Welcome to The Profits preview for the Warrnambool Carnival Day 3 on 4 May 2017. The Weir train continued to roll yesterday at the Bool with Weir runners in double figure odds continuing the theme throughout the day. We enter the final day of the carnival down but not out and we hope to redeem ourselves with some final day heroics! As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Warrnambool Race 6 – Star Stealer – 1 unit Each-Way @ $10/$2.9
Other Bet
Warrnambool Race 1 – Waxing – 1.5 units @ $4.40 to win
Warrnambool Race 3 – Artie’s Shore – 1 unit @ $19 to win
Warrnambool Race 4 – Stylish Miss – 1 unit @ $3.20 to win
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Warrnambool Race 1 – 3200m – Hammonds Paint Champ Novice Hurdle
1. Try Four: Last prep got a hurdles win by 6L over a very average bunch of jumpers. Previous runs that prep were decent over staying distances. Two lead in runs have been less than desirable, but Weir has all his jumpers flying right now.
2. Monte Carlo: Four jumps runs this prep. Wasn’t too bad three back 13L off Renew, but the other runs have been very poor. Hard to suggest.
3. Transcript: Three jumps runs in a row heading into this today. Didn’t measure up this prep those three runs and hard to see the improvement needed.
4. The Dominator: Won his lead in maiden hurdle at Pakenham last start. The form hasn’t been franked so far yet. Has to improve again but has ability.
5. Waxing: Maiden hurdle winner last prep. Been going well enough leading into this including a very solid BM-78 run third behind Unfurl at Bendigo. Goes well on heavy tracks.
6. Barge and Charge: Handles the staying distances. Two back at Oakbank went around well backed but couldn’t get within 13L of Distillation on a good track. Last start better behind I’m A BlueBagger fairly beaten but ran well over 3292m.
9. Bonfire: Had every chance when went around as favourite on Tuesday in the maiden hurdle. Found three better that day. This looks easier on paper in comparison but there are a few ahead of him.
Comments: I’m keen to play here. The Two Weir runners are the ones I want to be near as we take on the new kid on the block The Dominator. Waxing is the one going well enough right now and will love the track today.. I’m happy to be on here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Waxing – 1.5 units @ $4.40 to win.
Warrnambool Race 3 – 1400m – Mercedes Benz Open Handicap
2. Plein Ciel: Four starts for four wins last prep after being imported from Germany. Clearly best runs were seen over further than this, but he has measured up no troubles at this distance and breeding should see him well in here on heavy.
3. Moss ‘n’ Dale: Won his last two starts on Heavy. Just got there over 1400m at Randwick and will continue to improve deeper into his prep. Clearly has the ability to measure up.
4. Artie’s Shore: Last win was at course and distance last year over this carnival. Goes well enough on heavy. In between preps a good run 0.4L 2nd in Open class behind Kenjorwood. Clearly good enough.
5. Floral Fever: Nice win first up at Stawell in much easier grade. Never measured up in the past to this grade but does go well on heavy.
6. Guizot: German/French import. Measured up over 1600m distances in 3YO grade over there. Won well first up at Sandown before did a fair bit of work last start at Ballarat on slow. Has the ability.
7. St Swithuns: Maiden winner last prep. Went through the grades. Good win first up in easier. Big step up again but seems to love heavy.
Comments: Artie’s Shore comes into this well over the odds and is the big standout at odds. Plein Ciel and Moss ‘n’ Dale are clearly the two to beat.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Artie’s Shore – 1 unit @ $19 to win.
Warrnambool Race 4 – 1400m – Schweppes BM-78
1. Stylish Miss: FMB_78 grade winner last prep and looks well suited here back to the heavy. Two runs this prep and slowly away on both occasions. Jump well today and looks well in here.
3. I’ll Fly Away: Irish import. 1400m maiden winner first up in the country and 2040m winner two back. First up here and while she is obviously suited by heavy.. surely wants further to find her very best.
4. Sahara Siren: CL3 winner last prep in Queensland. First up run wasn’t terrible on heavy CL3. Has to be respected.
5. Powerossa: Has won on the wet in the past and has won 4 from 7 at this track. Step up in class from what she has been winning in recently though.
6. Arachne: Disappointing from on speed last start coming off a very solid run and win first up. Back in grade but has to improve.
8. Lady Effort: Comes into this with some decent enough form lines, but has never run in this class previously. Last start run was solid. No wet track form.
9. Youiz Jane: Never placed on heavy in 3 starts and never won from 6 on soft. Much harder than she has seen in a while.
Comments: Happy to be on Stylish Miss in this race today Looks the standout.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Stylish Miss – 1 unit @ $3.20 to win
Warrnambool Race 6 – 1100m – The Standard
1. Marwood: Trialed well heading into this. Good run 5th first up… but is this too short? Loves it wet but hasn’t won in nearly a year and that was over 1400m. I just get the feeling he wants further.
2. Heza Bobby Dazzler: Measured up well up north including Doomben 3YO wins and BM-80 placed. Settled in well by all reports at home in the Weir yard and looks very well suited here. Have to respect.
4. Another Diamond: First up today. Never seen a heavy track but always handled soft. Has won here in the past. Best runs in the last should have her competitive here.
