Welcome to The Profits preview for Stakes Day at Flemington on 11 November 2017. The rail remains in the 3m for the final day of the Flemington Carnival and we are excited to finish hopefully with some very strong results. Oaks day didn’t work out for us with all 3 of our horses given no chance in their races due to uncontrollable circumstances (missing the start, throwing a shoe and mentally off, plus pulling up lame) so we hope for some fair runs today. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 3 – Fastnet Tempest – 8 units @ $2.45
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 2 – Tarquin – 2.5 units to win @ $4.40. Tarquin 3.5 units to place @ $1.80
Best Each-Way
Flemington Race 5 – Wheal Leisure – 1 unit Each-Way @ $10.00/$2.90
Best Value
Flemington Race 8 – Harlem – 1 unit Each-Way @ $26/$6.50
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 7, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 9
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m – AAMI Maribyrnong Plate
1. Bionics: Strong 2nd at Moonee Valley last start behind Setsuna. Can run well here.
3. Run Naan: Maiden winner at Bendigo first up off two solid trials. Step up again here but looks a decent type.
4. Encryption: Fancied Godolphin runner who ran well first up at Caulfield for 3rd. Should be fine back down the straight and will be in the race a long way.
6. King: Two strong trials leading into this. McEvoy rides for Snowden yard and they put blinkers on. Well bred colt and has been backed.
7. Northern Voyage: Unseen Waterhouse runner first up today off no official trials. Winkers on but hasn’t been backed solidly.
8. Really Swish: Unseen Corstens runner with only fair breeding. Small backing since opening price.
10. Belzella: Nicely bred McEvoy runner who has attracted support since opening price. Respect stable.
11. Final Choice: Hayes horse that ran 4th in a trial on a heavy 8. Nolen rides.. hasn’t been found in market.
12. Raise the Roof: Unseen Nichols runner. Good breeding but long double figure odds for reasons.
Comments: Tough race to start the day. Like the look of what Encryption did first up and think the horse has a load of ability to continue on with it here. Good barrier to find a nice spot also.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Encryption E/W
Flemington Race 2 – 2000m – Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation Plate
1. Kourkam: Three runs this prep in Adelaide and yet to break through. Step up in grade here but going the right way about things this prep.
2. Tarquin: Cummings runner that ran well third in the Moe Cup from back running on. Best in past would measure up.
3. Oncidium Ruler: Failed to show anything first up so really needs to make a huge jump second up. Fitness query.
4. Lucques: Change of trainer since last prep and failed to show anything two runs to date and really wants further on form.
5. Have Plenty: Just beat home Kourkam two back and similar weight scale today. Turned the tables on Temps Voleur the next start. Can run well.
6. Shamkiyr: Five runs this prep and yet to run top 2. Did compete in something easier as favourite last start and couldn’t get the job done.
7. Tiger Tim: 2000m strong winner at Ballarat two back and then ran poorly at Geelong the last start. Looks to have ability on the previous start but has to improve.
8. Meet and Greet: Looked well at Bendigo in the Cup last start but just didn’t see out the 2400m. Previous run at Caulfield ran very well 2nd to Violate.
9. Knowable: Well up in class here today coming off a run last start at Bendigo. Up to 2000m here… query on seeing it out.
10. Kastor: Yarra Valley maiden winner last start. Huge jump needed here.
Comments: Tarquin maps for the perfect 1 out 1 back run here today off what looks only an average tempo that will be setup for the horse that sustain the best closing 600m of the race. On all the form, Tarquin is going the best of any horse currently in this race and has the late dash in the legs to put these away.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Tarquin – 2.5 units to win @ $4.40. Tarquin 3.5 units to place @ $1.80
Flemington Race 3 – 1600m – 3AW Trophy
1. Fastnet Tempest: Strong 2nd in the Sale Cup where they gaped the rest of the field. Came from the back while winner mapped better and got a better run. Stays at 1600m here and gets a good mapping from the barrier. Blinkers on, ready to win.
2. Man of His Word: Three runs this prep and yet to break through. Up to 1600m today and should run well, but this is a tougher ask again in this grade. Has ability to measure up.
