The Big Dog emerges from a Monday spent in the confines of the kennel and is launching headlong into a ten-game NBA Tuesday. Today looks like it could be a potential nightmare for tipping competition players and gamblers alike… but once again, The Big Dog has plucked a few specials from the pack. Today the focus is on the Game Total market, examining the relationship between pace and efficiency.
Orlando Magic @ Brooklyn Nets
The Brooklyn Nets have been involved in some pretty high-scoring contests recently, despite being ranked 16th in pace (98.7 possessions per game) and a lowly 27th in offensive efficiency (97.6 points per 100 possessions). This can be undoubtedly attributed to five of their last six opponents being in the top ten, in terms of pace. The exception in recent times was the loss to the New York Knicks, in a game that finished with a total of 199 points, after a 63-point first quarter. A visit from the Orlando Magic, who rank 17th in pace and 23rd in offensive efficiency, should should see things slow down quite considerably. Add to that the fact that both the Nets and Magic rank in the bottom eight of the NBA in Effective Shooting percentage and True Shooting percentage (source: ESPN) and you have a game that should finish well short of any line close to 200 points. While it may appear concerning that Brooklyn have a defensive efficiency rating of 103.2 points per 100 possessions, it’s likely that the Magic won’t find the required time with the ball or the shooting touch, to get to that number. The Big Dog is very confident in unders being the play, at Barclays Center.
Selection
Under 198.0 (Game Total) @ $1.92 (Luxbet)
Philadelphia 76ers @Chicago Bulls
Chicago and Philadelphia both rank in the top ten for pace and the bottom four for both Effective Shooting and True Shooting percentage. Fans should be prepared for a frustrating night in front of the TV, on that basis. The 76ers’ offensive struggles have been well documented, as they rank last in points per game (90.4) and over five points adrift of the next worst team. As if things weren’t bad enough, they visit a Bulls team that has been locked-in on the defensive end, at home. Chicago has the 7th best defence in the NBA, allowing only 97.5 a night, on the season. They have been particularly impressive in their last five wins, allowing an average of only 88.2. Given that Philadelphia have failed to reach 80 in two of their last four losses, the Game Total line of 194 looks a long, long way away. There is little hope that the 76ers will win this match and the points total in the Bulls’ last five wins has also been under 194 on every occasion, while only one of Philly’s last four losses has gone over that same mark. The Big Dog expects those trends to continue.
Selection
Under 194.0 (Game Total) @ $1.92 (Luxbet)
Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs
With the Golden State Warriors grabbing all the headlines at the top of the Western Conference, it’s been easy to overlook how the Spurs have started the season. San Antonio have quietly got themselves to 20-5, on the back of the best defence in the league and an offense that is a lot better than it gets credit for. In fact, the Spurs are the only team in the league who rank inside the top four for both offensive and defensive efficiency. This has allowed them to score an average of over 100 points per game, despite being one of the slower teams, in terms of pace. Their opponents, the Utah Jazz, are the slowest in the NBA, averaging only 94.4 possessions a game. It’s doubtful that they will be in the mood to pick up that pace, after yesterday’s 104-98 overtime loss to the Thunder. The Jazz struggled on the defensive end on their last back-to-back (lost 103-94 to Orlando) and after their last overtime game (lost 114-106 in Sacramento). Meanwhile, San Antonio have topped 100 points in each of their last five victories. It stands to reason that the Jazz may only need to score 80 points for this game to go over the modest line of 185.5. With their lowest team total for the season being 87, back in the season opener against Detroit, The Big Dog says the Spurs will roll through the visitors and push the total to overs.
Selection
San Antonio Spurs/Over 185.5 (Head-to-Head/Total Points) @ $2.05 (Luxbet)
Tools
