Welcome to The Profits preview for the Warrnambool Carnival Day 1 on 2 May 2017. Coming off a very nice day at Caulfield where we landed a $21 fixed ($28 SP) winner, we have two bets on the card for day one of the Warrnambool carnival over the jumps that we are keen to bet into. I’m extremely keen to be going hard (or going home) on Strike the Stars in the second race. I have the horse rated short single figures and feel the bookies aren’t giving the horse enough credit for the run behind Arch Fire last start. Expect Strike the Stars will go all the way with this field. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bets
Warrnambool Race 2 – Strike The Stars – 2.25 units Each-Way @ $13/$3.30
Next Best Bet
Warrnambool Race 1 – Hale Soriano 1.5 units @ $2.70
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Warrnambool Race 1 – 3200m – George Taylor Memorial Maiden Hurdle
1. All Well: 13 runs on the flat/hurdles for 0 wins. Last attempt over the hurdles last year was a total fail. Looks a tough race to break through in.
2. Bonfire: measured up to Open Class this prep on the flat with a close 2nd to Hard Call over 2000m. Best runs hae been seen over the 2000m or below IMO so there is certainly a question over the horse staying a tough trip 2000m up to 3200m.
3. Darebin: R-58 winner over 1600m back in 2016 and hasn’t been within 3.6L since over 1600-2000m. Never the grade on the flat but trainer certainly knows what it takes to make them jumpers.
4. Felix Bay: Never measured up to being better than a BM-64 grader on the flat. Proved that he can at least stay with the first up run at Pakenham when fairly beaten behind The Dominator. Has to improve here. Never won on heavy.
5. Hale Soriano: Last win was over in France on a soft track in open grade over 2800m so we know he is a stayer. Went very close in BM-90 grade at Flemington in January but has been well beaten in all runs since. Finally finds a wet track… has to be respected.
6. Like You Look: 4YO that has never gone closer than 8.2L over any distance range in the past. Struggle to suggest on flat form.
8. Space Invader: Beaten 10L or further the past five attempts. Not one i’d be looking to go near.
9. Trouble Bound: 25 starts for 0 wins on the flat or over hurdles. Ran nicely enough at Pakenham 2L off The Dominator so is certainly proven at the distance. This looks a harder task on paper.
10. Who Says I’m Ready: BM-64 winner over 2200m in the past. 5 runs at these distances and never won obviously with just the one place. Never placed on heavy.
Comments: I’m happy to take on Bonfire today as i’m not convinced one bit of the 2000m up to 3200m for a horse that is proven at the 2000m only. The clear standout on my ratings isHale Soriano who has the French form to tell us he will be staying on and loves it wet… Weir will have the horse right for this.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Hale Soriano 1.5 units @ $2.70
Warrnambool Race 2 – 3200m – TAB.Com.Au Maiden Hurdle
1. Ancient King: Loves a wet track and looks the ideal hurdle horse. Last year did go over the Hurdles and was a defeated $2.10 favourite 2nd to Livery on Heavy. Went around a very well backed $2.8 favourite at Terang two weeks back on the Heavy and missed a place for the first time ever on heavy. Better than that and the step up in distance will clearly suit. Has been set for this.
2. Big Country: 11 starts for 1 place (not this year). Never been seen over these distances in the past so is a complete unknown now with Eric Musgrove to go over the hurdles. Drifter since opening.
4. He’s A Genius: Last win was in January 2016 in a CL1 over 1875m. Measured up two months back over the Hurdles at course and distance when 1.5L 2nd to O’Ceirins Secret. Was a decent enough type on the flat but has to prove itself on the heavy. Has been backed.
5. Marquateer: 15 starts for 0 wins. Previous runs over the hurdles have been less than desirable to measure up to this class. Hard to suggest.
6. Oerter: BM-64 grade winner two back before making the jump up to the 3200m hurdles again. Last prep ran 12L 3rd and last start at Oakbank was 12L 5th. A lot of improvement still needed.
7. Sir Walter Scott: Has the name of a UK import type and that’s exactly what he is. Galileo bred last win was in 2012 in 2YO grade. Two runs this prep over the hurdles has been beaten significantly both attempts.
8. Strike The Stars: Last two runs over hurdles have had a lot of merit. The 2nd to Angelology back in 2015 is not to be sneezed at. Last start over 3200m when 3rd to Arch Fire, he ran very well with About The Journey only half a length off. This was a top quality hurdle race and he looks ideally placed back to maiden class here. Very clean jumper. Amazing price
9. Tangara: Failed both runs this prep over the hurdles. Would need a huge form turn around to justify a placing.
10. Unabashed: Bm-64 grade winner two back at Wangaratta and has run well since. Big jump up to the hurdles today and has a lot to prove. Probably under the odds simply based on yard.
Comments: Ancient King obviously looks a nice type and will stay and jump well but the form isn’t great coming in. The price looks unders today. I’ll say the same about He’s A Genius who failed to place last start over 2700m at Stawell and was 2nd in a weaker hurdle two back at course and distance. Strike the Stars comes out of a fast run hurdle at Pakenham where he ran 5.8L 3rd off Arch Fire who is the Australian Hurdle winner!!! Ran About the Journey to 0.5L also. Very keen to bet hard at the double figure odds.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Strike The Stars – 2.25 units Each-Way @ $13/$3.30.
Warrnambool Race 6 – 3450 – Brierly Steeplechase
1. Zed Em: Top class jumper that has gone to a new level this prep it seems. Two quality runs leading in and obviously a clear top pick to beat.
2. Nishiazabu: Goes well at this distance but never won at this track from 4 attempts in the past. Lead in runs saw him fairly beaten by Zed Em and didn’t run too well over further and had Thumps. Has to return to form to measure up.
3. Now And Zen: A top quality hurdler that has the runs on the board. Good lead in run over the 3600m and looks well placed here. Key rival to the favourite.
4. Dormello Mo: GB import. Like to see this but two runs to date haven’t been up to scratch. Pulled up lame after first run and then well beaten over further next start. Suspect the issue that caused the lameness is lingering and I couldn’t be confident here.
5. Gold Medals: Strong heavy track win heading into this prep. Won at course and similar distance in July last year and loves a wet track. Have to respect his ability.
6. About The Journey: Quality jumper that continues to run well. Nice run 2nd behind Arch Fire as a lead in and the heavier track will suit better. I really think he is going as well as he ever has and will give them a shake here.
7. Mannertone: A while between drinks and very well beaten the past two starts behind Zed Em. Has to improve.
8. King of the Forest: Not up to this grade on the recent runs and past runs over the jumps.
9. Western Kingdom: 6L hurdle winner last prep. Obviously a nice type and jumps well but this is another class up and I think beyond him.
10. Universal Sound: 3450m Steeplechase winner back in 2014 but shown nothing since. Can’t have.
Comments: Zed Em is the top pick here but Now and Zen and Gold Medals are not far behind either. About The Journey is the forgotten runner at odds that brings a strong Arch Fire form line into this.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Zed Em to win. Also back About The Journey
