After no action yesterday, due to the number of unreasonably early (for Australian fans) start times, The Big Dog is back for Tuesday. The Eastern Conference playoff eight are set but the Mavericks, Jazz and Rockets are still locked in a battle for the final two seeds in the Western Conference. All three teams are in action today and The Big Dog is all over those games.
Houston Rockets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
The equation for the Houston Rockets is simple. Win or go home. Sitting one game back of the Utah Jazz for the final playoff seed in the West and with only two games remaining, no more losses can be afforded, if the Rockets want to make the post-season. The unusual question is… do they really want to? It seems crazy to even suggest that a professional sports team would not want to get the most out of every season but this is the NBA and tanking is a very real thing. Certainly, after a bad loss to the Phoenix Suns (124-115, at home on April 7th) the question has seemed extremely legitimate. Their last-start 130-110 win over the Los Angeles Lakers may have contradicted that theory but it didn’t rule it out entirely. They have the talent and the experience to beat the Timberwolves in Minnesota but this is also a T-Wolves team that has beaten the Golden State Warriors, in the process of going 3-0 on their last road trip. The game result could go either way but the safer suggestion is that this will be a points-fest. The Timberwolves are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game (105.6) on the season and have scored an average of 111.7 over their last three games, while the Rockets have the double of a potent offense (106.2) and a leaky defence (106.7). The Big Dog is actually leaning towards a Minnesota win, purely because it doesn’t make sense for Houston to lose… and that’s the team they’ve been all season… but there will be no shortage of scoring action to keep the fans entertained.
Selection
Over 215.5 (Total Points Scored) @ $1.91 (Sportsbet)
Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz
If the Houston Rockets can win in Minnesota, this game becomes vital for the Utah Jazz. If the Rockets win and the Jazz lose, Utah will be playing for their lives in the middle of the Kobe Bryant farewell circus, at Staples Center. Thankfully, the game points line has been set so low for this game, it takes the need to assess the result of the game out of play. The Big Dog is grateful for that, as the seven-point spread is a tricky one. For Dallas, eight of their last ten games have gone over a total of 179 points and their season combination of average points scored and points allowed is 205.2. Jazz games have gone to at least 180 points in seven of their last ten games and their season averages combine for a game total average of 193.6. Finally, both previous games in this season series have easily gone over today’s line. The first meeting was a 193-point match and the most recent meeting produced a massive 240 points but considering that match went to overtime, we’ll take the total at the end of the fourth quarter, which was 220. Both these teams have the ability to play good to great defence, especially Utah at home… but this line is way too low. Overs for the win.
Selection
Over 179.5 (Total Points Scored) @ $1.91 (Sportsbet)
Tools
Results Spreadsheet
