Just quietly, The Big Dog is 11-4 (+6.15 units) over his last 15 tips and looking to ride the wave of winning momentum into another big weekend. Friday’s six-game card (including a game in London) is a tough one for those wanting to make an investment on the NBA… but there is one option at good, if not great value. So good in fact, that not even a line well outside the usual Big Dog parameters is enough to keep this tip from making the cut.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors
In what will be the final time fans at Oracle Arena will see Kobe Bryant play, the Lakers have wound up in the unenviable position of playing the defending NBA Champions at the worst possible time. Yesterday’s shock 112-110 loss in Denver was just the third in the Warriors’ season and just like in the previous two, it came when one of the team’s best three players was out of the lineup. At 36-3, Golden State are in exactly the same position as the record-setting 1996 Chicago Bulls were, after 39 games. That might not seem like a huge factor but it is, for a team that is playing with a chip on its collective shoulder, due to a school of thought that suggests they were “lucky” to win the title. Just as it was a key motivator behind their 24-0 start to the season, it’s also driving them to focus on the NBA season record of 72-10. The Warriors are yet to lose at home (18-0) and have won the last six meetings against the Lakers, at Oracle, including two this season by an average of 27.5 points. Those last two wins have come with Steph Curry not playing more than 30 minutes per contest. Had Golden State found a way to escape Denver with a win, it’s more than likely we would see more players given time to rest. However, losing back-to-back games simply isn’t an option for a team chasing history, so expect all stars back on deck, despite this being their fifth game in seven nights. The aim will be to blow the Lakers, who rank 28th in points allowed (105.5) and 30th in defensive efficiency (107.4 points per 100 possessions), out of the water in the first three quarters, before coasting to the finish line. There will be no shortage of points in this game and The Big Dog expects the Warriors to put on at least 120, making overs the right play for their team total line (116.5) and the game total line (216.5). In fact, The Big Dog is so sure that the defending champs will bring their A-game against the Lakers, I’m temporarily suspending my rule around taking on lines of over eight points. The only other time this season that Golden State played at home after a loss, they smacked the Phoenix Suns 128-103. A similar result today is what The Big Dog is expecting.
Selection
Golden State Warriors -16.5/Over 216.5 (Line/Total Points) @ $3.40 (Luxbet)
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