twelve months ago, if you suggested that a match between the Hornets and the Magic might be the most entertaining spectacle on a 12-game card, you were utterly certifiable. Not in December 2015 though, as these two clubs boast the best recent form in the Eastern Conference, with seven wins from their last ten games. In a remarkable illustration of how even the East has become, all teams but the Philadelphia 76ers (1-9) are between 7-3 and 3-7 from the last ten starts. Orlando go into this game as a slight favourite with the bookies, having won 7 of 11 at home, while Charlotte are 4 of 9 on the road. However, there are a few factors that suggest the home team might have been installed as false favourites. To begin with, this is the first game at Amway Center since the Cleveland Cavaliers came to town and dismantled their hosts, 111-76. The Hornets have also parlayed their hot form at home (10-4) into improved form on the road. Their last two visits, to Chicago (102-96) and Memphis (123-99), illustrate this perfectly. Add to this the fact that Charlotte have better offensive and defensive scoring numbers than Orlando, creating a differential advantage of +3.1, in favour of the visitors. Both clubs are among the best in the league, in terms of defensive efficiency (6th and 7th respectively) but it’s the Hornets’ ability to be efficient on the offensive end, that really put them over the line for The Big Dog. Charlotte are ranked 5th in the NBA, averaging 104.4 points per 100 possessions, while Orlando average 99.9 points per 100 possessions, which is good enough for 21st in the league. The Magic should have a profound advantage in the form of centre Nikola Vucevic but the Hornets have adapted to playing without Al Jefferson, without missing a beat. On the back of consistently high-level play on both ends of the floor, the road team should take the win here.
Selection
Charlotte Hornets (Head-to-Head) @ $1.95 (Luxbet)
Miami Heat @ Brooklyn Nets
The Miami Heat are currently the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference, allowing just 93.6 points per contest. In 14 wins so far this season, they have restricted the opposition to 89 points or less on eight occasions, the most recent of those being a 100-88 victory in Atlanta. Heat games are also regularly low-scoring affairs. At least one team has scored 100 points in only 7 of their last 20 games and they have only played in two games this season where both teams reached three figures. The 116-109 win over the Sacramento Kings, on 20th November, is the only game the Heat have won this season, while allowing the opponents to score more than 97 points. This contest shapes up as a potential nightmare for the Brooklyn Nets, who were held to just 82 points, in a 105-82 last-start loss to the Orlando Magic. History is also on Miami’s side. They swept all four meetings with the Nets, last season and have won 21 of the last 26 in the series. Brooklyn have averaged 89.2 points on 42.3% shooting, against the boys from South Beach. In terms of efficiency, Miami have a +4.4 differential between attack and defence, which is far superior to Brooklyn’s -6.4 differential. All this evidence points emphatically toward a big win for the Miami Heat. The only plausible reason for the line only being four points is the combination of the Nets’ respectable home record (6-6) and the expectation of a very low-scoring game. With this being the case, The Big Dog is grabbing himself a piece of both markets, with Miami to cover the points spread and the game to come in under the Game Total line. This game screams something like a 98-86 Heat win. In late-breaking news, Dwayne Wade is a game-time decision, after missing shootaround with illness. If Miami’s leading scorer is unable to go, The Big Dog believes the Heat will still cover the spread, while the case for unders probably improves.
Selection #1
Miami Heat (-4) @ $1.95 (William Hill)
Selection #2
Under 190.5 (Game Total) @ $1.97 (Luxbet)
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