3. Raw Impulse: Every chance last start at Sale but just beaten by better types. Has to improve here to place.
4. Jacquinot Bay: Disappointing last start in the Toorak but did get back and ran ok still. Previous runs not bad but not to the grade of winning this.
5. Master Reset: Horrible run last start wide throughout. Ignore run. Best could rate ok here.
6. Coldstone: Ran a decent race last start in Sale 2nd up but lacks the genuine dash needed for this grade of race.
8. Aurum Spirit: Huge jump in class. Happy to simply take on here.
Comments: Fastnet Tempest showed massive closing speed at Sale last start and is the clear follow-forward run of the race. Even if they don’t run it along solidly, the race will shape to suit Fastnet Tempest… can’t see the horse getting beat without genuine excuses.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Fastnet Tempest – 8 units @ $2.45
Flemington Race 4 – 1400m – Sensis Digital Trophy
2. Lord Aspen: 1200m winner in BM-90 last start at Morphetville. Good solid win and can go well here up to 1400m.
3. Bassett: Improved significantly last start at Moonee Valley and takes a step up to 1400m today. Was very unlucky last start and Hellova Street has franked the form for here.
4. Howard Be Thy Name: Didn’t go close to a win last prep. Really hard to suggest here over 1400m.
5. Moher: Two runs this prep and well beaten on both occasions. Needs to improve to place here.
6. Duke of Brunswick: Five runs this prep but yet to win. Disappointing run last start… two runs back fairly beaten behind Sirconni also. Has to be at top in yard.
7. Lite’n In My Veins: Flew home last start with Rich Charm at Caulfield held up for runs and looks ideally placed back up to 1400m today at this track. Has to be respected.
8. God’s in Him: First up runner. Goes well at distance range. Last prep failed to get a win but did go well 2nd up. Can go well here.
9. Sadaqa: Was pretty decent last start over 1200m at Moonee Valley ridden with a sit. Up in distance finally and a good run wouldn’t shock.
10. Ruettiger: Just not winning this prep and a throw at the stumps today up in distance. Has to improve again.
11. Mubakkir: Nice enough run throughout last start but then didn’t finish off. Not going well enough.
12. Longeron: Old mate first up never won first up in past. Take on.
14. Give Us a Go: Just not going well enough to get the win here.
16. Spearhead: Going well but huge jump in class for a non-winner.
Comments: Lord Aspen, Basset and Lite’n In My Veins come off very solid runs. Lite’n in My Veins will be getting back. Looks a class above these potentially with the right run but I have the horse mapping to need a bit of luck. I liked what Bassett did last start and from the barrier maps to get a nice spot just off the speed. Lord Aspen the same.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Backing Bassett and Lord Aspen while saver betting Lite’n In My Veins.
Flemington Race 5 – 2600m – Queen Elizabeth Stakes
1. Qewy: Likely to push forward and lead or sit outside of Grey Lion today coming off a strongly run 2400m Bendigo Cup win. Keeps the 59kg and will be significantly better second up.
3. Kiwia: Loomed last start at Bendigo as the winner top of the straight but just couldn’t get past Qewy. Was at his complete top and despite 1kg swing, I have real concerns he just can’t improve any further and the distance or 1kg won’t make a difference. Take on at price.
4. Vengeur Masque: Geelong Cup winner and ran a blinder again in the Lexus 2nd to Cismontane. Up to 2800m and should run well again.
5. Cool Chap: Fairly beaten last start in the slowly run Moonee Valley Cup. Hasn’t run over this distance for the prep and in the past only measured up around some stayers who have failed to make the grade since. Not a horse I’m keen to back
6. Gallic Chieftain: Blinkers on. Got back and ran on strongly in the Geelong Cup when given a ride that was against his strengths and from the barrier today he won’t be stuck the rail.
7. Grey Lion: Sat behind the leaders last start and may not have had the race run to his strengths, but even so, had a very economical run and has his chances at the right times. Need to improve here.
8. Violate: Ran on well covering ground and just missed in the Geelong Cup. Was a bold run and is well weighted enough here to be competitive.
9. Tunes: Will see out the distance. Good run 2nd on lead in voer in Adelaide beaten favourite but this is another level needed.
