After a few days on the sideline, The Big Dog is back and looking to extend his season-best winning streak. Today is the last big day before the All-Star break and we’re going in with four big tips from today’s massive card of twelve games. Will the winning run reach an unprecedented ten games? The Big Dog is quietly confident.
Charlotte Hornets @ Indiana Pacers
The day begins with a clash of teams that are neck-deep in the race for the Playoffs in the Eastern Conference but who play considerably better in front of their own fans, compared to on the road. So it comes as no surprise that The Big Dog is looking at the home team for his first selection. The Indiana Pacers (28-24) currently occupy the sixth seed and are an impressive 17-8 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Charlotte Hornets (26-26) are ninth in the East, just two games behind the Pacers but have managed a road record of just 7-17 this season. More specifically than their general struggles on the road, the Hornets have had a history of bad results in Indiana. They’ve lost twelve in a row in Indianapolis, which is tied for their longest active road losing streak against any opponent. Charlotte have won four of their last five games but the only road fixture in that time was against the Los Angeles Lakers, who are 6-18 at home. The Pacers are a significantly tougher assignment and the line on offer, while respecting the improved recent form of the visitors, is too short.
Selection
Indiana Pacers -3.0 @ $1.95 (William Hill)
Los Angeles Clippers @ Boston Celtics
This game is probably the most bizarre, when you look at the form, schedule and the way the bookies have framed the market. The home team Celtics have been installed as favourites, the night after a final-second loss in Milwaukee and now have to host a Clippers team that has won its last five road games and seven of eight overall. In fact the Celtics’ record at home (16-10) is actually inferior to the road record for the Clippers (18-9). Los Angeles has also performed brilliantly against the Eastern Conference (18-5). Only the Warriors (19-2) and Spurs (19-4) have performed better against the other conference, in the entire NBA. Blake Griffin remains out with a broken hand but the Clippers have had no issue continuing their strong form in his absence and although Boston should offer a solid challenge at TD Garden, the visitors have no business being underdogs in this game. Better than even-money odds? The Big Dog says, “Yes please”.
Selection
Los Angeles Clippers @ $2.10 (bet365)
Toronto Raptors @ Minnesota Timberwolves
The Toronto Raptors are doing an outstanding job of staying in the fight for the number one seed in the East, even if every man and his dog has already locked in the Cleveland Cavaliers as the winners of the Eastern Conference finals. Winners of 14 from their last 15 games, including six of seven on the road, the Raptors take the relatively short trip to Minnesota to face a team with the third-worst home record in the NBA. The Timberwolves have won only 8 of 27 games at Target Center, this season but have done some work to improve that recently, with wins over the Suns, Grizzlies and Bulls in their last five home contests. Not to make too fine a point of it… but the Toronto Raptors are currently in a different league altogether, compared to all three of those teams. Over their current 14-1 stretch, twelve of their wins have come by at least six points, while the T-Wolves have given up 110.5 points over their last four games, despite winning two of those. The Raptors are also a resounding 20-1 against the Timberwolves, dating back to the start of the 2004/05 season. The spread for this game really should be closer to ten and when that happens, the only sensible thing to do is jump on the better side to do the job and cover.
Selection
Toronto Raptors -6.0 @ $1.95 (William Hill)
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
Is there anything left to say about the marvel that is the reigning and eventual back-to-back MVP, Steph Curry? The NBA’s leading scorer is continuing to elevate his game, as the Golden State Warriors continue their relentless pursuit of the 1996 Chicago Bulls season record of 72-10. Already scoring 29.9 points a game for the season (two points more than James Harden, in second place), Curry has increased that to 37.3 so far in February and is averaging 33 points against the Phoenix Suns, in only 30 minutes per contest. If you think playing away from the raucous crowd of Oracle Arena might slow him down… guess again. Curry averages 32.5 on the road, in 34.4 minutes. There’s a strong possibility that he might not actually be human… but, alien or otherwise, he’s scoring for fun at the moment. His 41 points in 31 minutes included 9 three-pointers, last time the Warriors played in Phoenix. With the Suns allowing 106.7 points per game (29th) and currently stuck in an eight-game skid, it isn’t outside the realm of possibility that Curry (who scored 25 of his 51 against the Wizards in the first quarter) could reach overs on today’s line by halftime. The only risk in his play is the high probability that he won’t be even close to required for the final quarter… but the job should be well and truly done by then, anyway.
Selection
Stephen Curry Over 29.5 (Player A Total Points) @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)
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