There’s only one game to go before we can officially shift focus to the NBA Conference Finals. With the Cavaliers, Warriors and Thunder waiting patiently, the series between the Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat returns to Air Canada Center for a deciding Game 7. It’s an early start for Aussie fans (5:30am AEST), so The Big Dog is getting to work early and has settled on a “Play of the Day” to conclude a series that has looked at times impossible to predict.
Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors
The back-and-forth battle between the Eastern Conference second and third seeds concludes in Monday morning’s Game 7, with the Raptors looking to win a third game at home, while the Heat aim to win consecutive games for the first time in this series. There are a number of intriguing and conflicting angles at play for this match. Not the least of which is that the Raptors are 37-11 at home this season but are combating a daunting yet unlikely scheduling issue. Toronto are 0-13 in playoff games that tip off before 4pm ET. Game 7 gets underway at 3:30pm ET. On the other side of the court, the Heat have been a relatively average road team (22-25) but have a wealth of playoff experience, lead by Dwayne Wade and have also won their last four Game 7’s as a franchise. With the game and series results as murky as ever, The Big Dog is looking at the game total for some clarity. Both Miami and Toronto have found success this season on the back of consistently high defensive effort. Both teams finished the regular season ranked in the top five for points allowed and that has shown itself in this series. After combining for 198 points in Game 1, the next three games averaged 185.0 points. Game 5 forced a change over how the series would be viewed, as both teams have been forced into more “small ball” scenarios, following injuries to Hassan Whiteside (knee) and Jonas Valanciunas (ankle). Undoubtedly this has hurt Miami the most, with their NBA-leading shot-blocker’s absence leaving more space and opportunities in the lane for Toronto’s guard duo of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. While the Heat were still able to win Game 6, the game totals since the starting centres were ruled out have been 190 and 194. Although it’s not a huge increase, it’s enough to make the difference between under and over the Game 7 total line. With all four starting guards in this game appearing to be somewhere close to or in good form, The Big Dog thinks this final game could be the highest-scoring of the series… but failing that, overs at the standard line looks solid.
Selection
Over 189.5 (Total Points) @ $1.95 (Ladbrokes)
Tools
Results Spreadsheet