10. Wheal Leisure: Got back and ran on in the Geelong Cup and went through the line brilliantly showing he will not only get the distance today but wants it. Most importantly, back at Flemington finally he won’t have to cover a huge amount of extra ground.
11. Bettyrae Ruby: Unplaced 4th as favourite last start at Sale over 2200m in BM64. Has to improve clearly.
Comments: Qewy has to lump a huge weight around here and most likely has to lead them around as well if Grey Lion doesn’t push the tempo fully. It will be a tough ask. The horse that stands out to me that wants this distance is Wheal Leisure.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Wheal Leisure – 1 unit Each-Way @ $10.00/$2.90
Flemington Race 6 – 2000m – 7News Matriarch Stakes
1. Heavens Above: Never been able to run out a strong 2000m in the past is a big issue. Fair runs this prep but not this for mine.
2. Prompt Response: Strong run last start and just missed at Flemington somehow missing a place. Up to 2000m first time today.
3. Flying Jess: Ran a respectable race from the back last start but just not up to the grade. 1600m up to 2000m a huge query.
4. Consommateur: Failed last start over 1600m dead last. Has won in past over these distances but that was on Heavy. Not likely.
5. Payroll: Two solid enough lead in runs but this is a big jump in class and distance. Has to improve.
7. Tahanee: Good start to finish win in much easier grade. Step up in distance a query for the horse but Weir now has her going well finally and suited at Flemington.
8. Smart As You Think: Fairly beaten last two starts behind Falika and tough to see her turning the tables here. Want to take her on.
9. Token of Love: Brave on speed run last start and just found one too good in Falika. Hard to see the improvement needed.
10. Savapinski: Ran a blinder last start over 1600m 2nd to Lubiton but fairly beaten on the day. Up to 2000m a query but should get it fine on breeding.
11. Star Patriot: Been competing in much lower grade races than this. Have to take on.
12. Cedar Grande: Ran a respectable 3rd last start behind Falika. Improvement needed to win this.
Comments: Wide open race now that Falika is scratched. Prompt Response gets the nod from Savapinski
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 7, 10
Strategy: Prompt Response E/W
Flemington Race 7 – 1200m – Darley Classic
1. Chautauqua: 1.5L 4th in the Everest last start and comes back to a track that will play fair for him on the day with every chance afforded to storm home from the back.
2. Redzel: Goes well down the straight and is 3 starts for 3 wins this prep including a WFA win in The Everest last start. Has to be respected.
3. Vega Magic: Ran horrible at Moonee Valley last start in WFA-G1 as favourite and may just not have handled the track or night racing.. either way wasn’t ready to win from the yard. Will need to be much better today.
4. Terravista: Struggled first up and best runs have always been first up. 7 runs at track and only missed a place once.
5. Malaguerra: Two huge runs leading into this today and looks primed and ready to produce a PB that can win here. Respect his top class ability and he is flying. Goes very well at track.
6. Impending: Continues to run well and got a Group 1 win to end last prep over further. First up just beaten 2nd to In Her Time. Has to be respected on form.
7. Redkirk Warrior: Good win down the straight first up in Group 2 company before failing to fire a shot in the Everest. Needs to be at best and not sure that is in WFA?
8. Clearly Innocent: 8th in the Everest and that was a good effort. Previous run decent behind In Her Time. Just not top Group 1 level for mine.
9. Rock Magic: Gets his chance here but he was very disappointing last start at Moonee Valley over the 1200m. His best in the past should go well.
10. Spieth: Old mate ran home well but was very far off them. Just not up to the same level this prep for mine.
11. Man from Uncle: Well beaten last start down the straight when backed on the day. Huge jump in class. Not for me.
13. Missrock: Every chance last start at Flemington and just ran into Rich Charm. Has to improve to place here.
14. Supercash: Good WFA-G2 win two back and then fairly beaten last start. Just not up to this grade for mine.
Comments: As the Quaddie numbers suggest, this is a wide open race down the straight with several key chances. I would find it very hard to bet up hard here.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 12
Strategy: Back both Redzel and In Her Time.
