Welcome to The Profits preview for the Warrnambool Carnival Day 2 on 3 May 2017. We didn’t start the carnival off on the way we had hoped on Day 1, so it’s time for us to make up for it on Day 2. We are looking wider and betting less overall, spreading our bets throughout the card hoping to land a few bets and come out well ahead. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Warrnambool Race 8 – Jungle Edge – 3.75 units @ $3.40. Forgeress 0.25 units @ $41
Other Bet
Warrnambool Race 5 – Something to Share – 1.5 units @ $2.25 to win
Warrnambool Race 6 – Angelology – 1 units @ $4.60 to win. Honey Steel’s Gold – 0.5 unit @ $10 to win
Warrnambool Race 9 – Jose Wales 1 unit @ $7.5 to win
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Warrnambool Race 4 – 1400m – Duncans Liquir BM-70
1. Wannon Warrior: Won three runs in a row this prep over 1200m. Only run on soft last prep was a fail. Unproven on wet and top weight.
2. Fulgur: Been competing over in WA the past years and is now a 9YO. Last 8 runs saw him not get within 3.1L of a win. Best seen over further. Never won over this distance.
3. Blue Viper: Won 3 from 5 on Soft in the past and has run okay on heavy in the past before. First up failed with top weight in BM-64 grade over 1300m and takes a big step up in grade. Did win last prep over 1600m in BM-70 grade in Adelaide. Best is good enough to run well.
4. Kellstorm: Irish import. Has won on heavy in the past in maiden grade. Measured up to 3YO grade over in the UK. This looks a top class import and for a 4YO looks well suited.
5. Pacodali: Another Weir import. Irish bred and raced. Went okay back home on Heavy and soft and won a 1800m maiden back home. Well beaten over 1400m in WFA-G3 company when attempted it. Win wouldn’t be a total shock.
6. Siga La Vaca: Always goes well on wetter tracks but hasn’t won in a fairly long time. Best has been seen over slightly further and never won in this class.
7. Lord Tennyson: Fairly beaten first up over 1200m. Never won in this grade in the past but last year did win at this course and distance in 3YB-70 grade on heavy. Will lead them around again.
8. Sniper: Three runs this prep in similar grade and has been beaten on all three occasions without being a threat. Back to 1400m today and wetter track which should suit based on past.
9. Two Hats: 8L maiden winner last prep before running not too bad in 3YO grade at Caulfield and winning a Hurdle after that. Clearly needs further.
10. Our Elliott: BM-58 grade winner last prep. First two runs here have been average but not great. Up in class and never won on heavy.
Comments: Wide open race with 4-5 chances. Pacodali is the one that appeals greatly here. Measured up to 3YO-LR grade back in Ireland over 1400m 4th on a soft track. Has the ability and form.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Pacodali E/W
Warrnambool Race 5 – Decron Maiden Hurdle – 3200m
1. Abebe: Had his chances all prep and hasn’t been able to measure up to a maiden over the hurdles. Wetter isn’t better either.
2. Artie’S Gold: Always showed a bit of ability staying wise on the flat and looks the ideal type to take the step up here today. Big issue on the wet though with 20 flat runs for 0 wins on soft or heavy.
3. Berning Desire: 2nd in the past on heavy in a Maiden Hurdle but was beaten 13L. Three runs this prep leading in and hasn’t run too badly. If backed you clearly have to take note.
4. Black Tie: Last two attempts over the Hurdles has been very well beaten on both occasions. Four runs this prep over 2000-2500m and has been running well in easy grade. Looks well set for another attempt over the hurdles today.
5. Bring Back: Open grade 2000m winner. In the past had shown enough to suggest he should be able to measure up to the jumping grades. First attempt was well beaten behind Arch Fire and the two horses in front (behind Arch Fire) have run since and failed to fire.
6. Cable Bay: Two hurdle runs heading into this. Ran a nice run first run over hurdles 4th behind Renew. Went around favourite last start but was beaten 3.8L. Has to improve again but clearly is one to watch.
7. Martong: Well fancied in the betting here. Went around favourite over 3000m at course last prep. Was blocked for runs but did stay it out. Looks the type to handle this today.
8. McNulty: Not been within 5L of a win the past 8 runs. Been going horrible and hates it very wet. Hard to suggest.
9. Pentomatic: Two hurdle runs heading into this. Wasn’t terrible at Bendigo two back but last start was horrible. Has to improve.
10. Something to Share: Quality horse. Ran a very good 3rd in the Stawell Cup last start coming off a 2nd in the Bendigo Hurdle. Only thing that could do him in here is the ground, but I think he will be fine.
Comments: Happy to back in Something to Share.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: 1.5 units – Something to Share @ $2.25 to win
Warrnambool Race 6 – 3200m – Galleywood Hurdle
1. Arch Fire: Goes well over the Hurdles but the form around the last start win isn’t anything to be overly happy about heading into a harder race. Certainly a good horse and will love the track conditions.
2. Angelology: Top class jumper who has the top level of ability. Ran nicely enough as a lead in when well down the track behind Hans Holbein on the flat. Two back won at Oakbank very well over Now and Zen which is looking to be a good form line on yesterdays run.
3. Urban Explorer: Disappointing lead in run when 40L down the track behind Angelology last start. Previous preps don’t inspire enough confidence.
4. Honey Steel’s Gold: Went around short priced favourite last start at Oakbank but failed to finish the race. Previous starts Group 2 7th over 3200m and is a hurdle winner. Ignore last start and rate on better runs in the past. Will enjoy the wet track much more today than the good one last start.