6. Star Stealer: Last run on heavy won by 5L in this class of race. Five runs this prep winning first up in easier grade than this.. then has been very close all runs since apart from last start when did a lot wrong. Flying and the wetter the better.
7. Nikitas: Well backed type. Last prep couldn’t even win a CL2 over 1600m at Hawksbury. 2Yo winner back in 2015 last win. Struggle to suggest myself especially on heavy.
8. Jarrah Twist: Likes all track types but hasn’t won last 4 heavy track runs. Fairly beaten last start at Stawell.
9. Sovereign Duke: Bm-70 grade winner last prep. Ran nicely first up at Bendigo. Never seen on Heavy but goes okay on soft. Will continue to improve but has a terrible second up record.
10. Reigning Meteor: Heavy tracks are his jazz but is he up to this class? First up here.
Comments: I want to take on Marwood here. I really feel the distance isn’t suitable for him. I also want to take on Nikitas as I don’t think the horse is well priced according to it’s form. The same goes for Another Diamond. The two that standout at the right odds are Star Stealer and Heza Bobby Dazzler.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Star Stealer – 1 unit Each-Way @ $10/$2.9
Warrnambool Race 7 – 5500m – Grand National Steeplechase
1. Lord of the Song: Fairly beaten the past two starts by some really good types over the Steeples. Heavier track today certainly has him well in, but he is a rising 11YO and top weight here makes it very tough. Still good enough to do it!
2. No Song No Supper: Finished behind Lord of the Song last start at Oakbank. Has to improve onwards and upwards to be beating him here today.
3. I’ll’Ava’Alf: Very nice lead in win over the 2350m but this is a big step up to 5500m today from a 2350m run which is a bit of a concern for me. Ignore the previous start and rate best on the run prior. Has the ability to go well.
4. Lucky Tonight: Nice Steeple win last start at Pakenham. Went well behind some good types last prep and clearly is one to consider.
5. Regina Coeli: Won this back in 2015 on a heavy track. Last year fairly beaten 41L disappointingly and runs since haven’t inspired confidence. Clearly has the ability on her best.
6. Spying on You: Strong lead in run and win at Oakbank. Up 1.5kg today for the win but is going well. Never won on a heavy track a HUGE negative.
8. Slowpoke Rodriguez: Lovely named horse. Measured up over the Steeples and Hurldes in the past but his best hasn’t ever been this good. Has something to prove here for mine and looks under the odds.
9. Undergroundfighter: Strong lead in run behind Spying on You and looks well weighted here. Another with no heavy track form as a negative though so has to prove himself here.
10. Mannertone: Never measured up in the past over these distances. Hasn’t won in a while and hasn’t been good enough against the best company.
12. Saddle the Stars: Continues to run well over the hurdles and Steeples without getting wins on the board. Never won on heavy a negative.
13. Deliberate: Ran a very good race 1.3L 2nd to Slowpoke Rodriguez last start. Previous start 2nd to Zed Em. Looks to be wanting further. Poor record on wet.
15. Al Shahn: Never placed from 9 starts on heavy in the past. Not bad two back but hard to have today.
Comments: Slowpoke and I’ll’Ava’Alf are both under the odds i need but clearly deserve to be in favourtism today. Lord of the Song is the overs at the price being offered even with top weight.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Lord of the Song E/W
Warrnambool Race 8 – 2350m – Warrnambool Cup
1. Observational: Never seen a heavy track in the past and last run on soft was a big fail. Back in grade here so to speak. Newitt back on a negative.. top weight. Tough ask here but obviously going well.
2. Grey Lion: Horrible run first up with no real excuses. Best runs in the past have all been on dry tracks and i’m not convinced the track suits him one bit here.
3. High Church: Never won on a wet track in the past. Lead in runs have certainly been decent enough to be presented as a top chance in the markets, but he is certainly very short.
5. Araldo Junior: Hit and miss in the past. Runs on wet tracks in the past have clearly been his very best in Australia. Breathing issues a big concern leading into this based on last start run, but he does look well fit enough to be winning this with the right run.
6. Dylanson: Only run on heavy was a win but last three runs on soft were only fair at best. Lead in run didn’t show much.
7. Dances on Stars: Disappointment last start leading into this run. Handles all conditions but untested at this distance. Hard to have.
8. Reigning: Not going over the hurdles strangely. Form over this distance isn’t terrible from the past but has never won over the distance. Did have a Group 3 3rd on record behind Amelie’s Star on a soft track at Rosehill in 2015. Wasn’t terrible tow back behind Kourkam either at Oakbank over 2150m. Give some thought.
9. Survived: Old mate doesn’t win out of turn. Hasn’t won in a year. Last two starts on Heavy fairly beaten. Last start was his best run of the prep… has ability but has to improve.
11. You’ll Dash for Cash: Never won over this distance or in this class. Three back win was solid but not the best form line. Others preferred.
12. Unfurl: Unlucky run two back in Listed company and then came out in much easier last start and blew them away. 4 runs in the past on heavy for 0 places… 3 on soft for 0 wins.
13. Stellarized: Three back won well in much easier grade on soft. Never measured up on heavy an issue.
14. Super Mover: Poor form coming into this and really hard to suggest anything better than a place.
Comments: Not keen to play here. Araldo Junior the only one at the odds I could consider.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Araldo Junior E/W