Flemington Race 8 – 2000m – Emirates Stakes
1. Happy Clapper: Not the worst run in the Cox Plate but really didn’t appreciate the bumping dual early and obviously wants them to run it along slower. Not convinced with 6 runs 0 wins at 2000m that this horse is a 2000m horse. May just be a miler.
2. It’s Somewhat: Disappointing run at Moonee Valley second up and wasn’t anywhere near top. Needs to step up here.
3. Gailo Chop: WFA-G1 winner over 2000m two back at Caulfield when ran them around at a reasonable tempo. Over did it last start at Moonee Valley. Goes well at Flemington and 2000m.
4. Tosen Stardom: Group 1 winner two back at Caulfield and then found nothing last start at Flemington. May have just needed the run and being set for this race. Speed will be on with Gailo Chop in the race.
5. Sense of Occasion: Best suited by wetter tracks. Won’t get that here and finds another firm track. Pass.
7. Folkswood: Recorded a decent rating in the Cox Plate when was able to take a sit and see out the race better than most. WIll appreciate the tempo today.
9. Harlem: Ran a similar first 600m last start in the Lexus to the brilliant win 4 back at Caulfield. May just not have seen out the distance based on previous runs and has to be respected back to 2000m with speed on.
10. Gingernuts: Running well enough at home but nothing like the previous preps for mine. Just missed in Group 1 company last start and takes step up to WFA-G1 here and has to improve.
11. Odeon: Gone from strength to strength this prep and won well in G3 company the past two starts. Huge jump in class today but expect him to run a bold race even at the weights.
12. So Si Bon: 1600m up to 2000m. Hard horse to trust. We know he is good enough to run very well here but trainer is not trustable in terms of where he has placed this horse.
13. The Taj Mahal: Has run well in the past over this distance for 2nd in Group 1 class including this prep. Ran ok first up.
14. Samovare: Fairly beaten in Group 1 two back at Caulfield so went back to Group 3 and missed. Hard to suggest winning this.
15. Cliff’s Edge: Down in the weights and ran two solid lead in runs. Should see out the distance but will need to be at his very top in the yard. Not convinced.
Comments: Happy to take on both Gingernuts and Cliff’s Edge at the prices today. Also have to take on Tom Melbourne at the weights. Harlem is the standout at the odds for mine. His win at Caulfield 4 back is more than enough to break this group today and it feels as though the step back to 2000m is the key.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 9
Strategy: Harlem – 1 unit Each-Way @ $26/$6.50
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m – Emirates Airline Handicap
1. Sirconni: Good win three back at Caulfield and then ran very well all things considered two back behind Snitzepeg. Top weight the issue today.
2. Muraaqeb: Strong win two back at Moonee Valley and wasn’t disgraced behind Formality last start in Group 3. Down 3kg today and down in grade here. Looks well suited step up to 1400m.
3. Trekking: Beasten favourite last start coming off two short priced defeats previous to that. Always seems to run well but has been disappointing considering this prep. Step up to 1400m a throw at stumps it seems?
4. Andaz: Ran a respectable 8th down the straight last start behind Merchant Navy in Group 1 company. Step back in grade here, down in weight and up in distance.
5. Tamasa: Two starts two wins. Blocked for runs last start and still ran well. Respect here.
6. Tezlah: Two solid wins in a row at odds. Query over this stable though so step up to this grade I can’t have.
7. Double Jeopardy: Well fancied from the stable but has taken a while to go through the grades and has been failing in easier than this. Need to step up.
8. Faolan: Kilmore maiden winner and stable know he is a step below this. Take on.
10. Kentucky Breeze: Stawell maiden winner in poor time. Really needs to go to the next level from that.
11. Mr So and So: Didn’t measure up to 2YO grade at Morphetville last prep and then took 3 runs to get a maiden win as favourite. Always well fancied but does a lot wrong.
12. Surjin: Maiden winner three back before failing in a CL1 and in Group 3 company last start. Hard to suggest.
Comments: Muraaqeb has been working really well and home and the step up to 1400m is ideal with speed expected to be solid throughout. This is a horse with a solid final 600m and looks well suited here.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Strategy: Muraaqeb E/W
