After a slow first quarter, the scoring rate between the Warriors and Lakers gradually improved but ultimately fell just three points short of the line of 216.5. The Warriors themselves put together a dominant second half, turning a 52-49 halftime lead into a spread-covering 116-98 win. The Big Dog knows that near enough isn’t good enough, in this game and will be after a strong Saturday result, with a pair from today’s nine-game card offering something to seriously consider.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder
A poor second half from the Thunder cost The Big Dog, just three days ago… on this market… at this exact line… against this opponent… and at an almost identical price. A change of venue should be enough to stop lightening from striking twice. After scoring 60 points in the first half and appearing to be cruising on their way to overs at 110.5, Oklahoma City stopped to a walk and scored only 41 points in the next 24 minutes. For a team ranked third in the league for third-quarter scoring and fourth for fourth-quarter scoring, to say this was out of character is a significant understatement. The Thunder have scored over 110 points in 14 of their 28 wins, with eight of those coming at home. During their current slump of 12 losses from 13 games, Minnesota has given up over 110 on only three occasions but on each one of those, their opposition held a significant edge in both field goal percentage and rebounding. Oklahoma City are ranked 3rd in field goal percentage (47.5) and 2nd in rebounds (47.3) per game, holding respective differential advantages of 2.8 percent and 5.1 boards, over the Timberwolves. That should lead to plenty of points and The Big Dog is willing to bet on the fact they will have a much more productive second half, this time around.
Selection: Over 110.5 (Oklahoma City Thunder Points) @ $1.85 (Luxbet)
Portland Trail Blazers @ Brooklyn Nets
A last-start 110-104 win over the New York Knicks didn’t just snap a five-game losing streak for the Brooklyn Nets, it also ended a run of seven games where the game total has come to 197 or less. That’s in spite of Brooklyn being ranked only 25th in the NBA, in terms of opposition field goal percentage (46.1). Less of a surprise is the fact this occurred in a game where the Nets shot the ball significantly better than in the previous seven outings. They shot 52.3 percent from the floor, which is a seven-percent improvement on their best shooting night in the previous eight games, during a 103-89 loss to the Detroit Pistons. Portland have been a lot more volatile in terms of their game totals and seem to be more prone to allowing their opponents to dictate the pace of the game. This is illustrated well in their last two contests, a 225-point game against the Thunder (10th in pace and 2nd in offensive efficiency) and a 184-point game against the Jazz (30th in pace and 15th in offensive efficiency). The Nets operate at the same pace as the Trail Blazers (97.3 possessions a game) and score only 97.7 points per 100 possessions. Those figures are good enough for rankings of 18th and 28th, which suggests this game is going to look more like the match against Utah and the line of 204.5 is a stretch. Unders is the play.
Selection: Under 204.5 (Total Points) @ $1.92 (Luxbet)
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