After five-and-a-half long months of grind, the final day of regular season action is finally here. As is usually the case, the majority of the huge 14-game card is meaningless but you could be forgiven for thinking there are only two games happening today. Despite some potential re-shuffling within the final order of the Eastern Conference seedings, all the focus has been split between the Golden State Warriors’ chance to get their 73rd win… and that guy named Kobe, who’s playing his final game in a 20-year NBA career. The Big Dog has hit some good form lately, largely due to staying away from anything to do with match results. To close the regular season, it’s a huge five plays across four games, in the player performance markets. A pair of these plays look to take full advantage of resting players.
San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks
Having completed a 40-1 home season and joining the 1985-86 Boston Celtics for the best home court record in NBA history, it’s easier to name the Spurs who ARE playing against the Dallas Mavericks. LaMarcus Aldridge, Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and David West are all resting for this match. Those six players, who just happen to all be in the top eight on the Spurs roster, in scoring, average a combined 76.4 points per game. Patty Mills is the best scorer for this season (8.6 per game) playing in this game, for San Antonio. Mills has averaged 10.9 points in games where Tony Parker has sat out and with so much offensive firepower staying at home, points need to come from somewhere. The Aussie spark plug will play big minutes and shouldn’t even need to shoot particularly well to hit double-figures. The odds are a little lower than The Big Dog usually goes for but they are high enough. This is clearly the “Play of the Day”.
Selection
Patty Mills Over 9.5 (Player A Total Points) @ $1.74 (Sportsbet)
Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets
The Brooklyn Nets probably see the end of the 2015-16 season as a welcome mercy but point guard Shane Larkin has been determined to finish on a strong note. A final home game, against a Raptors team resting no less than four starters, should allow that trend to reach the finish line. Larkin has scored 35 points over his last two games and his 20-point effort in a last-start loss to the Wizards was his season-high. Corey Joseph is a talented back-up and likely to be starting for the Raptors, in today’s game. Although talented, he’s not Kyle Lowry and Larkin will have more opportunities to take and make shots.
Selection
Shane Larkin Over 12.5 (Player C Total Points) @ $1.82 (Sportsbet)
Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks
They’re long out of the playoff picture but the Milwaukee Bucks are going to finish this season with a pretty reasonable record on their home floor. As they aim up for a 24th home victory, The Big Dog is zooming in on one particular Buck who has performed better, both at home and against today’s opponent, than bookies expect him to. As the big presence in the paint, Greg Monroe started the season on fire but has cooled off considerably. He averaged 16.7 points per game before the All-Star break but only 12.9 since, despite shooting an identical field goal percentage (52.1). “Moose” has performed well against the Indiana Pacers, averaging 16.7 points and 8.0 rebounds in three meetings this season, including 16 and 7 in the most recent clash. The strength of the Pacers isn’t in the centre position, despite the promise shown by rookie Miles Turner and this plays into Monroe’s favour. The Big Dog thinks this line will be far too short, especially if the big man can get to the free-throw line a few times. Coming off a 23-point outing in his last start, overs looks very solid.
Selection
Greg Monroe Over 12.5 (Player H Total Points) @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)
Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Lakers
It’s Kobe Bryant’s final farewell… but The Big Dog isn’t only interested in what Black Mamba is going to do in his last NBA game. In fact, as far as Kobe is concerned, we can go ahead and throw most of what we’ve seen out the window. ESPN has reported this morning that coach Byron Scott has said Kobe will get “a lot of shots in a lot of minutes” during tonight’s game. This matches well with a recent quote from Scott, where he suggested that Bryant will play more minutes than he has this season, in his final game. Assuming that is true, we can expect him to be on the court for a minimum of 38 minutes. Three days ago, Kobe scored 35 points in 27 minutes, against the Rockets. While the Utah Jazz are a far better defensive team than the Rockets, we might not be seeing them at their best. Firstly, they will be without towering Frenchman Rudy Gobert, who did not travel with the team. Secondly, with the Rockets playing the lowly Kings, hours before this game, it’s extremely likely that the Jazz won’t have anything to play for. That could mean that both teams are going to be far less inclined to play defence. To be fair though, the Lakers haven’t been interested in doing that all season. This leads perfectly into The Big Dog’s second play for this game. Utah swingman Rodney Hood destroyed the Lakers in the last meeting, lighting up for 30 points in 29 minutes, including 8 of 9 from beyond the arc. This match isn’t about the result and no Lakers player will be interested in stopping the Jazz. That means the usually slow-paced Utah team will be able to move and score with more ease than usual, knowing that their possessions are just filler between shots for Kobe.
Selection #1
Rodney Hood Over 15.5 (Player C Total Points) @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)
Selection #2
Kobe Bryant Over 25.0 (Player E Total Points) @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)
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