The Big Dog needs to break out of a slump and with the season in it’s closing few weeks, the smart thing appears to be keeping a very close eye on which teams are resting players en masse. Today presents us with such an opportunity, along with a chance to re-visit one of the most well-established trends of the entire season, involving a team that still has plenty to play for.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
If not for the fact that the Clippers don’t have a D-League affiliate, this game would probably just have that team’s name on the amended schedule. In a show of exactly how much Doc Rivers doesn’t care about finishing higher than the fourth seed they currently occupy, all five potential starters will be missing from the game against Oklahoma City, who are one seed above them. With Blake Griffin serving a four-game suspension and Paul Pierce dealing with a knee injury, they will be joined on the sideline by Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan and J.J. Redick, who have all been given the night off to rest. The Thunder had their eight-game winning streak broken by a 88-82 loss to the Detroit Pistons, with stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook taking exception to former teammate Reggie Jackson’s overt celebration at the victory. Westbrook is a triple-double machine and Durant is a scoring colossus but the biggest key to the Thunder’s resurgence might be the improved play of Serge Ibaka. Averaging just 12.7 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, over what has been a disappointing individual season, Ibaka has registered at least 15 points and 8 rebounds in three of his last four starts. His presence as a legitimate third threat makes the Thunder considerably better and without Jordan patrolling the paint for the Clippers, Ibaka has a great opportunity to fill the box score. Oklahoma City will win this game in a blowout and not even a huge double-digit spread is likely to be enough. Thunder by as many as you like.
Selection
Oklahoma City Thunder -15.5 @ $1.95 (William Hill)
Boston Celtics @ Portland Trail Blazers
In possibly the most interesting game of the day, the Blazers host the Celtics, with both teams still having plenty on the line, in their respective conferences. Boston are locked in a three-way battle for the fourth seed, with Miami and Charlotte, on 43-31 and are only one game behind the Atlanta Hawks for the third seed in the East. Out West, Portland occupy the sixth seed, only two games clear of the Rockets, Jazz and Mavericks, so they are yet to be guaranteed a playoff birth. Getting back to their home court, where they’re looking to win a sixth straight game and are 24-12 for the season, should be just what they need to sure up their position. The Celtics have struggled for consistency on the road (18-19) but may be boosted by the return of Jae Crowder, who is listed as a game-time decision with an ankle injury. When The Big Dog last looked in the direction of Damian Lillard and company, they completed their 20th halftime/full-time double in 22 wins, on March 19th. Since then, Portland has strengthened that trend, with 25 of their last 27 wins coming after the Trail Blazers lead at halftime. The Big Dog thinks the home court advantage will be decisive for Portland and with that being the case, the natural decision is to also back them to lead at the main break. Once again, this play is being offered at better than even money. That’s too good to refuse.
Selection
Portland Trail Blazers/Portland Trail Blazers (HT/FT Double) @ $2.20 (Luxbet)
Tools
Results Spreadsheet
