Yesterday was a unique, if not entirely stressful day to be an NBA punter, with both games going to overtime but both favourites ultimately covering the spread. Thanks to the Cavaliers sweeping the Hawks, there’s only one game on the menu for today… but it’s a cracker, as the Thunder travel back to San Antonio with their series locked at 2-2.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs
The most entertaining semi final series of 2016 reaches its most pivotal point in Game 5, with both the Spurs and Thunder managing to steal a win on the other’s home court. The battle returns to the AT&T Center, where the Spurs have lost only twice all season and as well as the Thunder have played in this series, The Big Dog can see only one result on the cards. San Antonio have been more reliable in Game 5 scenarios than any other, during the Duncan/Popovic era, winning an imposing 25 of 33 Game 5 matches over the last 18 seasons. With their equally formidable home court record (43-2) also taken into account, it’s extremely difficult to make the case for an Oklahoma City upset, even considering the form of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Even so, this is a difficult match to find a value selection. The spread has been set at seven points, which is right in that horrible middle ground and the game total line of 199.5 lends itself to unders if the Spurs control the pace of the game and overs if the Thunder are able to get their transition game going. Instead, The Big Dog is looking at a Player Performance Double involving the Defensive Player of the Year and the man who came second in MVP voting, Kawhi Leonard. The Spurs’ two-way superstar reached the 25-point mark twice in the first three games and had 21 points through three quarters of Game 4, before missing all five of his shots in a completely uncharacteristic fourth-quarter performance. Leonard has been San Antonio’s most consistent contributor all season and we can expect a bounce-back effort, to propel the Spurs to yet another Game 5 victory.
Selection
Kawhi Leonard 25+ Pts/San Antonio Spurs To Win (Player Performance Doubles) @ $2.70 (Sportsbet)
Tools
Results Spreadsheet