5. About The Journey: Beaten a long way yesterday over the hurdles and I doubt they back him up here.
6. Renew: The one to watch out for. Two hurdle runs and has gone around short priced favourite on both occasions and been very impressive. Never placed on Heavy in the past but looks the type to have no issues over the hurdles with breeding.
7. Tremec: Form doesn’t read well on past runs including the 9.1L defeat over the Hurdles two back behind Angelolgy. Would need a form reversal.
8. John Monash: Wasn’t winning much money over the jumps over in the UK as it really wasn’t the top grade of races, but he was well placed and was doing enough to compete well. Certainly nice lead in run on the flat and looks well suited here at the weights… but will show better over further.
Comments: I want to take on John Monash here today so that’s one to take on. Tremec and Urban Explorer are also two i’ll dismiss which takes it down to Arch Fire, Angelology, Honey Steel’s Gold and Renew. I really feel Arch Fire is up against it here with the weight. Honey Steel’s Gold is the clear overs in the race while Angelology Is the one to beat on my ratings.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Angelology – 1 units @ $4.60 to win. Honey Steel’s Gold – 0.5 unit @ $10 to win.
Warrnambool Race 8 – 1200m – Wangoom Handicap
1. Jungle Edge: Obvious type here with the top weight. Group 3 winner on the heavy two back at Rosehill over 1200m and WFA-G1 3rd last start over 1400m behind Tivaci. Has been running amazingly well. Very well suited here.
2. Mahuta: Horrible as expected first up over the unsuitable 1100m. Best runs in the past have been over 1400-1600m so the 1200m is short of his best. No heavy track form to speak of.
3. Royal Rapture: Nice trial as a lead in here today and has to be respected. Last prep put five wins in a row on the board over much further. Distance is only query.
4. Ulmann: Last prep measured up at the top level with 1400m open class wins on multiple occasions. 1200m is just short of his best, but clearly will still run very well here. Never won on soft or heavy.
5. Tried and Tired: Listed grade winner two preps back over 1400m at Flemington but four runs since last prep were all horrible. Soft track form is super and should have no troubles handling it today.. just needs to find a return to form and measure up over the shorter distance.
6. Yesterday’s Songs: Won this last year but hasn’t gone close to a win since. First up run didn’t show me enough to suggest he could measure up here.
7. Stellar Collision: Very strong win two back at Cranbourne but failed to fire last start at Flemington. Not convinced on his ability on the wet but watch for money coming as this is a good horse.
8. Well Sprung: Mixes his form and has never won on the wet. Poor lead in run after two previous solid runs. Tough ask here again but has the ability.
9. Telopea: Huge last prep with Group class placings and a 3L 8th in Group 1 class over 1400m at Caulfield. Goes well first up but best has been seen over 1400m not 1200m. Never seen on Heavy.
10. Magic Consol: Horsham winner last start beating Puccini. Previous runs were nice and solid but all best runs have been over further than this and this is a big ask first up.
11. Forgeress: Mares placed 2nd two preps back behind Telopea on soft. Mares winner over 1300m on heavy. Only run last prep was a fail. Will love it this wet. Looks a blowout chance.. 7 runs never missed a place at this track.
12. Royal Island: Getting on in age and hasn’t won a race since 2015. First up today. Ran 2nd in this last year first up. Form since then was average.
13. Noela’s Choice: Not seen in a while since running 4th behind Forgeress at Sandown in mares grade on heavy. Goes well on heavy but hasn’t won since 2015 and this is a big step up in class again.
15. Chase the Horizon: Strong 3rd behind Miss Vista last start at Caulfield. Only run on heavy in the past was a win and was scratched from Saturday to run here. Has ability.
Comments: Very keen to back Jungle Edge even with the weight. He is impossible to take on at the price. Forgeress at the price on offer is big overs first up here. Loves it wet.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Jungle Edge – 3.75 units @ $3.40. Forgeress 0.25 units @ $41
Warrnambool Race 9 – 1000m – Warrnambool Hyundai BM-70
3. Jose Wales: First up and loves it wet. Last prep finished off in harder company as 2nd favourite going around at Kyneton beaten by Smart Dart. Doesn’t win out of hurt and has been beaten short priced favourite many times last prep, but this is his easiest race for a while and gets back to the heavy and loves this track.
4. Removal: BM-58 winner to end last prep. Two runs this prep. Horrible first up but in BM-64 grade last start won very well at Ballarat from on speed. Has to improve but does rate well.
5. Bulls ‘n’ Bears: CL3 winner at Randwick two preps back. Country grade CL3 winner last prep. First up here today and obviously has ability but never won run well on heavy.
7. Jimmian: Hasn’t run well since 2015. Never measured up on a wet track. Hard to suggest a place.
8. Bay of Biscay: BM-64 grade winner last start on heavy at Werribee. Certainly didn’t do a lot right but got the win. This is much harder but clearly he goes well on wet tracks.
9. Inn Keeper: Lightly raced type. Handled the soft track last start but this is the testing material.
10. He’s The Sheriff: Maiden winner this prep. Never won on wet but has always run well. This is a big jump in class again.
11. Crystal Pistol: 3 runs on soft but yet to get a win. Never won in this grade either. Goes well at the track but and has ability.
12. Ruby Eyes: Nice run third yesterday.. Surely doesn’t back up here.
Comments: Removal and Inn Keeper are the two fancied types I want to take on. Jose Wales and I Am the General are the two I want to be backing here. I just hope Bulls ‘n’ Bears doesn’t produce a better run than I think it can, but it is the value.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Jose Wales 1 unit @ $7.5 to win.
